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Several studies have found that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a risk premium for bearing downside risk; however, existing measures of downside risk have poor power for predicting returns. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel measure of downside risk, the ES-implied beta, to improve the prediction of the cross-section of asset returns. The ES-implied beta explains stock returns over the same period as well as the widely used downside beta, but also has strong predictive power over future returns. In the empirical analysis, although the widely used downside beta shows a weak relation with future expected returns, the ES-implied beta implies a statistically and economically significant risk premium of 0.5 percent per month. The predictive power of the ES-implied beta is not explained by the cross-sectional effects from the CAPM beta, size, book-to-market ratio, momentum, coskewness, cokurtosis or liquidity beta, nor does it depend on the design of the empirical analysis.

Asset Return --- Capital Markets and Capital Flows --- Expected Return --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Private Sector Development --- Private Sector Economics --- Return On Asset --- Risk Premium --- Securities Markets Policy and Regulation --- Stock Markets

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This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.

Banks and Banking Reform --- Bonds --- Debt Markets --- Durable goods --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equilibrium --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Fiscal policy --- GDP --- Income --- International Trade --- Liquidity --- Macroeconomic Analysis --- Monetary policy --- Net exports --- Private Sector Development --- Protectionism --- Real exchange rates --- Recession --- Risk premium --- Social Protections and Labor --- Trade policy --- Unemployment --- Wealth

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This paper models the global financial crisis as a combination of shocks to global housing markets and sharp increases in risk premia of firms, households and international investors in a global economic model. The model has six sectors of production and trade in 15 major economies and regions. The paper shows that the shocks observed in financial markets can be used to generate the severe economic contraction in global trade and production experienced in 2009. In particular the distinction between the production and trade of durable and non durable goods plays a key role in explaining the much larger contraction in trade than GDP experienced by most economies. The paper explores the implications of the large increase in fiscal deficits and the implications of a global trade war in response to the financial crisis.

Banks and Banking Reform --- Bonds --- Debt Markets --- Durable goods --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equilibrium --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Fiscal policy --- GDP --- Income --- International Trade --- Liquidity --- Macroeconomic Analysis --- Monetary policy --- Net exports --- Private Sector Development --- Protectionism --- Real exchange rates --- Recession --- Risk premium --- Social Protections and Labor --- Trade policy --- Unemployment --- Wealth

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Written by one of the leading experts in the field, this book focuses on the interplay between model specification, data collection, and econometric testing of dynamic asset pricing models. The first several chapters provide an in-depth treatment of the econometric methods used in analyzing financial time-series models. The remainder explores the goodness-of-fit of preference-based and no-arbitrage models of equity returns and the term structure of interest rates; equity and fixed-income derivatives prices; and the prices of defaultable securities. Singleton addresses the restrictions on t

Capital assets pricing model. --- Pricing --- Econometric models. --- Arbitrage. --- Asymptotic distribution. --- Autocorrelation. --- Autocovariance. --- Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. --- Bayesian inference. --- Bayesian probability. --- Bond Yield. --- Capital asset pricing model. --- Central limit theorem. --- Collateral Value. --- Conditional expectation. --- Conditional probability distribution. --- Conditional variance. --- Consistent estimator. --- Correlation and dependence. --- Covariance function. --- Covariance matrix. --- Credit risk. --- Credit spread (options). --- Discount function. --- Discrete time and continuous time. --- Doubly stochastic model. --- Dynamic pricing. --- Econometric model. --- Economic equilibrium. --- Economics. --- Equity premium puzzle. --- Ergodic process. --- Estimation theory. --- Estimation. --- Estimator. --- Expectations hypothesis. --- Expected value. --- Forecasting. --- Forward price. --- Forward rate. --- General equilibrium theory. --- Generalized method of moments. --- High-yield debt. --- Inference. --- Interest rate risk. --- Interest rate. --- Investment Horizon. --- Investment strategy. --- Investor. --- Joint probability distribution. --- LIBOR market model. --- Leverage (finance). --- Likelihood function. --- Liquidity premium. --- Liquidity risk. --- Margin (finance). --- Marginal rate of substitution. --- Marginal utility. --- Market Risk Premium. --- Market capitalization. --- Market liquidity. --- Market portfolio. --- Market price. --- Market value. --- Markov model. --- Markov process. --- Mathematical finance. --- Monetary policy. --- Objective Probability. --- Option (finance). --- Parameter. --- Partial equilibrium. --- Portfolio insurance. --- Precautionary savings. --- Predictability. --- Preference (economics). --- Present value. --- Price index. --- Pricing. --- Principal component analysis. --- Probability. --- Real interest rate. --- Repurchase agreement. --- Revaluation of fixed assets. --- Risk aversion. --- Risk management. --- Risk premium. --- Skewness. --- Special case. --- Standard deviation. --- State variable. --- Statistic. --- Stochastic differential equation. --- Stochastic volatility. --- Supply (economics). --- Time series. --- Underlying Security. --- Utility maximization problem. --- Utility. --- Variable (mathematics). --- Vector autoregression. --- Yield curve. --- Yield spread.

