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Book
A Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth for Low Income Countries
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Monthly economic indicators support policy analysis of current economic developments and forecasting. This paper presents an overview of the data and statistical requirements to develop those indicators taking into account resource constraints that LIC typically face. We review statistical procedures for developing these indicators under the System of National Accounts and propose a general procedure to derive a monthly composite indicator of economic growth in low income economies.


Book
Short-Term Forecasting : Projecting Italian GDPone Quarter to Two Years Ahead
Author:
ISBN: 146239230X 1452763356 1282107070 1451898797 9786613800428 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries.


Book
Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators : An Application to Jordan.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462381146 1452787522 1282106465 9786613799814 1451903693 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in part the lack of sufficient historical data to determine the reliability of these indicators. This paper presents an econometric approach to deriving composite indexes of coincident and leading indicators for a small open economy, Jordan. The results show that, even with limited monthly observations, it is possible to establish meaningful economic and statistically significant relations between indicators from different sectors of the economy and the present and future direction of economic activity.

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