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This paper evaluates effectiveness of microfinance using Propensity Score Matching (PSM) method applied to data collected in a recent randomized control trial. This method allows one to answer an additional set of questions not answered by the original study and provide more nuanced evidence by comparing Microfinance Institution (MFI) borrowers to those without any loans and those with prior loans from other sources. It is argued that this unique setting with two comparison groups allows us to shed light on the unobservable entrepreneurial spirit bias and provides upper and lower bounds on the true microfinance impact. The results suggest that microfinance can make a modest difference for some households in several expenditure categories.
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To address the educational gap, many Latin American countries are focusing on extension of the school day and enrichment of the curriculum. In Brazil, a nationwide policy-Mais Educao-was implemented in 2008 with this objective. This paper explores the nationwide rollout of the program across the country and compares the performance of schools before and after implementation of the program. The paper quantifies the impacts of the program on student learning and dropout rates in urban areas, and investigates the heterogeneity of impacts by several characteristics of the program's implementation. Participating schools are compared with nonparticipating schools after controlling for school selection into the program based on observable characteristics using propensity score matching. The analysis finds that participation in Mais Educao has on average no impacts on school dropout rates and average negative impacts on mathematics test scores. The negative impacts on student achievement are stronger in the short term, which suggests that the negative effects may be reduced as the program improves its implementation. In addition, especially for fifth-grade schools, the level of student spending is associated with reduced dropout rates. Interestingly, in schools choosing the fields of Portuguese and/or sports in the added hours, the program is associated with lower test scores in Portuguese and mathematics. Finally, for the sample of fifth-grade schools, heterogeneous impacts are seen in the program according to the GDP per capita of the city where the school is located. The higher the GDP per capita, the greater the positive impact of the program on mathematics test scores and on dropout rates.
Extension of the School Day --- Impact Evaluation --- Propensity Score Matching --- Student Learning
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Sustainable development and environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors are playing an increasingly important role in the investment industry. The potential of private equity funds in this context is very large due to the characteristics of this asset class. However, the question that arises is whether or not the ESG orientation of private equity funds can lead to a better performance. To answer this question, three types of analysis are carried out in order to estimate the average effect of an ESG orientation on private equity fund performance, namely a simple OLS regression analysis, a multiple OLS regression analysis, and propensity score matching (PSM). These analyses are all carried out for two different performance measures, namely for the Total Value to Paid-in Capital (TVPI) multiple and the Net Internal Rate of Return (IRR).
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Technical education and training has been dramatically expanding in Brazil recently. However, there remains no evidence on the cost effectiveness of this alternative track to a more general education. This paper quantifies the wage returns of completing technical and vocational education and training compared with the returns of completing the general education track, for individuals with similar observable characteristics. Exploring data from the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey, the paper profiles the students taking up this track and quantifies the impact of different types of technical and vocational education and training courses on individuals' hourly wages. After controlling for selection on observables with propensity score matching, the analysis shows positive and statistically significant wage premiums for students completing technical school at the upper secondary level (on average 9.7 percent) and for those completing short-term training courses (2.2 percent on average). The paper also documents significant heterogeneity of impacts depending on the courses and the profile of students. For realistic unitary costs of providing technical and vocational education and training, the evidence suggests technical education is a cost-effective modality. The courses offered by the publically financed and privately managed "Sistema S," together with courses in the manufacturing area have the highest positive impacts.
Access & Equity in Basic Education --- Education --- Education for All --- Effective Schools & Teachers --- Gender & Education --- Labor Market --- Primary Education --- Propensity Score Matching --- Technical Education --- Wage Premium
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This paper proposes monetary poverty and inequality estimates for Kinshasa using a new Kinshasa household survey implemented in 2018. Given the obsolescence of the sampling frame, the survey was sampled using satellite imagery. However, the collection of data in the field was affected by sampling errors that are likely to compromise the representativeness of the sample. After addressing these sampling issues and dealing with some comparability issues with the 2012 survey, the paper shows that poverty and inequality increased significantly during 2012-18 in Kinshasa. Poverty has increased in the city by 12 percentage points, from 53 to 65 percent, partly due to the loss of purchasing power following the sharp depreciation in 2017. Other explanatory factors include demographic factors, human capital, and spatial factors. The deterioration in well-being also appears to have been exacerbated by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic through decline in labor and nonlabor income and disruptions in goods and services markets and public services.
Comparability Issues --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Inequality --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty Map --- Poverty Measurement --- Poverty Reduction --- Propensity Score --- Robustness Analysis --- Sampling Errors --- Urban Poverty
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The focus of trade policy has shifted in recent years from economy-wide reductions in tariffs and trade restrictions toward targeted interventions to facilitate trade and promote exports. Most of these latter interventions are based on the new mantra of "aid-for-trade" rather than on hard evidence on what works and what does not. On the one hand, rigorous impact-evaluation is needed to justify these interventions and to improve their design. On the other hand, rigorous evaluation is feasible because unlike traditional trade policy, these interventions tend to be targeted and so it is possible to construct treatment and control groups. When interventions are not targeted, such as in the case of customs reforms, some techniques, such as randomized control trials, may not be feasible but meaningful evaluation may still be possible. Theis paper discusses examples of impact evaluations using a range of methods (experimental and non-experimental), highlighting the particular issues and caveats arising in a trade context, and the valuable lessons that are already being learned. The authors argue that systematically building impact evaluation into trade projects could lead to better policy design and a more credible case for "aid-for-trade.
Aid for trade --- Economic Theory & Research --- Export promotion --- Free Trade --- Impact evaluation --- International Economics & Trade --- Poverty Monitoring & Analysis --- Propensity-score matching --- Randomized control trials --- Trade competitiveness --- Trade facilitation --- Trade Policy --- Transport Economics Policy & Planning
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This paper estimates the causal effects of civil war on years of education in the context of a school-going age cohort that is exposed to armed conflict in Cote d'Ivoire. Using year and department of birth to identify an individual's exposure to war, the difference-in-difference outcomes indicate that the average years of education for a school-going age cohort is .94 years fewer compared with an older cohort in war-affected regions. To minimize the potential bias in the estimated outcome, the authors use a set of victimization indicators to identify the true effect of war. The propensity score matching estimates do not alter the main findings. In addition, the outcomes of double-robust models minimize the specification errors in the model. Moreover, the paper finds the outcomes are robust across alternative matching methods, estimation by using subsamples, and other education outcome variables. Overall, the findings across different models suggest a drop in average years of education by a range of .2 to .9 fewer years.
Access & Equity in Basic Education --- Education --- Education for All --- Evaluation --- Human capital --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Population Policies --- Post Conflict Reconstruction --- Poverty Reduction --- Primary Education --- Propensity score matching --- War --- Africa
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This paper evaluates the effects of the FAMEX export promotion program in Tunisia on the performance of beneficiary firms. While much of the literature assesses only the short-term impact of such programs, the paper considers also the longer-term impact. Propensity-score matching, difference-in-difference, and weighted least squares estimates suggest that beneficiaries initially see faster export growth and greater diversification across destination markets and products. However, three years after the intervention, the growth rates and the export levels of beneficiaries are not significantly different from those of non-beneficiary firms. Exports of beneficiaries do remain more diversified, but the diversification does not translate into lower volatility of exports. The authors also did not find evidence that the program produced spillover benefits for non-beneficiary firms. However, the results on the longer-term impact of export promotion must be interpreted cautiously because the later years of the sample period saw a collapse in world trade, which may not have affected all firms equally.
E-Business --- Economic Theory & Research --- Export margins --- Export promotion --- Firms --- Impact evaluation --- International Economics & Trade --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Matching grant --- Microfinance --- Propensity-score matching --- Small Scale Enterprise --- Tunisia
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This article evaluates the effect of the overdraft facility (or line of credit) policy by comparing a large sample of overdraft facilitated firms and matched non-overdraft facilitated firms from Eastern Europe at the sector level. The sample firms are compared with respect to rates of different performance indicators including: technical efficiency (a Data Envelopment Analysis approach is applied to estimate the technical efficiency level for individual sectors), production workers trained, expenditures on research and development, and export activity. In order to avoid the selectivity problem, propensity score matching methodologies are adopted. The results suggest that a certain level of overdraft facility provided to firms would be needed to stimulate investment in research and development, which will eventually result in increased growth in productivity.
Access to Finance --- Bootstrapping --- Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) --- Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Labor Policies --- Overdraft Facility Policy --- Private Sector Development --- Propensity Score Matching --- Technical Efficiency
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This paper investigates a women's self-help group program with more than 1.5 million participants in one of the poorest rural areas of Northern India. The program has four streams of activity in micro-savings, agricultural enterprise training, health and nutrition education, and political participation. The paper considers whether there is any evidence that program membership is associated with quality of life improvement. Using new data on a variety of self-reported capability indicators from members and non-members, the paper estimates propensity score matching models and reports evidence of differences in some dimensions as well as significant benefits to those from the most disadvantaged groups'scheduled castes and tribes. The paper considers robustness and concludes that for some dimensions, there is evidence that the program has contributed to sustainable development through improvements in the quality of life.
Capabilities --- Community Development and Empowerment --- Development Patterns and Poverty --- Gender --- Gender and Poverty --- Inequality --- Participations and Civic Engagement --- Poverty Reduction --- Propensity Score Matching --- Self-Help Groups --- Social Development --- Sustainable Development
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