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Food price inflation in Brazil in the twelve months to June 2008 was 18 percent, while overall inflation was 5.3 percent. This paper uses spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys to estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households. Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominantly wage-earning agricultural labor force, our estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of changes in consumer surplus. While the expenditure (or consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly regressive everywhere, the market income effect was positive and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection afforded by increases in two large social assistance benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil was U-shaped, with the middle-income groups suffering larger proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless, since Brazil is 80 percent urban, higher food prices still led to a greater incidence and depth of poverty at the national level.

Food & Beverage Industry --- Food Prices --- Inequality --- Markets and Market Access --- Poverty --- Poverty reduction --- Price Change Incidence Curve --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social development --- Welfare --- Brazil

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This paper proposes a new method for ex ante analysis of the poverty impacts arising from policy reforms. Three innovations underlie this approach. The first is the estimation of a global demand system using a combination of micro-data from household surveys and macro-data from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). Estimation is undertaken in a manner that reconciles these two sources of information, explicitly recognizing that per capita national demands are an aggregation of the disaggregated, individual household demands. The second innovation relates to a methodology for post-estimation calibration of the global demand system, giving rise to country-specific demand systems and an associated expenditure function which, when aggregated across the expenditure distribution, reproduce observed per capita budget shares exactly. This leads to the third innovation, which is the establishment of a unique poverty level of utility and an appropriately modified set of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures. With these tools in hand, the authors are able to calculate the change in the head-count of poverty, poverty gap, and squared poverty gap arising from policy reforms, where the poverty measures are derived using a unique poverty level of utility, rather than an income or expenditure-based measure. They use these techniques with a demand system for food, other nondurables and services estimated using a combination of 1996 ICP data set and national expenditure distribution data. Calibration is demonstrated for three countries for which household survey expenditure data are used during estimation-Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. To show the usefulness of these calibrated models for policy analysis, the authors assess the effects of an assumed 5 percent food price rise as might be realized in the wake of a multilateral trade agreement. Results illustrate the important role of subsistence expenditures at lowest income levels, but of discretionary expenditure at higher income levels. The welfare analysis underscores the relatively large impact of the price hike on poorer households, while a modified Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measure shows that the 5 percent price rise increases the incidence and intensity of poverty in all three cases, although the specific effects vary considerably by country.

Debt Markets --- Economic Theory and Research --- Expenditure --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial crisis --- Financial support --- Food and Beverage Industry --- Income levels --- Industry --- International Bank --- International trade --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Micro-data --- Price change --- Price changes

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In an economy characterized by frequent change in technology, in the types of goods and services purchased, and in the forms of business organization, keeping track of price change continues to pose many difficulties. Price change affects the way we perceive changes in such basic measures as real output, productivity, and living standards. This volume, which brings together academic economists with those responsible for official price indexes, presents outstanding new research on price measurement. Half of the papers focus on prices for mainframe and personal computers, semiconductors, and other high-tech products, using mainly hedonic techniques. The volume includes a panel discussion by distinguished economists about the theoretical and practical considerations of how best to measure price change of capital goods whose quality is changing rapidly. The authors also present new research on more conventional but still unsettled problems in the price field affecting both the consumer and producer price indexes of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Computers --- Consumer price indexes --- Price indexes --- Semiconductors --- Prices --- economy, technology, goods, services, business organization, price change, output, productivity, living standards, high-tech products, semiconductors, personal computers, mainframe, retirement, depreciation, apparel, aircraft, military, regulation, government, trade, international, defense, nonfiction, economics, list prices.

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What is the welfare effect of a price change? This simple question is one of the most relevant and controversial questions in microeconomic theory and its different answers can lead to severe heterogeneity in empirical results. This paper returns to this question with the objective of providing a general framework for the use of theoretical contributions in empirical works, with a particular focus on poor people and poor countries. Welfare measures (such as Equivalent Variation or Consumer's Surplus) and computational methods (such as Taylor's approximations or the Vartia method) are compared to test how these choices result in different welfare measurement under different price shock scenarios. As a rule of thumb and irrespective of parameter choices, welfare measures converge to approximately the same result for price changes below 10 percent. Above this threshold, these measures start to diverge significantly. Budget shares play an important role in explaining such divergence, whereas the choice of demand system has a minor role. Under standard utility assumptions, the Laspeyers and Paasche variations are always the outer bounds of welfare estimates and consumer surplus is always the median estimate. The paper also introduces a new simple welfare approximation, clarifies the relation between Taylor's approximations and the income and substitution effects, and provides an example for treating nonlinear pricing. Stata codes for all computations are provided in annex.

