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The affordability of nutritious diets is increasingly used as a metric of how well a food system provides access to nutritious diets for all. Recent work on least-cost diets has focused on individuals, while most food and anti-poverty programs and policies target the household level. Members within households have differing nutritional needs, presenting the methodological question: how should the cost of nutritious diets be estimated at the household level This study develops bounds on the cost, affordability, and seasonal variation of least-cost diets for whole households, illustrated with the example of Malawi. When intrahousehold sharing is not possible to observe, the bounded approach provides insights into the range of the cost and affordability, and the extent to which the cost may vary seasonally. The results reveal that when meals are shared, ignoring demographic diversity within households greatly underestimates the affordability of adequate diets.
Agriculture --- Diet Cost --- Food Affordability --- Food and Nutrition Policy --- Food Price --- Food Security --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Meal Sharing --- Nutrient Adequacy --- Nutrition --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Reduction
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This paper documents some of the first estimates of the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on food security in a low- and middle-income country context. It combines nationally representative pre- pandemic household survey data with follow-up phone survey data from Mali and exploits sub- national variation in the intensity of pandemic-related disruptions between urban and rural areas. These disruptions stem from both government policies aiming to slow the spread of the virus and also individual behavior motivated by fear of contracting the virus. The paper finds evidence of increasing food insecurity in Mali associated with the pandemic. Difference-in-difference estimates show that moderate food insecurity increased by about 8 percentage points - a 33 percent increase - in urban areas compared with rural areas in Mali. The estimates are substantially larger than existing predictions of the average effect of the pandemic on food security globally and therefore highlights the critical importance of understanding effect heterogeneity.
Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Food Security --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Inequality --- Pandemic Impact --- Poverty --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Urban Linkages --- Urban Development
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This paper uses the roll-out of the national health insurance in Ghana to assess the cushioning effect of coverage on the financial consequences of health shocks and resulting changes in coping behaviors. The analysis finds a strong reduction in medical expenditures, preventing households from cutting non-food consumption and causing a decrease in the volume of received remittances as well as the labor supply of healthy adult household members. Moreover, the paper presents evidence that the insurance scheme reduced the likelihood that households experiencing a health shock pulled their children out of school to put them to work. Avoidance of such costly coping mechanisms is potentially an important part of the social value of formal health insurance.
Child Labor --- Coping Strategy --- Health Insurance --- Health Shock --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Labor Supply --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Analysis --- Social Development --- Social Protection
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Nearly one in three children under age five in the Philippines is stunted, a key marker of undernutrition. This rate is high for the country's level of income. This paper provides the first detailed multivariate analysis of potential drivers of stunting in the Philippines, using data from the 2015 National Nutrition Survey. Potential drivers are analyzed individually and grouped in major categories. The analysis finds that stunting between 24-60 months is principally associated with suboptimal prenatal conditions and inadequate food security and diversity. If the results are given a causal interpretation, they imply that if all Filipino newborns had adequate prenatal conditions, the fraction stunted at age 24-60 months would fall by 20 percent. Similarly, providing adequate food security and diversity to all Filipino children would reduce stunting by 22 percent. Other factors - including access to water, sanitation, and environmental conditions - have less strong associations with stunting. The results point to a series of policy priorities to reduce stunting: supporting the nutrition and health of expectant mothers, ensuring access to contraception to reduce adolescent pregnancy, and ensuring that children consume a variety of healthy foods, including protein-dense foods such as milk, meat, and eggs.
Child Health --- Early Child and Children's Health --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Nutrition --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Reduction --- Reproductive Health --- Stunting
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The COVID-19 pandemic has brought about massive declines in well-being around the world. This paper seeks to quantify and compare two important components of those losses'increased mortality and higher poverty-using years of human life as a common metric. The paper estimates that almost 20 million life-years were lost to COVID-19 by December 2020. Over the same period and by the most conservative definition, more than 120 million additional years were spent in poverty because of the pandemic. The mortality burden, whether estimated in lives or years of life lost, increases sharply with gross domestic product per capita. By contrast, the poverty burden declines with per capita national income when a constant absolute poverty line is used, or is uncorrelated with national income when a more relative approach is taken to poverty lines. In both cases, the poverty burden of the pandemic, relative to the mortality burden, is much higher for poor countries. The distribution of aggregate welfare losses-combining mortality and poverty and expressed in terms of life-years -depends on the choice of poverty line(s) and the relative weights placed on mortality and poverty. With a constant absolute poverty line and a relatively low welfare weight on mortality, poorer countries are found to bear a greater welfare loss from the pandemic. When poverty lines are set differently for poor, middle-income, and high-income countries and/or a greater welfare weight is placed on mortality, upper-middle-income and rich countries suffer the most.
Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Global Wealth Distribution --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mortality --- Pandemic Impact --- Poverty --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Welfare
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The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in border closures in many countries and a sharp reduction in overall international mobility. However, this disruption of legal pathways to migration has raised concerns that potential migrants may turn to irregular migration routes as a substitute. This paper examines how the pandemic has changed intentions to migrate from The Gambia, the country with the highest pre-pandemic per-capita irregular migration rates in Africa. A large-scale panel survey conducted in 2019 and 2020 is used to compare changes in intentions to migrate to Europe and to neighboring Senegal. The data show that the pandemic has reduced the intention to migrate to both destinations, with approximately one-third of young males expressing less intention to migrate. The largest reductions in migration intentions are for individuals who were unsure of their intent pre-pandemic, and for poorer individuals who are no longer able to afford the costs of migrating at a time when these costs have increased and their remittance income has fallen. This paper also introduces the methodology of priming experiments to the study of migration intentions, by randomly varying the salience of the COVID-19 pandemic before eliciting intentions to migrate. There is no impact of this added salience, which appears to be because knowledge of the virus, while imperfect, was already enough to inform migration decisions. Nevertheless, despite these decreases in intentions, the overall desire to migrate the backway to Europe remains high, highlighting the need for legal migration pathways to support migrants and divert them from the risks of backway migration.
Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Labor Force Survey --- Labor Markets --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migration --- Migratory Intention --- Pandemic Impact --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Reduction --- Remittances --- Social Protections and Labor
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In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain the spread of COVID-19 can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, this paper builds a macro-susceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality. The model is calibrated to data for 85 countries across all income levels. The findings show that in low-income countries, a lockdown can potentially lead to 1.76 children's lives lost due to the economic contraction per COVID-19 fatality averted. The figure stands at 0.59 and 0.06 in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, respectively. As a result, in some countries, lockdowns can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdowns are shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones and never produce a net mortality increase.
Business Cycle --- Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Child Mortality --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Early Child and Children's Health --- Economic Downturn --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Inequality --- Labor Markets --- Lockdown --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Pandemic Impact --- Pandemic Response --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Reduction --- Sir-Macro
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The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the attempts to limit its spread have resulted in profound economic impacts, and a significant contraction in the global economy is expected. This paper provides some of the first evidence on the socioeconomic impacts of and responses to the pandemic among households and individuals in Sub-Saharan Africa. To do so, reduced-form econometric methods are applied to longitudinal household survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda - originating from the pre-COVID-19 face-to-face household surveys and from the novel phone surveys that are being implemented during the pandemic. The headline findings are fourfold. First, although false beliefs about COVID-19 remain prevalent, government action to limit the spread of the disease is associated with greater individual knowledge of the disease and increased uptake of precautionary measures. Second, 256 million individuals - 77 percent of the population in the four countries - are estimated to live in households that have lost income due to the pandemic. Third, attempts to cope with this loss are exacerbated by the inability to access medicine and staple foods among 20 to 25 percent of the households in each country, and food insecurity is disproportionately borne by households that were already impoverished prior to the pandemic. Fourth, student-teacher contact has dropped from a pre-COVID-19 rate of 96 percent to just 17 percent among households with school-age children. These findings can help inform decisions by governments and international organizations on measures to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and reveal the need for continued monitoring.
Access of Poor to Social Services --- Access To Basic Services --- Access To Education --- Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Employment and Unemployment --- Food Security --- Income Loss --- Inequality --- Pandemic Impact --- Poverty --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Monitoring and Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Socioeconomic Impact
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This paper assesses the impact of immigration to Western Europe on the exposure of native-born workers to economic and health risks created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Using various measures of occupational risks, it first shows that immigrant workers, especially those coming from lower-income member countries of the European Union or from outside the European Union, are more exposed to the negative income shocks relative to the natives. The paper then examines whether immigration has an impact on the exposure of natives to COVID-19-related risks in Western Europe. A Bartik-type shift share instrument is used to control for potential unobservable factors that would lead migrants to self-select into more vulnerable occupations across regions and bias the results. The results of the instrumental variable estimates indicate that the presence of immigrant workers had a causal impact in reducing the exposure of natives to COVID-19-related economic and health risks in European regions. Estimated effects are stronger for high-skilled native workers than for low-skilled natives and for women relative to men. The paper does not find any significant effect of immigration on wages and employment, which indicates that the effects are mostly driven by a reallocation from less safe jobs to safer jobs.
Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Employment and Unemployment --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Immigrant Labor --- Labor Force Participation --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Migrant Worker --- Migration --- Occupational Choice --- Occupational Health And Safety --- Pandemic Impact --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor
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The study is a randomized controlled trial that investigates the impact of four demand-side interventions on health screening for diabetes and hypertension among Armenian adults ages 35-68 who had not been tested in the last 12 months. The interventions are personal invitations from a physician (intervention group 1), personal invitations with information about peer screening behavior (intervention group 2), a labeled but unconditional cash transfer in the form of a pharmacy voucher (intervention group 3), and a conditional cash transfer in the form of a pharmacy voucher (intervention group 4). Compared with the control group in which only 3.5 percent of participants went for both screenings during the study period, interventions 1 to 3 led to a significant increase in the screening rate of about 15 percentage points among participants. The highest intervention impact was measured among recipients in intervention group 4, whose uptake of screening on both tests increased by 31.2 percentage points. The levels of cost-effectiveness of intervention groups 1, 2, and 4 are similar while for intervention group 3 it is about twice more expensive per additional person screened.
Access to Health Services --- Conditional Cash Transfers --- Diabetes --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Health Screening --- Health Service Management and Delivery --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Hypertension --- Incentives --- Non-Communicable Diseases --- Poverty and Health --- Poverty Reduction --- Primary Health Care --- Services and Transfers to Poor
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