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It has been argued that higher levels of inflation lead to greater uncertainty about future inflation and to greater dispersion of relative prices. In either case, inflation could reduce the efficiency of market prices in coordinating economic activities. This paper shows that the rise of inflation in Colombia, from low levels in the 1950s to average rates of 18–22 percent since the 1970s, has been accompanied by increased uncertainty and relative price dispersion; and that inflation has had a negative and persistent effect on real GDP growth.
Inflation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics --- Prices --- Colombia
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Although several studies have examined why overall price levels are higher in richer countries, little is known about whether there is a similar relationship at the urban and city level across countries. This paper compares the price levels of cities in Sub-Saharan Africa with those of other regions by analyzing price information collected for the 2011 round of the International Comparison Program. Readjusting the calculated price levels from national to urban levels, the analysis indicates that African cities are relatively more expensive, despite having lower income levels. The price levels of goods and services consumed by households are up to 31percent higher in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other low- and middle-income countries, relative to their income levels. Food and non-alcoholic beverages are especially expensive, with price levels around 35 percent higher than in other countries. The paper also analyzes price information collected by the Economist Intelligence Unit's Worldwide Cost of Living Survey, and obtains a similar result, indicating higher prices of goods and services in African cities.
International Comparison Program --- Price Level --- Purchasing Power Parity --- Urbanization
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Although the theoretical relationships are ambiguous, evidence suggestsa strong link between the choice of the exchange rate regime and economicperformance. The paper argues that adopting a pegged exchange rate canlead to lower inflation, but also to slower growth in productivity. Itfinds that on average per capita GDP growth was slightly faster underfloating regimes than under pegged exchange regimes.
Economic growth --- International finance --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Conventional peg --- Prices
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The paper develops a model of exchange rate regime choice centered on the trade-off between internal price stability and external competitiveness and allowing for institutional costs of altering exchange rate arrangements. The main implication of the model is a nonlinear relationship between the rate of inflation and the choice of regime for the next period. The model also suggests that a major inflationary shock-like the one to which all Central and Eastern European economies were subject when they allowed prices to be determined by the market-should give rise to a tightening of the exchange rate regime, followed by a gradual introduction of more flexibility as inflation subsides. A series of regressions on a sample of 13 Central and Eastern European economies yield results consistent with the hypothesis.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Conventional peg --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Bulgaria
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This paper analyses how globalization has affected inflation in the New EU Members States (NMS), and Poland in particular, since 1995. It finds prices have become less sensitive to domestic economic conditions as trade integration rose, possibly because monetary policy incentives increasingly shifted toward meeting price stability objectives. Quantitatively, globalization appears to have lowered Polish prices by ½ to 1 percentage point annually since 1995, substantially more than in advanced economies. However, future inflation-dampening effects in the NMS are likely to be smaller as the pace of increases in trade openness moderates.
Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Globalization --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Globalization: General --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Import prices --- Imports --- Consumer prices --- Prices --- Poland, Republic of --- Inflation (Finance) --- Globalization.
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This paper compares the experience with exchange-rate–based stabilization (ERBS) of four Western European countries with that of high-inflation developing countries. In general, the behavior of key macroeconomic variables—inflation, output, demand, the real exchange rate and the current account—in the four countries examined did not correspond to the pattern observed in developing countries, although some resemblance to this pattern could be found in Italy in 1987–92 and Greece in 1994–96. The experience with ERBS in Western Europe highlights the importance of incomes policy as an ingredient of a successful stabilization program and shows that the adoption of a looser anchor does not necessarily reduce the output cost of disinflation.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Fiscal Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Real exchange rates --- Fiscal consolidation --- Disinflation --- Prices --- Fiscal policy --- Italy
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Evaluation of policy rules using empirical macroeconomic models is usually done on the assumption that the rules are perfectly credible. However, there are usually circumstances that cause the authorities to abandon any given rule. The public's expectations reflect this possibility. In the paper, credibility is assumed to depend on the probability that the authorities will abandon a rule because the resulting utility exceeds that from maintaining the rule. Simulations of a disinflation policy leading to price stability are presented. Its credibility varies over time, depending on the paths for output and inflation.
Inflation --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Expectations --- Speculations --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics --- Capacity utilization --- Prices --- Production --- Industrial capacity --- United States
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Publication of minutes of monthly monetary policy meetings between the Chancellor of the Exchequer and the Governor of the Bank of England was a conspicuous feature of the United Kingdom’s inflation targeting framework from 1994 through April 1997. It was intended to reinforce credibility by publicizing the criteria on which policy was decided. On some occasions, however, these minutes revealed disagreement between the participants. This paper examines whether such disagreement unsettled the markets and detracted from credibility.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Inflation targeting --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Germany
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Persistent inflation and slow stabilization are usually the result of policy accommodation resorted to in an attempt to avoid the recessionary costs of a sharp reduction of inflation. This paper reviews three explanations for why policymakers, despite their dislike of inflation, may nevertheless choose to adopt accommodative policies. It emphasizes the role of indexation, uncertainty about policymakers’ preferences, and the existence of fixed costs associated with the implementation of a stabilization program. The paper also presents some evidence on the extent of persistence of inflation across countries.
Inflation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomics --- Inflation persistence --- Disinflation --- Prices --- Belgium
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