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This paper estimates the determinants of external debt distress in low-income countries (LICs), disentangling the roles of institutions, shocks, and policies. The most prominent factors in raising the risk of debt distress are the weak protection of private property rights, adverse shocks to real non-oil commodity prices, and a high debt burden. Results also suggest that weak economic institutions tend to raise the probability of debt distress through persistently weak economic policies and high vulnerability to external shocks. The model enables a more granular analysis of debt sustainability in LICs and has a higher predictive power compared to the earlier scant literature.
Exports and Imports --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Debt sustainability --- External debt --- Debt burden --- Debt default --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Debts, External --- United States
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We study how 22 donors allocate their bilateral aid among 147 recipient countries over the 1970- 2004 period to investigate whether changes in the international aid architecture?at the international and country level?have led to changes in behavior. We find that after the fall of the Berlin wall, and especially in the late nineties, bilateral aid responds more to economic need and the quality of a recipient country's policy and institutional environment and less to debt, size, and colonial linkages. Importantly, we find that when a country uses a PRSP and passes the HIPC decision point the perverse effect of large bilateral and multilateral debt shares on aid flows is reduced, suggesting less defensive lending. Overall, it appears international aid architecture changes have led to more selectivity in aid allocations. The specific factors causing these changes remain unclear, however. Furthermore, there remain large differences among donors in selectivity that appear to relate to donors' own institutional environments. Together this suggests that further reforms will have to be multifaceted.
Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Aid --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Finance --- Aid flows --- Foreign aid --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Debt reduction --- Debt relief --- Economic assistance --- International relief --- Debts, External --- United States --- Economic development --- Poverty --- Econometric models.
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This paper provides updated information on the external debt problem of sub-Saharan Africa. Between 1980 and 1990 the region’s external debt more than tripled, to US$171 billion, while debt service payments and rescheduling rose by more than 150 percent to US$20 billion. In addition, the region continues to qualify as severely debt-distressed. During the last few years the region has benefitted from several new debt initiatives, including a substantial increase in debt cancellation by bilateral creditors and the general application of Toronto terms for debt rescheduling. There are also proposals for further debt assistance, including more liberal rescheduling terms, broader debt forgiveness, and consolidating debt relief and aid generation activities.
Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Comparative Studies of Particular Economies --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International economics --- Finance --- Debt service --- External debt --- Debt service payments --- Debt relief --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Asset and liability management --- Debts, External --- United States
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This paper discusses the progress made by Burundi under the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. Burundi has made satisfactory progress in achieving the completion point triggers. It has fully implemented the triggers on preparing and implementing a Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) and maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment. The paper recommends that the Executive Directors of the International Development Association (IDA) and the IMF approve the completion point for Burundi under the enhanced HIPC Initiative.
Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Stocks --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Finance --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Debt relief --- Debt service --- External debt --- Stocks --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Asset and liability management --- Financial institutions --- Debts, External --- Burundi
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This paper discusses Haiti’s progress under the Enhanced Initiative for Heavily Indebted Poor Countries. Substantial advances have been made toward meeting the four triggers not fully implemented, and the authorities are committed to further progress in the near future. These triggers relate to publication of audited government accounts, implementation of a new procurement law, education funding, teacher training and school inspections, and increasing immunization rates. Haiti’s parliament passed a new procurement law in June 2009, which is in line with international best practices.
Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Stocks --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Education: General --- International economics --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Education --- Debt relief --- Debt service --- Stocks --- External debt --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Asset and liability management --- Financial institutions --- Debts, External --- Haiti
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This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix for the Lao People’s Democratic Republic underlies debt sustainability analysis. Sensitivity analysis reveals that if the pace of economic reforms falters, the debt burden—high even in the baseline case—could become unsustainable. The low level of development and the high share of the subsistence agricultural sector limit the revenue collection capacity. Weak technical capacity and highly fragmented revenue administration are the main structural weaknesses affecting revenue performance.
Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Public debt --- Revenue administration --- Debt service --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Expenditure --- External debt --- Debts, Public --- Revenue --- Debts, External --- Expenditures, Public --- Lao People's Democratic Republic
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This report reviews developments in the implementation of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). It also provides updates on debt service and poverty-reducing expenditure by beneficiary countries, as well as on the cost of debt relief, creditor participation rates, and litigation against HIPCs.
Economic policy. --- Fiscal policy. --- Arrears --- Asset and liability management --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Banks and banking --- Banks --- Debt burden --- Debt Management --- Debt relief --- Debt service --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Depository Institutions --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Finance --- Financial Risk Management --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Sovereign Debt --- Somalia
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La dernière revue du programme 2010-2014 au titre de l’instrument de soutien à la politique économique (ISPE) a été achevée en décembre 2014. Les autorités ont sollicité un autre ISPE pour 2015-2017. Les résultats des deux précédents ISPE ont été contrastés. Si la viabilité des finances publiques et de la dette ont été globalement acquis, les résultats sur le plan de la croissance et de la réduction de la pauvreté ont été moins favorables que ce qui avait été initialement programmé en raison des retards dans la mise en œuvre des réformes structurelles.
Budget planning and preparation --- Budget Systems --- Budget --- Budgeting & financial management --- Budgeting --- Debt Management --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Exports and Imports --- External debt --- Finance, Public --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal policy --- International economics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics --- National Budget --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Public debt --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Sovereign Debt --- Senegal
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This 2012 Article IV Consultation focuses on the financial sector and macroeconomic situation in Vietnam. The authorities adopted a stabilization package in February 2011 in response to increasing pressures on prices and the exchange rate in late 2010. Executive Directors commended the tightening of macroeconomic policies in 2011, which contributed to declining inflation, stabilizing the exchange rate, and a rebuilding of international reserves. Directors also recommended that monetary policy give priority to reducing inflation and rebuilding reserves further.
Fiscal policy --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Government policy --- Vietnam --- Economic conditions. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Public Finance --- Macroeconomics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- External debt --- Public debt --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Balance of payments
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This paper on Cameroon’s Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative explains implementation of the poverty reduction strategy and macroeconomic performance. Executive Directors agreed that Cameroon’s external public debt was above the HIPC Initiative sustainability threshold, and the country was eligible for assistance in the amount of US$1.26 billion in 1999. Assuming prudent fiscal policies and robust non-oil real GDP growth, Cameroon’s external public debt is expected to be sustainable over the long term.
Budgeting --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: Stocks --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Finance --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Budgeting & financial management --- Debt relief --- Debt service --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Stocks --- Budget planning and preparation --- Asset and liability management --- External debt --- Financial institutions --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Debts, External --- Budget --- Cameroon
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