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Book
A Cross-Country Database of Fiscal Space
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper presents a comprehensive cross-country database of fiscal space, broadly defined as the availability of budgetary resources for a government to service its financial obligations. The database covers up to 200 countries over the period 1990-2016, and includes 28 indicators of fiscal space grouped into four categories: debt sustainability, balance sheet vulnerability, external and private sector debt related risks as potential causes of contingent liabilities, and market access. The authors illustrate potential applications of the database by analyzing developments in fiscal space across three time frames: over the past quarter century; during financial crises; and during oil price plunges. The main results are as follows. First, fiscal space had improved in many countries before the global financial crisis. In advanced economies, following severe deteriorations during the crisis, many indicators of fiscal space have virtually returned to levels in the mid-2000s. In contrast, fiscal space has shrunk in many emerging market and developing economies since the crisis. Second, financial crises tend to coincide with deterioration in multiple indicators of fiscal space, but they are often followed by reduced reliance on short-term borrowing. Finally, fiscal space narrows in energy-exporting emerging market and developing economies during oil price plunges but later expands, often because of procyclical fiscal tightening and, in some episodes, a recovery in oil prices.


Dissertation
Implementation of a valuation system for the illiquid assets held within an alternative investment fund.
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Liège Université de Liège (ULiège)

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Although considered as opaque and mysterious, nowadays the illiquid assets represent an investment opportunity increasingly talked about by the various different institutional investors. Indeed, it turns out that all of the assets, either financial or real, are somewhat illiquid, but what varies is their degree of illiquidity, portrayed as their liquid event occurrences. This degree of illiquidity results in a premium for the investors, making up for the higher risks taken while investing in such particular assets. Besides this concept of illiquidity and the appealing related premium, these assets are also extremely attractive because they provide, among other, higher risk-adjusted returns than the traditional assets, a reduction of the systematic-risk of a portfolio through diversification and a key noncyclical characteristic.&#13;Naturally, investing in these assets represents a massive risk and a challenge considering the fact that there is massive lack of information and the market is decentralized, without any public quotations. Therefore, the investors, mostly institutional, are active and constantly developing their knowledge of the field to take advantage of the few available information.&#13;In this context, Pure Capital S.A., an independent asset manager established in Luxembourg, desires to develop its activities and to take advantage of the illiquid assets through the development of its Management Company service. &#13;Therefore, through this project, Pure Capital S.A. will be provided with a genuine toolbox. The latter is composed of a literature and theoretical background concerning the illiquid assets, making up for the frame of the actual tools. These are, more particularly, on one hand, the Decision Tree, derived into identity sheets for each of the studied illiquid assets, gathering the major useful features for the determination of the specific illiquid asset sub-category. On the other hand, the Valuation Matrix gives, within seconds, the corresponding and recommended valuation approaches to conduct, for each of the illiquid asset sub-categories which are at stake for Pure Capital S.A. in this project. &#13;The different implemented valuation methodologies are aimed to be generical and user-friendly, to encompass as many cases as possible and enabling Pure Capital S.A. to perform effortless counter valuations. They are developed qualitatively and some, quantitatively.


Book
What has been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? : Turning a Wave into a Tsunami
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on debt, puts recent debt developments and prospects in historical context, and analyzes new policy challenges associated with debt resolution. The paper reports three main results. First, even before the pandemic, a rapid buildup of debt in emerging market and developing economies-dubbed the "fourth wave" of debt-had been underway. Because of the sharp increase in debt during the pandemic-induced global recession of 2020, the fourth wave of debt has turned into a tsunami and become even more dangerous. Second, five years after past global recessions, global government debt continued to increase. In light of this historical record, and given large financing gaps and significant investment needs in many countries, debt levels will likely continue to rise in the near future. Third, debt resolution has become more complicated because of a highly fragmented creditor base, a lack of transparency in debt reporting, and a legacy stock of government debt without collective action clauses. National policy makers and the global community need to act rapidly and forcefully ensure that the fourth wave does not end with a string of debt crises in emerging market and developing economies as earlier debt waves did.


Book
Debt and Financial Crises
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged approach: an event study of debt accumulation episodes in 100 emerging market and developing economies since 1970; a series of econometric models examining the linkages between debt and the probability of financial crises; and a set of case studies of rapid debt buildup that ended in crises. The paper reports four main results. First, episodes of debt accumulation are common, with more than 500 episodes occurring since 1970. Second, around half of these episodes were associated with financial crises which typically had worse economic outcomes than those without crises - after 8 years output per capita was typically 6-10 percent lower and investment 15-22 percent weaker in crisis episodes. Third, a rapid buildup of debt, whether public or private, increased the likelihood of a financial crisis, as did a larger share of short-term external debt, higher debt service cover, and lower reserves cover. Fourth, countries that experienced financial crises frequently employed combinations of unsustainable fiscal, monetary and financial sector policies, and often suffered from structural and institutional weaknesses.


