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This is the first study to investigate the short- and long-term causal effects of a child-labor ban. The study explores the law that increased the minimum employment age from 14 to 16 in Brazil in 1998, and uncovers its impact on time allocated to schooling and work in the short term and on school attainment and labor market outcomes in the long term. The analysis uses cross-sectional data from 1998 to 2014, and applies a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to estimate the impact of the ban at different points of individuals' lifecycles. The estimates show that the ban reduced the incidence of boys in paid work activities by 4 percentage points or 27 percent. The study finds that the fall in child labor is mostly explained by the change in the proportions of boys working for pay and studying, and observes an increase in the proportion of boys only studying as a consequence. The results suggest that the ban reduced boys' participation in the labor force. The study follows the same cohort affected by the ban over the years, and finds that the short-term effects persisted until 2003 when the boys turned 18. The study pooled data from 2007 to 2014 to check whether the ban affected individuals' stock of human capital and labor market outcomes. The estimates suggest that the ban did not have long-term effects for the whole cohort, but found some indication that it did negatively affect the log earnings of individuals at the lower tail of the earnings distribution.
Child-Labor Ban --- Labor-Market Experience --- Regression Discontinuity Design --- School Attainment --- Social Protections and Labor
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Functioning democracy requires that citizens reward politicians who deliver benefits, yet there is surprisingly little causal evidence of changes in citizen views or behavior in response to specific government programs. This question is examined in Tanzania, which has recently implemented large health programs targeting diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria. Tanzania's 2010-2011 national anti-malaria campaign took place concurrently with a national household survey, which enables a regression discontinuity design based on interview date to estimate the effect of this program on the popularity of local politicians. Bed net distribution results in large, statistically significant improvements in the approval levels of political leaders, especially in malaria endemic areas. Effects are largest shortly after program implementation, but smaller effects persist for up to six months. These findings suggest that citizens update their evaluation of politicians in response to programs, especially when these services address important problems, and that the effects decay over time, but not completely.
Health --- Insecticide-Treated Bed Nets --- Malaria --- Political Economy --- Regression Discontinuity Design
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This study estimates the causal effects of a public per-student subsidy program targeted at low-cost private schools in Pakistan on student enrollment and schooling inputs. Program entry is ultimately conditional on achieving a minimum stipulated student pass rate (cutoff) in a standardized academic test. This mechanism for treatment assignment allows the application of regression-discontinuity (RD) methods to estimate program impacts at the cutoff. Data on two rounds of entry test takers (phase 3 and phase 4) are used. Modeling the entry process of phase-4 test takers as a sharp RD design, the authors find evidence of large positive impacts on the number of students, teachers, classrooms, and blackboards. Modeling the entry process of phase-3 test takers as a partially-fuzzy RD design given treatment crossovers, they do not find evidence of significant program impacts on outcomes of interest. The latter finding is likely due to weak identification arising from a small jump in the probability of treatment at the cutoff.
Communities & Human Settlements --- Education --- Education For All --- Primary Education --- Private Schools --- Regression-Discontinuity Design --- Secondary Education --- Subsidies --- Teaching and Learning --- Tertiary Education --- Pakistan
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This study estimates the causal effects of a public per-student subsidy program targeted at low-cost private schools in Pakistan on student enrollment and schooling inputs. Program entry is ultimately conditional on achieving a minimum stipulated student pass rate (cutoff) in a standardized academic test. This mechanism for treatment assignment allows the application of regression-discontinuity (RD) methods to estimate program impacts at the cutoff. Data on two rounds of entry test takers (phase 3 and phase 4) are used. Modeling the entry process of phase-4 test takers as a sharp RD design, the authors find evidence of large positive impacts on the number of students, teachers, classrooms, and blackboards. Modeling the entry process of phase-3 test takers as a partially-fuzzy RD design given treatment crossovers, they do not find evidence of significant program impacts on outcomes of interest. The latter finding is likely due to weak identification arising from a small jump in the probability of treatment at the cutoff.
Communities & Human Settlements --- Education --- Education For All --- Primary Education --- Private Schools --- Regression-Discontinuity Design --- Secondary Education --- Subsidies --- Teaching and Learning --- Tertiary Education --- Pakistan
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This study examines the effects of the extension of compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years in Turkey in 1997-which involved substantial investment in school infrastructure-on schooling outcomes and, in particular, on the equality of these outcomes between men and women, and urban and rural residents using the Turkish Demographic and Health Surveys. This policy is peculiar because it also changes the sheepskin effects (signaling effects) of schooling, through its redefinition of the schooling tiers. The policy is also interesting due to its large spillover effects on post-compulsory schooling as well as its remarkable overall effect; for instance, we find that the completed years of schooling by age 17 increases by 1.5 years for rural women. The policy equalizes the educational attainment of urban and rural children substantially. The urban-rural gap in the completed years of schooling at age 17 falls by 0.5 years for men and by 0.7 to 0.8 years for women. However, there is no evidence of a narrowing gender gap with the policy. On the contrary, the gender gap in urban areas in post-compulsory schooling widens.
Compulsory schooling --- Education --- Education for all --- Equality in education --- Gender --- Health, nutrition and population --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Population policies --- Primary education --- Regression discontinuity design --- Rural and urban --- Secondary education
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This paper exploits unique features of a recently introduced tariff schedule for natural gas in Buenos Aires to estimate the short-run impact of price shocks on residential energy utilization. The schedule induces a nonlinear and non-monotonic relationship between households' accumulated consumption and unit prices, thus generating exogenous price variation, which is exploited in a regression-discontinuity design. The results reveal that a price increase causes a prompt and significant decline in gas consumption. They also indicate that consumers respond more to recent past bills than to expected prices, which argues against the assumption that consumers have perfect awareness of complex price schedules.
