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Cette evaluation s'appuie sur un travail anterieur du departement de l'evaluation des operations (OED) qui evalue dans quelle mesure la strategie de reduction de la pauvrete a permis jusqu'a present de concretiser les principes de la Carte de developpement integree (CDF) en actions, en quoi la strategie repond a la demande des pays en termes de reduction durable de la pauvrete, et l'efficacite de la Banque dans l'appui et l'alignement de ses propres programmes sur l'approche de la strategie de reduction de la pauvrete. L'OED a mene cette evaluation parallelement a une evaluation, par le Bureau d'evaluation independant du Fonds monetaire international (FMI), des documents de la strategie de reduction de la pauvrete et de la Facilite pour la reduction de la pauvrete et pour la croissance.

Country Studies --- Joint Management Mechanisms --- Poverty Reduction Strategies --- Project Design --- Value Added

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This paper validates a recently proposed method to estimate intra-generational mobility through repeated cross-sectional surveys. The technique allows the creation of a "synthetic panel" - done by predicting future or past household income using a set of simple modeling and error structure assumptions - and thus permits the estimation of lower and upper bounds on directional mobility measures. The authors validate the approach in three different settings where good panel data also exist (Chile, Nicaragua, and Peru). In doing so, they also carry out a number of refinements to the validation procedure. The results are broadly encouraging: the methodology performs well in all three settings, especially in cases where richer model specifications can be estimated. The technique does equally well in predicting short and long-term mobility patterns and is robust to a broad set of additional "stress" and sensitivity tests. Overall, the paper lends support to the application of this approach to settings where panel data are absent.

Gender --- Housing & Human Habitats --- Mobility --- Poverty --- Poverty reduction --- Poverty Reduction Strategies --- Pseudo-panels --- Science Education --- Scientific Research & Science Parks --- Services & Transfers to Poor --- Synthetic panels --- Chile --- Nicaragua --- Peru

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This paper presents evidence about the impact on school enrollment of a program in Ecuador that gives cash transfers to the 40 percent poorest families. The evaluation design consists of a randomized experiment for families around the first quintile of the poverty index and of a regression discontinuity design for families around the second quintile of this index, which is the program's eligibility threshold. This allows us to compare results from two different credible identification methods, and to investigate whether the impact varies with families' poverty level. Around the first quintile of the poverty index the impact is positive while it is equal to zero around the second quintile. This suggests that for the poorest families the program lifts a credit constraint while this is not the case for families close to the eligibility threshold.

Cash transfer programs --- Cash transfers --- Health Systems Development and Reform --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Human capital --- Human development --- Poor --- Poor families --- Poverty --- Poverty index --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty reduction --- Poverty Reduction Strategies --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social programs

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Interventions aimed at increasing the income generating capacity of the poor, such as vocational training, micro-finance or business grants, are widespread in the developing world. How to target such interventions is an open question. Many programs are self-targeted, but if perceived returns differ from actual returns, those self-selecting to participate may not be those for whom the program is the most effective. The authors analyze an unusual experiment with very high take-up of business grants and vocational skills training, randomly assigned among nearly all households in selected poor rural communities in Nicaragua. On average, the interventions resulted in increased participation in non-agricultural employment and higher income from related activities. The paper investigates whether targeting could have resulted in higher returns by analyzing heterogeneity in impacts by stated baseline demand, prior participation in non-agricultural activities, and a wide range of complementary asset endowments. The results reveal little heterogeneity along observed baseline characteristics. However, the poorest households are more likely to enter and have higher profits in non-agricultural self-employment, while less poor households assigned to the training have higher non-agricultural wages. This heterogeneity appears related to unobserved characteristics that are not revealed by stated baseline demand, and more difficult to target. In this context, self-targeting may reduce the poverty-reduction potential of income generating interventions, possibly because low aspirations limit the poor's ex-ante demand for productive interventions while the interventions have the potential to increase those aspirations. Overall, targeting productive interventions to poor households would not have come at the cost of reducing their effectiveness. By contrast, self-targeting would have limited poverty reduction by excluding the poorest.

Aspirations --- Business grants --- Business in Development --- Cash transfers --- Conditional Cash Transfers --- Education --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Reduction Strategies --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Randomized experiment --- Targeting --- Vocational Education & Technical Training --- Vocational training

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In the absence of household level data on participation in public programs, spending allocations and poverty measures across regions of Morocco are used to infer incidence across poor and non-poor groups and to decompose incidence within rural and urban areas separately, as well as to decompose improvements in enrollment rates across poor and non-poor children by gender. Programs appear to be well targeted to the rural poor but not to the urban poor. Substantial benefits accrue to the urban non-poor, while benefits largely bypass the urban poor. The analysis also uncovers evidence of impressive progress in primary and secondary school enrollments for the poor, as well as for poor girls since 1994. However, here too, the gains are concentrated on the rural poor. This paper-a product of the Public Services Team, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the incidence and targeting of public expenditures.

Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Level Data --- Poor --- Poor Children --- Poor Girls --- Population Policies --- Poverty --- Poverty Incidence --- Poverty Incidence Across Regions --- Poverty Map --- Poverty Measures --- Poverty Programs --- Poverty Rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Reduction Strategies --- Rural --- Rural Development --- Rural Infrastructure --- Rural Infrastructure Problem --- Rural Level --- Rural Poor --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Rural Roads --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Social Programs --- Targeting --- Transfers