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Preferential trade agreements are growing in number and deepening in content by incorporating disciplines that go beyond market access. They increasingly encompass non-trade-related disciplines as diverse as intellectual property rights, environment laws, or labor market regulations. Moreover, because investment is complementary to trade, preferential trade agreements provide relevant institutional frameworks to partner countries that wish to regulate their foreign investments. This paper studies the impact of deep trade agreements on foreign direct investment and examines three sub-questions. First, is the impact of trade agreements on foreign direct investment heterogeneous across types of business activity Second, is this impact heterogeneous across disciplines covered in the agreements Third, does the level of development of home and host countries matter for this impact The analysis exploits the World Bank's data set on the content of preferential trade agreement and data on announcements of bilateral greenfield investment at the activity level. The findings show that deep trade agreements matter for investment: every additional discipline in a preferential trade agreement increases foreign direct investment by 1.4 percent, on average. Deep agreements do not impact foreign direct investment in natural resources and extractive activities and have heterogeneous effects across manufacturing- and services-related activities. The results also reveal that disciplines that go beyond the mandate the World Trade Organization matter more for foreign direct investment. Disciplines related to investment liberalization and protection, intellectual property rights, or migration increase foreign direct investment, whereas disciplines on labor market regulations reduce investment. The results are mostly driven by investment between developed and developing countries.

Deep Integration --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Globalization and Financial Integration --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Preferential Trade Agreements --- Regional Trade Agreement --- Regional Trade Integration --- Regionalism --- Trade Agreements --- Trade and Regional Integration --- Trade Finance and Investment

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This paper examines systematically the growth effects of trade integration in Sub-Saharan Africa. It complements and improves upon the empirical literature in two aspects: first, it jointly estimates the impact of different dimensions of trade integration, namely, trade volumes, export/trade patterns by product (primary and manufacturing goods), and by destination (inter- and intra-regional). Second, it estimates the impact of trade integration on economic growth and its sources, that is, capital accumulation and total factor productivity growth. The analysis finds causal evidence that trade integration fosters growth. Additionally, manufacturing trade boosts growth and trade in primary goods hampers growth. Doubling the manufacturing trade share in Sub-Saharan Africa's gross domestic product would increase growth by 1.9 percentage points per year, while increases in primary trade reduce growth by 1 percentage point. This impact is mainly transmitted through lower capital accumulation. Finally, inter- and intra-regional trade have a positive impact on growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Doubling inter-regional trade will increase growth by 1.9 percentage points, and the same increase for intra-regional trade enhances growth by 0.6 percentage points. The effects of inter-regional trade are transmitted primarily through capital accumulation, while those of intra-regional trade are channeled through enhanced total factor productivity growth.

Economic Growth --- Export Competitiveness --- Export Diversification --- Export Patterns --- International Economics and Trade --- Manufacturing Trade --- Regional Trade --- Total Factor Productivity --- Trade and Regional Integration --- Trade Integration --- Trade Policy

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The paper identifies the impact of physical barriers to trade within Central America through the use of an augmented and partially constrained Gravity Model of Trade. Adjusting the Euclidian distance factor for Central America by real average transport times, the model quantifies the impact of poor connectivity and border frictions on the region's internal trade as well as its trade with external partners, such as the United States and Europe. In addition, the authors benchmark Central America's trade coefficients against those of a physically integrated region by running a parallel Gravity Model for the 15 core countries of the European Union. This allows for the estimation of potential intra-regional and external trade levels if Central America were to reduce border frictions and time of travel between countries and thus benefit from both the adjacency of each country's neighbors and the gravitational pull of the region's economies. The analysis is conducted for all of Central America's trade and is also disaggregated for three groups of products-processed fruits and vegetables; steel and steel products; and grains-by both volume and value. This differentiation tests the consistency of the results while providing insight into the differentiation in trading patterns and potential for these containerized, break-bulk, and bulk products. The results of the model include a potential doubling in intraregional exports if Central America could achieve the adjacency and time-distance factors of a truly integrated region. In addition, the region's combined exports to the European Union and the United States are projected to increase by more than a third compared with the current level, assuming European Union-level adjacency performance. Even more external trade benefits would accrue by reducing the economic penalty imposed by overland transport and border crossing inefficiencies.

Economic growth --- Economic performance --- Economic Theory & Research --- Food & Beverage Industry --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- International Trade --- Regional trade --- Regulatory environment --- Trade Policy --- Transport Economics Policy & Planning

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Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC), Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members' trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs, he proposes a variable taking into account the number of years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model. The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the most successful among them, with an estimated positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period.

Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Theory and Research --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Gravity model --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Public Sector Development --- Regional Trade --- Regional Trade Agreements --- Rules of origin --- Trade agreement --- Trade creation --- Trade Effect --- Trade effects --- Trade flows --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy

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Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC), Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members' trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs, he proposes a variable taking into account the number of years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model. The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the most successful among them, with an estimated positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period.

Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Economic Theory and Research --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Free Trade --- Gravity model --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Public Sector Development --- Regional Trade --- Regional Trade Agreements --- Rules of origin --- Trade agreement --- Trade creation --- Trade Effect --- Trade effects --- Trade flows --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy