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This paper identifies and describes key features of Caribbean business cycles during the period 1963-2003. In particular, the chronologies in the Caribbean classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth) are identified. It is found that Caribbean classical cycles are longer-lived than those of developed countries and non-Caribbean developing countries. While there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in the Caribbean classical cycle, on both measures the Caribbean growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, there is some evidence of synchronization among the classical cycles of Caribbean countries, and stronger evidence of synchronization of Caribbean growth cycles.

Business cycles --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Cariribean Area --- Economic policy. --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic growth --- Output gap --- Production growth --- Production --- Economic theory --- United States

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The paper uses the P-STAR model to analyze Spanish prices from 1970 to 1996, adding the foreign price gap to the standard domestic definition of the P-STAR model (the domestic price gap) to assess the role German price movements played in Spanish inflation. The domestic price gap turns out to be the major explanatory variable for inflation, even after the entrance of Spain in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM). This result suggests that the successful disinflation experienced in Spain in the past few years may be more related to domestic conditions than to foreign ones.

Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Production and Operations Management --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Conventional peg --- Prices --- Production --- Economic theory --- Spain

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Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbors (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. There are important institutional linkages. Across the region there are also large flows of goods and capital, significant financial sector interconnections, as well as sizeable labor movements and associated remittance flows. These interconnections suggest that South Africa’s GDP growth rate should affect positively its neighbors’, a point we illustrate formally with the help of numerical simulations of the IMF’s GIMF model. However, our review and update of the available econometric evidence suggest that there is no strong evidence of real spillovers in the region after 1994, once global shocks are controlled for. More generally, we find no evidence of real spillovers from South Africa to the rest of the continent post-1994. We investigate the possible reasons for this lack of spillovers. Most importantly, the economies of South Africa and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa might have de-coupled in the mid-1990s. That is when international sanctions on South Africa ended and the country re-integrated with the global economy, while growth in the rest of the continent accelerated due to a combination of domestic and external factors.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Externalities --- Trade: General --- Education: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Education --- Economic growth --- Spillovers --- Exports --- Imports --- Business cycles --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- International trade --- International finance --- South Africa

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Les Perspectives de l'économie mondiale (PEM), publiées deux fois l'an en anglais, français, espagnol et arabe, présentent des analyses de l'évolution économique mondiale à court et moyen termes, préparées par les principaux économistes du FMI. Les divers chapitres donnent un tour d'horizon de l'économie mondiale, évoquent des questions qui touchent les pays industrialisés, les pays en développement, et ceux en transition vers une économie de marché, et abordent des thèmes d'actualité. Des annexes, des encadrés, des graphiques et un appendice statistique détaillé complètent le texte.

Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Inflation --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- International economics --- Economic growth --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Investment & securities --- Business cycles --- Oil prices --- Current account balance --- Exports --- Consumption --- Economics --- Balance of payments --- United States

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For a sample of US industries, nominal wage and price inflation follow aggregate price inflation closely during economic expansions. Hence, fluctuations in profit markup and real output are moderate in the face of expansionary demand shocks. During recessions, however, industrial nominal wage deflation exceeds that of the aggregate price level. This is in contras to producers’ attempt to maintain, or even increase, industrial real price inflation during recessions. Consistently, the increase in the profit markup is correlated with an increase in output contraction and a reduction in workers’ real standard of living during recessions.

Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: Public Policy --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Wages --- Real wages --- Business cycles --- Wage indexation --- Prices --- Cost of living --- Cost and standard of living --- United States