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Capacity development is one of the IMF’s core activities. Its impact is monitored through a Results-Based Management framework. Using for the first time the resulting dataset, the paper investigates how the likelihood of achieving targeted outcomes correlates with macroeconomic conditions and project-specific characteristics. Results indicate a positive correlation with per capita GDP growth and the involvement of resident advisors and regional centers. Results also confirm lower chances of achieving targeted outcomes for fragile, conflict-affected, and small states as well as in complex projects. These findings inform Fund CD strategy, prioritization and delivery to help member countries achieve better outcomes.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Econometrics --- Banks and Banking --- Taxation --- Public Finance --- Economic Development: General --- Project Analysis --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Probit models --- Econometric analysis --- Central bank operations --- Central banks --- Tax administration core functions --- Revenue administration --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Econometric models --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue

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The voluminous literature comparing public-private partnerships (P3s) and own-investment (OI) by the public sector is dominated by contributions from microeconomic theory. This paper gives macroeconomics a voice in the debate by investigating the repercussions of P3 vs. OI in a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring private capital accumulation and involuntary unemployment with efficiency wages. Typically P3s cost more but produce higher-quality infrastructure and boast a better on-time completion record than OI; consequently, they are comparatively more effective in reducing underinvestment in private capital, underinvestment in infrastructure, unemployment and poverty. The asymmetric impact on macro externalities raises the social return in the P3 2 - 9 percentage points relative to the social return to OI, depending on whether the externalities operate singly or in combination and on whether P3 enjoys an advantage in speed of construction.

Saving and investment --- Infrastructure (Economics) --- Capital, Social (Economics) --- Economic infrastructure --- Social capital (Economics) --- Social infrastructure --- Social overhead capital --- Economic development --- Human settlements --- Public goods --- Public works --- Capital --- Accumulation, Capital --- Capital accumulation --- Capital formation --- Investment and saving --- Saving and thrift --- Supply-side economics --- Wealth --- Investments --- Econometric models. --- Infrastructure --- Labor --- Allocative Efficiency --- Cost-Benefit Analysis --- Investment --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Publicly Provided Goods: General --- Project Evaluation --- Social Discount Rate --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Project Analysis --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Macroeconomics --- Unemployment rate --- National accounts --- Real wages --- Economic theory --- South Africa