Book
Benefits and Costs of Debt : The Dose Makes the Poison
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Government debt has risen substantially in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) since the global financial crisis. The current environment of low global interest rates and weak growth may appear to mitigate concerns about elevated debt levels. Considering currently subdued investment, additional government borrowing might also appear to be an attractive option for financing growth-enhancing initiatives such as investment in human and physical capital. However, history suggests caution. Despite low interest rates, debt was on a rising trajectory in half of EMDEs in 2018. In addition, the cost of rolling over debt can increase sharply during periods of financial stress and result in financial crises; elevated debt levels can limit the ability of governments to provide fiscal stimulus during downturns; and high debt can weigh on investment and long-term growth. Hence, EMDEs need to strike a careful balance between taking advantage of low interest rates and avoiding the potentially adverse consequences of excessive debt accumulation.


Book
Can This Time Be Different? : Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Episodes of debt accumulation have been a recurrent feature of the global economy over the past fifty years. Since 2010, emerging and developing economies have experienced another wave of historically large and rapid debt accumulation. Similar past debt buildups have often ended in widespread financial crises in these economies. This paper examines the factors that are likely to determine the outcome of the most recent debt wave, and considers policy options to help reduce the likelihood that it ends again in widespread crises. It reports two main results. First, the rapid increase in debt has made emerging and developing economies more vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment, notwithstanding historically low global interest rates. Second, policy options are available to lower the likelihood of financial crises, and to help manage the adverse impacts of crises when they do occur. These include sound debt management, strong monetary and fiscal frameworks, and robust bank supervision and regulation. The post-crisis debt buildup has coincided with a period of subdued growth as well as the emergence of non-traditional creditors. As a result, policy priorities also need to ensure that debt is spent on productive purposes to improve growth prospects and that all debt-related transactions are transparently reported.


Book
A Mountain of Debt : Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a massive increase in global debt levels and exacerbated the trade-offs between the benefits and costs of accumulating government debt. This paper examines these trade-offs by putting the recent debt boom into a historical context. It reports three major findings. First, during the 2020 global recession, both global government and private debt levels rose to record highs, and at their fastest single-year pace, in five decades. Second, the debt-financed, massive fiscal support programs implemented during the pandemic supported activity and illustrated the benefits of accumulating debt. However, as the recovery gains traction, the balance of benefits and costs of debt accumulation could increasingly tilt toward costs. Third, more than two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies are currently in government debt booms. On average, the current booms have already lasted three years longer, and are accompanied by a considerably larger fiscal deterioration, than earlier booms. About half of the earlier debt booms were associated with financial crises in emerging market and developing economies.


Book
A Noteon Burden Sharing Among Creditors
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462378331 1455259543 Year: 1992 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents a framework for evaluating the relative contributions of different creditors in cases where only partial payments can be made by the debtor country. A methodology is developed to calculate partial payments—or alternatively put—determine residual financing. By focusing on the relative seniority of creditors and expectations of the debtor’s ability to repay, alternative sharing rules are quantified. The measure is based on the expected present value of payments. Creditors earning a below-market rate of return suffer a burden; creditors earning the same rate of return are said to share the burden equally.


Book
Sustainable Plans and Mutual Default
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462321828 1455214132 Year: 1990 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents a model of optimal taxation in which both private agents and the government can default on their debt. We first consider Ramsey equilibria in which the government can precommit to its policies but in which private agents can default. We then consider sustainable equilibria in which both government and private agent decision rules are required to be sequentially rational. We show that when there is sufficiently little discounting and government consumption fluctuates enough, the Ramsey allocations and policies (in which the government never defaults) can be supported by a sustainable equilibrium.


Book
Managerial Entrenchment and the Choice of Debt Financing
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ISBN: 146237316X 1452750246 1281600695 1451897561 9786613781383 Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper analyzes the choice between public and private debt by an entrenched manager. The model shows that when the firm’s credit risk is low, management issues public bonds because of the value gains from increased flexibility rather than reduced restrictions and monitoring. In fact, management’s expected private gains decrease as initial private debt restrictions are selectively relaxed. In contrast, when credit risk is high, management issues private debt because of the value gains and private benefits from renegotiating more stringent restrictions. When the maturity of private debt is shortened, however, privately and publicly placed bonds can be preferred to bank debt.

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