Access to Markets --- Agriculture --- Choice --- Consumer Demand --- Consumer Preferences --- Consumer Surplus --- Consumers --- Consumption --- Cost of Living --- Data --- Demand --- Demand Curves --- Demand Function --- Developing Countries --- Distribution --- E-Business --- Econometrics --- Economic Research --- Economic Theory & Research --- Economics Literature --- Elasticity --- Electricity --- Emerging Markets --- Engel Curve --- Equity --- Exchange --- Expenditure --- Food Price --- Free Market --- Government Revenues --- Income --- Income Effects --- Index Numbers --- Information --- Interest --- International Economics & Trade --- Lorenz Curve --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market Prices --- Markets & Market Access --- Money --- Nominal Income --- Normal Good --- Open Access --- Outputs --- Particular Country --- PC --- Price --- Price Adjustments --- Price Change --- Price Decreases --- Price Elasticity --- Price Increases --- Price Schedule --- Price Structure --- Price Variation --- Price_Index --- Pricing --- Private Sector Development --- Product --- Productivity --- Real Income --- Reliability --- Results --- Sales --- Savings --- Subsidies --- Substitute --- Substitute Goods --- Substitution --- Surplus --- Tax --- Tax Systems --- Transactions --- Utility --- Utility Function --- Utility Maximization --- Value --- Variables --- Wages --- Web --- Welfare --- Welfare Economics

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Subsidies and cross-subsidies in the energy sector are common throughout Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In Belarus, revenues from an industrial tariff on electricity are used to cross-subsidize heating for households. Input-output (IO) data and a household consumption survey are used to analyze the distributional impacts of this cross-subsidization. This paper illustrates cost shares and electricity-intensity of different sectors and consumption categories and uses the IO data to obtain first-order estimates of the distributional incidence of policy reform. The paper then analyzes distributional impacts of subsidy reform with a Computable General Equilibrium model. Although poorer households benefit from reduced heating costs, the increase in prices of other consumer goods due to higher electricity prices more than offsets the benefits they receive from the subsidies. The analysis finds that the current cross-subsidies are regressive, and policy reform would be highly progressive.

Agriculture --- Approach --- Banking --- Benchmark --- Benchmark data --- Capital --- Capital returns --- Commodities --- Commodity --- Communication --- Competition --- Consumer demand --- Consumer good --- Consumer goods --- Consumer groups --- Consumer prices --- Consumers --- Consumption --- Cost increase --- Cost of electricity --- Cost of funds --- Costs --- Customer --- Customers --- Demand --- Developing economy --- Development policy --- Distribution --- District heating --- Domestic market --- Domestic price --- Economic cooperation --- Economic development --- Economic statistics --- Economic systems --- Economic theory & research --- Economics literature --- Elasticity --- Elasticity of substitution --- Electricity --- Electricity prices --- Emerging markets --- Energy --- Energy price --- Energy prices --- Energy production and transportation --- Equilibrium --- Equilibrium analysis --- Equilibrium price --- Equilibrium prices --- Exchange --- Expenditure --- Expenditures --- Export market --- Exports --- Externalities --- Factors of production --- Foreign exchange --- Fossil --- Fossil fuel --- Fuel --- Fuels --- Functional forms --- General equilibrium analysis --- Goods --- Heat --- Household analysis --- Income --- Income group --- Income groups --- Income levels --- Incomes --- Inputs --- Intermediate goods --- International markets --- Inventory --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Marginal cost --- Market --- Markets --- Markets & market access --- Multipliers --- Natural resources --- Oil --- Oil products --- Optimization --- Output --- Outputs --- Payments --- Perfect competition --- Price --- Price change --- Price changes --- Price index --- Price levels --- Prices --- Pricing --- Pricing policy --- Pricing scheme --- Private sector development --- Product --- Production --- Production costs --- Production function --- Production functions --- Production increases --- Production of coke --- Production structure --- Products --- Rate of return --- Real estate --- Rent --- Residential energy --- Revenue --- Savings --- Share --- Shares --- Subsidies --- Subsidization --- Subsidy --- Substitute --- Substitutes --- Substitution --- Supply --- Supply costs --- Tariff --- Tax --- Tax rate --- Tax rates --- Taxes --- Theory --- Total output --- Trade --- Transition economies --- Transport --- Transport economics policy and planning --- Trends --- Utility --- Utility functions --- Value --- Value added --- Variables --- Wealth --- Welfare