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Monthly economic indicators support policy analysis of current economic developments and forecasting. This paper presents an overview of the data and statistical requirements to develop those indicators taking into account resource constraints that LIC typically face. We review statistical procedures for developing these indicators under the System of National Accounts and propose a general procedure to derive a monthly composite indicator of economic growth in low income economies.
Macroeconomics --- Statistics --- Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth --- Environmental Accounts --- Macroeconomics: Production --- General Aggregative Models: General --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Economic growth --- National accounts --- Economic and financial statistics --- Production index --- Business cycles --- Production --- National income --- Economic statistics --- Economic theory --- Guatemala
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This paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries.
Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Economic growth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Economic Forecasting --- Cyclical indicators --- Industrial production --- Vector autoregression --- GDP forecasting --- Production index --- Production --- Econometric analysis --- National accounts --- Business cycles --- Industries --- National income --- Economic theory --- United States
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The analysis of coincident and leading indicators can help policymakers gauge the short-term direction of economic activity. While such analysis is well established in advanced economies, it has received relatively little attention in many emerging market and developing economies, reflecting in part the lack of sufficient historical data to determine the reliability of these indicators. This paper presents an econometric approach to deriving composite indexes of coincident and leading indicators for a small open economy, Jordan. The results show that, even with limited monthly observations, it is possible to establish meaningful economic and statistically significant relations between indicators from different sectors of the economy and the present and future direction of economic activity.
Economic indicators --- Economic forecasting --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Business indicators --- Indicators, Business --- Indicators, Economic --- Leading indicators --- Economic history --- Quality of life --- Index numbers (Economics) --- Social indicators --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Production --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic growth --- Finance --- Cyclical indicators --- Business cycles --- Industrial production --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Production index --- Production --- Financial markets --- Industries --- Financial services industry --- Economic theory --- Jordan
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