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Teenage pregnancy has been a cause of concern for policy makers because it is associated with a complex and often adverse social context for women. It is seen as the cause of lower social and economic achievement for mothers and their children, and as the potential determinant of inter-generational poverty traps. However, the question of whether pregnancy-and the subsequent rearing of a child-is actually the trigger of poverty, higher dependence on social welfare and/ or other undesirable social and economic consequences has not been studied in developing countries with enough rigor to establish a causal relation. This paper follows a methodology previously applied in the United States, using Mexican data from the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics, to exploit information about miscarriages as an instrument to identify the long-term consequences of early child bearing. Thus, the paper takes the advantage of a natural experiment: it compares the outcomes of women who became pregnant in adolescence, and gave birth, to outcomes of women who became pregnant in adolescence and miscarried. This approach only allows for estimating the costs of adolescent childbearing for teenagers in a risk group, that is, teenagers who are likely to experience a pregnancy. The results are consistent with findings in the United States, suggesting that, contrary to popular thinking, adolescent childbearing does not hamper significantly the lifelong opportunities of the young mothers. Actually, women who gave birth during their adolescence have on average 0.34 more years of education, and are 21 percentage points more likely to be employed, compared with their counterparts who miscarried. The results also suggest, however, greater dependence on social welfare among women who gave birth during adolescence: their social assistance income is 36 percent higher, and they are more likely to participate in social programs, especially the conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades.
Adolescent Health --- Gender and Health --- Gender and Law --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Natural experiment --- Population Policies --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty traps --- Reproductive Health --- Teenage pregnancy --- Welfare
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Teenage pregnancy has been a cause of concern for policy makers because it is associated with a complex and often adverse social context for women. It is seen as the cause of lower social and economic achievement for mothers and their children, and as the potential determinant of inter-generational poverty traps. However, the question of whether pregnancy-and the subsequent rearing of a child-is actually the trigger of poverty, higher dependence on social welfare and/ or other undesirable social and economic consequences has not been studied in developing countries with enough rigor to establish a causal relation. This paper follows a methodology previously applied in the United States, using Mexican data from the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics, to exploit information about miscarriages as an instrument to identify the long-term consequences of early child bearing. Thus, the paper takes the advantage of a natural experiment: it compares the outcomes of women who became pregnant in adolescence, and gave birth, to outcomes of women who became pregnant in adolescence and miscarried. This approach only allows for estimating the costs of adolescent childbearing for teenagers in a risk group, that is, teenagers who are likely to experience a pregnancy. The results are consistent with findings in the United States, suggesting that, contrary to popular thinking, adolescent childbearing does not hamper significantly the lifelong opportunities of the young mothers. Actually, women who gave birth during their adolescence have on average 0.34 more years of education, and are 21 percentage points more likely to be employed, compared with their counterparts who miscarried. The results also suggest, however, greater dependence on social welfare among women who gave birth during adolescence: their social assistance income is 36 percent higher, and they are more likely to participate in social programs, especially the conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades.
Adolescent Health --- Gender and Health --- Gender and Law --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Natural experiment --- Population Policies --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty traps --- Reproductive Health --- Teenage pregnancy --- Welfare
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This paper reviews the empirical evidence on the existence of poverty traps, understood as self-reinforcing mechanisms through which poor individuals or countries remain poor. Poverty traps have captured the interest of many development policy makers, because poverty traps provide a theoretically coherent explanation for persistent poverty. They also suggest that temporary policy interventions may have long-term effects on poverty. However, a review of the reduced-form empirical evidence suggests that truly stagnant incomes of the sort predicted by standard models of poverty traps are in fact quite rare. Moreover, the empirical evidence regarding several canonical mechanisms underlying models of poverty traps is mixed.
Debt Markets --- Economic Theory & Research --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Growth --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Traps --- Rural Poverty Reduction
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This paper investigates whether the utilization of microcredit programs has a significant impact on the income and net worth of the participants. Several micro finance institutes are optimistic on the beneficial effects of microcredit programs. Others describe microcredit with interest rates in excess of 20 percent as a poverty trap. This paper uses more than 20 years of panel data on households in Bangladesh to estimate bounds on the causal effects of microcredit programs. The analysis rejects the hypothesis that these microcredit programs are a poverty trap. Moreover, the paper finds moderately positive effects of such programs.