Climate Change Economics --- Consumption --- Economic Theory & Research --- Elasticity Of Demand --- Energy --- Energy Consumption --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets & Market Access --- Regression Discontinuity Design --- Regulation of Public Utilities
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In the past decade, conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have become an important component of social policy in developing countries. While the impacts of these programs have been well researched with respect to their effectiveness to achieve intended outcomes, less is known about their impact on private expenditure decisions. This aspect has great policy relevance since changes in private household expenditures can either support or counteract the aim of the programs. This essay investigates the impact of a CCT program on private household expenditure decisions in nutrition, health and education which are seen as principal contributors to child human capital. First, household expenditure behavior under a CCT program is discussed based on Heckman's model on the technology of skill formation as a conceptual framework. The paper shows how intra-household preferences and perceptions on the substitutability or complementarity of investments can impact household resource allocation decisions. Subsequently, the theoretical implications are tested in the context of the Brazilian CCT program Bolsa Familia, using the Brazilian household expenditure survey. Evidence is found that households increase their private expenditure in food and education disproportionally to the amount of cash transfer, that is, more than would be expected when considering the Engel curves of the expenditures under question.
Bolsa Familia Program --- Child Human Capital --- Conditional Cash Transfer --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Gender --- Health Monitoring & Evaluation --- Household Expenditure --- Housing & Human Habitats --- Investment & Investment Climate --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Sector Development --- Regression Discontinuity Design --- Social Protections and Labor
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A recent survey of rigorous impact evaluations of programs to help small and medium-size firms to formalize indicates that the programs do not seem to work for most informal firms. One of the few exceptions finds large effects of a tax simplification program in Brazil called SIMPLES on firms' formalization rates and performance indicators. Using the same data set but a different identification strategy, another study concludes that the program had limited effect on formalization rates. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it revisits the two studies to reconcile their conflicting conclusions. Second, it investigates the validity of the identification strategy of both studies. The findings suggest that the conflicting results between the two studies are caused by the dates each used to identify when the program was put into effect. A robustness check indicates that data heaping and seasonality around November cast doubts on the identification strategy used in both studies to estimate the effect of this particular program.
Business Environment. --- Business Taxation. --- E-Business. --- Education. --- Finance and Financial Sector Development. --- Private Sector Development. --- Regression Discontinuity Design. --- Science and Technology Development. --- Science Education. --- Scientific Research and Science Parks. --- Simples Program. --- Small Scale Enterprise. --- Sme Development.
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This study examines the effects of the extension of compulsory schooling from 5 to 8 years in Turkey in 1997-which involved substantial investment in school infrastructure-on schooling outcomes and, in particular, on the equality of these outcomes between men and women, and urban and rural residents using the Turkish Demographic and Health Surveys. This policy is peculiar because it also changes the sheepskin effects (signaling effects) of schooling, through its redefinition of the schooling tiers. The policy is also interesting due to its large spillover effects on post-compulsory schooling as well as its remarkable overall effect; for instance, we find that the completed years of schooling by age 17 increases by 1.5 years for rural women. The policy equalizes the educational attainment of urban and rural children substantially. The urban-rural gap in the completed years of schooling at age 17 falls by 0.5 years for men and by 0.7 to 0.8 years for women. However, there is no evidence of a narrowing gender gap with the policy. On the contrary, the gender gap in urban areas in post-compulsory schooling widens.
Compulsory schooling --- Education --- Education for all --- Equality in education --- Gender --- Health, nutrition and population --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Population policies --- Primary education --- Regression discontinuity design --- Rural and urban --- Secondary education
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Energy is one of the most important factors of production. Its efficient use is crucial for ensuring production and environmental quality. Unlike normal goods with supply management, energy is demand managed. Efficient energy use—or energy efficiency—aims to reduce the amount of energy required to provide products and services. Energy use efficiency can be achieved in situations such as housing, offices, industrial production, transport and agriculture as well as in public lighting and services. The use of energy can be reduced by using technology that is energy saving. This Special Issue is a collection of research on energy use efficiency.
History of engineering & technology --- energy efficiency --- direct energy rebound effect --- spatial spillover effect --- price decomposition --- fuel consumption --- trade-off --- technological progress --- passenger vehicle --- power factor --- regression discontinuity design --- data envelopment analysis --- super-SBM --- grey model --- energy consumption --- vehicle --- productive process --- material consumption --- manufacturing --- labor productivity --- energy --- Ethiopia --- energy access --- energy use --- fuzzy logic --- energy intensity --- stochastic frontier --- persistent efficiency --- transient efficiency --- US manufacturing --- energy paradox --- integrated assessment model --- subsidy policy --- air quality improvement --- zero-emission vehicles --- fine particulate matter --- Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards --- Global Change Assessment Model --- energy monitoring --- electricity smart meters --- smart metering information platforms --- knowledge --- longitudinal study --- consumers --- energy use efficiency --- energy efficiency management --- design science research --- pilot implementation --- dynamics --- heat transfer in buildings --- heat losses --- buildings --- thermal power --- heating --- dynamic DEA --- efficiency measurement --- electricity power generation --- weak disposability --- undesirable outputs
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