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"Inflation, in which all prices and wages in an economy rise, is mysterious. If a war breaks out in the Middle East, and the price of oil goes up, the mechanism is no great mystery-supply and demand often work pretty visibly. But if you ask the grocer why the price of bread is higher, he or she will blame the wholesaler, who will blame the baker, who will blame the wheat supplier, and so on. Perhaps the ultimate cause is a government printing more money, but there is really no way to know this for certain but to sit down in an office with statistics, armed with some decent economic theory. But current economic theory doesn't really explain why we haven't seen inflation for so long, and more and more economists think that current theory doesn't hold together, or provide much guidance for how central banks should behave if inflation does break out. Many also worry that central banks have much less power over the economy than they think they do, and much less understanding of the mechanism behind what power they do have. The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level is a comprehensive new approach to monetary policy. Economist John Cochrane argues that money has value because the government accepts it for tax payments. This insight, he argues, leads to a deep re-reading of monetary policy and institutions. Inflation comes when a government is unable to repay its debts, rather than from mismanagement of the split of debt between money and bonds. In the book, he will analyze institutional design, historical episodes, and compare fiscal theory to the Keynesian and new-Keynesian theory based on interest rate targets, and to monetarism. The book offers an overview and introduction to the range of contemporary monetary economics and history of thought as well as the fiscal theory"--

Inflation (Finance) --- Monetary policy. --- Prices. --- BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics. --- Accounting rate of return. --- Asset price inflation. --- Bond Yield. --- Central bank. --- Consumer debt. --- Consumer economy. --- Consumption (economics). --- Credit (finance). --- Credit risk. --- Credit spread (options). --- Currency crisis. --- Currency swap. --- Currency union. --- Currency. --- Debt limit. --- Debt-to-GDP ratio. --- Debt. --- Default (finance). --- Diversification (finance). --- Econometrics. --- Economic equilibrium. --- Economic planning. --- Economics. --- Exchange rate. --- Finance. --- Financial correlation. --- Financial economics. --- Fiscal adjustment. --- Fiscal gap. --- Fiscal multiplier. --- Fiscal policy. --- Fiscal space. --- Fiscal theory of the price level. --- Fixed exchange-rate system. --- Functional finance. --- GDP deflator. --- GDP-linked bond. --- Government budget balance. --- Government debt. --- Inflation swap. --- Inflation targeting. --- Inflation tax. --- Inflation. --- Interest Cost. --- Interest rate risk. --- Interest rate. --- Keynesian economics. --- Liability (financial accounting). --- Liquidity premium. --- Macroeconomic model. --- Macroeconomics. --- Marginal rate of substitution. --- Mark-to-market accounting. --- Market Risk Premium. --- Market clearing. --- Market liquidity. --- Market price. --- Microeconomic reform. --- Modern Monetary Theory. --- Monetarism. --- Monetary Theory. --- Monetary authority. --- Monetary reform. --- Monetary system. --- Money market. --- Money multiplier. --- Nominal interest rate. --- Price Change. --- Price controls. --- Price elasticity of demand. --- Price fixing. --- Price index. --- Price level. --- Public finance. --- Quantity theory of money. --- Real business-cycle theory. --- Real interest rate. --- Real versus nominal value (economics). --- Relative value (economics). --- Risk premium. --- Share price. --- Stochastic discount factor. --- Stock valuation. --- Supply (economics). --- Supply-side economics. --- Swap (finance). --- Tax and spend. --- Tax avoidance. --- Tax policy. --- Tax reform. --- Tax. --- Terminal value (finance). --- The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. --- The Wealth Effect. --- Tight Monetary Policy. --- Trade credit. --- Treasury Bill. --- Valuation (finance). --- Value (economics). --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Prices --- Monetary policy