Access to Finance --- Bounds Analysis --- Debt Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Household Income --- Microcredit Programs --- Poverty Monitoring & Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Traps --- Randomized Controlled Trials --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Development
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According to global spatial data sets in 2000 more than one-third of the rural population in developing countries was located on less favored agricultural land and areas. Less favored agricultural lands are susceptible to low productivity and degradation, because their agricultural potential is constrained biophysically by terrain, poor soil quality, or limited rainfall. Less favored agricultural areas include less favored agricultural lands plus favorable agricultural land that is remote, that is, land in rural areas with high agricultural potential but with limited access. The paper presents tests of whether these spatial distributions of rural population influence poverty directly or indirectly via income growth in 83 developing countries from 2000 to 2012. The analysis finds no evidence of a direct impact on poverty, but there is a significant indirect impact via the elasticity of poverty reduction with respect to growth. Reducing poverty requires targeting rural populations in less favored lands and remote areas, in addition to encouraging out-migration in some areas.
Developing Countries --- Geographical Poverty Traps --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Less Favored Areas --- Less Favored Lands --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Population Policies --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Spatial Distribution
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This paper examines the possibility of environmental "development traps," or "brown poverty traps," caused by interactions between the impacts of climate change and increasing returns in the development of "clean-technology" sectors. A simple specification is used in which the economy can produce a single homogeneous consumption good with two different technologies. In the "old" sector, technology has global diminishing returns to scale and depends on the use of fossil energy that gives rise to long-lived, damaging climate change. In the "new" sector, the technology has convex-concave production and is not dependent on the polluting energy input. If the new sector does not grow fast enough to move through the phase of increasing returns, then the economy may linger at a low level of income indefinitely or it may achieve greater progress but then get driven back down to a lower level of income by environmental degradation. Stimulating growth in the new sector thus may be a key element for avoiding an environmental poverty trap and achieving higher, sustained income levels.
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This paper studies the impact of a large debt relief program, intended to attenuate investment constraints among highly-indebted households in rural India. It isolates the causal effect of bankruptcy-like debt relief settlements using a natural experiment arising from India's Debt Relief Program for Small and Marginal Farmers - one of the largest debt relief initiatives in history. The analysis shows that debt relief has a persistent effect on the level of household debt, but does not increase investment and productivity as predicted by theories of debt overhang. Instead, the anticipation of future credit constraints leads to a greater reliance on informal financing, lower investment and a decline in productivity among bailout recipients. The results suggest that one-time settlements may be insufficient to incentivize new investment, but can have significant real effects through their impact on borrower expectations.
Access to Finance --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Credit constraints --- Debt and poverty traps --- Debt Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Household finance --- Investment --- Private Sector Development
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Upon request of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) Principals at their meeting on December 11, 2015, the World Bank agreed to coordinate a process of reviewing key issues and options for significantly scaling up the use of multipurpose cash transfers (MPCTs; including digital cash and vouchers) in the humanitarian space. This note lays out the main findings and options emerging from the process. The main text is complemented by a set of seven appendixes, detailing the process and feedback received, as well as presenting a thorough review of the evidence and evidence gaps in the comparative effectiveness of cash and in-kind programs across humanitarian objectives. This note synthesizes main issues and findings from the process, including defining overarching issues (section 2), setting out the overall context in which a wider use of cash should be considered (section 3), and identifying the specific areas to help unleash a wider use of cash transfers when and where appropriate (section 4).
Administrative Costs --- Agriculture --- Capacity Building --- Cash Transfers --- Child Health --- Conflict --- Corn --- Death --- Drinking Water --- Food Assistance --- Food Consumption --- Food Security --- Food Shortage --- Grains --- Hygiene --- Income Inequality --- Inequality --- Logistics --- Maize --- Malnutrition --- Natural Disasters --- Political Economy --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Traps --- Rice --- Savings --- School Feeding Programs --- