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This paper takes the Asian crisis as an example to show that the Autoregressive Conditional Hazard (ACH) model is a powerful tool for studying the time series features of speculative attacks. The ACH model proposes a duration variable to capture the changes in the frequency of attacks, which might be an important factor influencing investors' expectations. The empirical results show that the ACH model explains the crisis far better than the Probit model. The duration variable is highly significant while most fundamentals are not. The contagion effect is tested and accepted under the ACH specification.

Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Probit models --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Currencies --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Econometric analysis --- Money --- Econometric models --- Thailand

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Recent work on the political economy of fiscal policy has asked how budgetary institutions affect fiscal outcomes. But what determines the budgetary institutions? In this paper I consider one such institution: the executive veto. A simple theoretical framework predicts that jurisdictions with more political actors spending from a common pool of tax resources will choose to empower their executives. Using an econometric framework to identify the exogenous variation in the number of districts, I present evidence from a cross-section of local governments in the United States that jurisdictions with more electoral districts are likely to have executives with veto powers.

Budgeting --- Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Demography --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Demographic Economics: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- Public finance & taxation --- Population & demography --- Budgeting & financial management --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Expenditure --- Population and demographics --- Personal income --- Budget planning and preparation --- Probit models --- National accounts --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Econometric analysis --- Expenditures, Public --- Population --- Income --- Budget --- Econometric models --- United States

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We analyze the effect of IMF programs on economic agents' expectations about the economy in transitional countries using survey data from the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer poll, an annual general public survey monitoring the evolution of public opinion from 1990 to 1997. Previous studies, in contrast, have looked at indirect measures, such as capital flows or yield spreads, to assess the impact of IMF programs on economic expectations. Using a multinomial probit model, we find that IMF loans appear to have a strong effect on agent expectations in the early years, through the inflow of real money, and through the signaling effect. IMF programs during periods of collapsing growth appear to reinforce underlying expectations for the future; they are associated with positive expectations for those with an optimistic outlook and negative expectations for those with a negative outlook. Once recovery is underway, and economic uncertainty diminishes, it appears that IMF programs cease to have a statistically significant effect on the expectations of economic agents. This suggests that IMF programs have the biggest impact on expectations during periods of great uncertainty and less of an impact when countries are subject to minor shocks.

Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Demography --- Education: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Education --- Macroeconomics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Population & demography --- International economics --- Probit models --- Aging --- Capital flows --- Prices --- Econometric models --- Population aging --- Capital movements --- Czech Republic --- Rational expectations (Economic theory) --- Economic assistance --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) --- Econometric models. --- International Monetary Fund.

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Capacity development is one of the IMF’s core activities. Its impact is monitored through a Results-Based Management framework. Using for the first time the resulting dataset, the paper investigates how the likelihood of achieving targeted outcomes correlates with macroeconomic conditions and project-specific characteristics. Results indicate a positive correlation with per capita GDP growth and the involvement of resident advisors and regional centers. Results also confirm lower chances of achieving targeted outcomes for fragile, conflict-affected, and small states as well as in complex projects. These findings inform Fund CD strategy, prioritization and delivery to help member countries achieve better outcomes.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Econometrics --- Banks and Banking --- Taxation --- Public Finance --- Economic Development: General --- Project Analysis --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Probit models --- Econometric analysis --- Central bank operations --- Central banks --- Tax administration core functions --- Revenue administration --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Econometric models --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue

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This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.

Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- Foreign Exchange --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Arrears --- Early warning systems --- Probit models --- External debt --- Currency crises --- Financial crises --- Econometric analysis --- Debt service --- Debts, External --- Crisis management --- Econometric models --- Zimbabwe