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Sovereign Credit Ratings, Relative Risk Ratings, and Private Capital Flows
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper examines the influence of sovereign credit ratings and relative risk ratings on private capital flows to 26 emerging and frontier market economies, using quarterly data for 1998-2017. A dynamic panel regression model is used to estimate the relationship between ratings and capital flows after controlling for other factors that can influence capital flows, such as growth and interest rate differentials and global risk conditions. The analysis finds that while absolute ratings were an important determinant of net capital inflows prior to the global financial crisis in 2008, the influence of relative risk ratings increased in the post-crisis period, which was characterized by easy monetary policies and global liquidity, on the one hand, and greater caution and discretion on the part of investors on the other. The post-crisis effect of relative ratings appears to be driven mostly by portfolio flows. These findings imply that emerging and frontier markets need to pay greater attention to their relative economic performance and not just their sovereign ratings. Tracking changes in relative ratings could help predict macroeconomic disturbances resulting from volatile portfolio capital movements.


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The specter of global China : politics, labor, and foreign investment in Africa
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ISBN: 022634097X Year: 2017 Publisher: Chicago, [Illinois] ; London, [England] : The University of Chicago Press,

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China has recently emerged as one of Africa’s top business partners, aggressively pursuing its raw materials and establishing a mighty presence in the continent’s booming construction market. Among major foreign investors in Africa, China has stirred the most fear, hope, and controversy. For many, the specter of a Chinese neocolonial scramble is looming, while for others China is Africa’s best chance at economic renewal. Yet, global debates about China in Africa have been based more on rhetoric than on empirical evidence. Ching Kwan Lee’s The Specter of Global China is the first comparative ethnographic study that addresses the critical question: Is Chinese capital a different kind of capital? Offering the clearest look yet at China’s state-driven investment in Africa, this book is rooted in six years of extensive fieldwork in copper mines and construction sites in Zambia, Africa’s copper giant. Lee shadowed Chinese, Indian, and South African managers in underground mines, interviewed Zambian miners and construction workers, and worked with Zambian officials. Distinguishing carefully between Chinese state capital and global private capital in terms of their business objectives, labor practices, managerial ethos, and political engagement with the Zambian state and society, she concludes that Chinese state investment presents unique potential and perils for African development. The Specter of Global China will be a must-read for anyone interested in the future of China, Africa, and capitalism worldwide.


Book
Capital Flows to Brazil : The Endogeneity of Capital Controls
Authors: ---
ISBN: 146231662X 1452702810 1283556030 1451899238 9786613868480 Year: 1997 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper creates an index of capital controls to analyze the determinants of capital flows to Brazil, accounting for the endogeneity of capital controls by considering a government that sets controls in response to capital flows. It finds that the government reacts strongly to capital flows by increasing controls on inflows during booms and relaxing them in moments of distress. The paper estimates a vector autoregression with capital flows, controls, and interest differentials. It shows that controls have been temporarily effective in altering levels and composition of capital flows but have had no sustained effects in the long run.


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"Crowding in" and the Returns to Government Investment in Low-Income Countries
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Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper estimates the effect of government investment on private investment in a sample of 39 low-income countries. Fluctuations in a predetermined component of disbursements on loans from official creditors to developing country governments are used as an instrument for fluctuations in public investment. The analysis finds evidence of "crowding in": an extra dollar of government investment raises private investment by roughly two dollars, and output by 1.5 dollars. To understand the implications for the return to public investment, a CES production function with public and private capital as inputs is calibrated. For most countries in the sample, the returns to government investment exceed the world interest rate. However, for some countries that already have high government investment rates, the return to further investment is below the world interest rate.


Book
A Survey of Academic Literatureon Controls Over International Capital Transactions
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ISBN: 1462308538 145524841X 1451935889 1455261645 Year: 1995 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.


Book
Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970's and 1990's : Is there Evidence of Contagion?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462351018 1452734127 1281602833 1451895186 9786613783523 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper studies the determinants of private capital flows to developing countries during the last two episodes of large inflows, the late 1970s-early 1980s and the 1990s. The paper also tests for contagion effects in capital flows among recipient countries, and tries to identify specific channels through which such effects can occur. It tests for neighborhood effects, trade-related effects, and for contagion based on the countries having similar macroeconomic indicators. The results show strong evidence for the first two effects during the 1990s, and indicate that the third effect varies depending on the type of capital flow.


Book
Capital Account Liberalization in Finland : Analysis of Structural Changes
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ISBN: 1462305504 1455296953 Year: 1995 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.


Book
Large Capital Flows : A Survey of the Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses
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ISBN: 1462306705 1452778558 1281604410 9786613785107 1451891393 Year: 1999 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper reviews the causes, consequences, and policy responses to large capital flows in several emerging markets. It opens by studying recent patterns of capital flows, and then discusses the causes of capital flows. Emphasis is given to the reasons behind the capital inflow episode in the 1990s, the major reversals, and the volatility observed in these flows. The paper goes on to examine the consequences of capital inflows and the pros and cons of alternative policy responses. It concludes with policy lessons derived from country experiences.


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Growth from International Capital Flows : The Role of Volatility Regimes
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1455284548 1455299677 1283551608 9786613864055 1455252271 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Recent commentary has downplayed the growth dividend from international financial integration, highlighting the possibly negative correlation between capital inflows and long-run growth. This paper presents new evidence consistent with standard economic theory and a more benign interpretation of cross-border private capital flows. The key observation is that a country’s growth volatility changes over time. With volatility below a threshold, an inflow of foreign capital has promoted growth. However, during periods of volatile growth, more flows have been associated with slower growth. Volatility levels and changes reflect an interaction of domestic production and institutional structures with global factors.


Book
Le rôle du FMI : Le financement et ses interactions avec l’ajustement et la surveillance
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ISBN: 145523575X 1455263923 Year: 1996 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Dans un contexte marqué par des mutations de l'environnement économique international, cet ouvrage traite des raisons d'être des financements du FMI et des relations existantes entre ces concours et la fonction de surveillance qu'exerce l'institution lorsqu'elle s'applique à éviter et corriger les déséquilibres de balance des paiements des pays membres. Il analyse les circonstances dans lesquelles le financement du FMI continue de jouer un rôle important, présente les enseignements que l'on peut tirer du rôle du FMI dans la crise financière mexicaine, et à aborde la nécessité future des ressources du FMI.

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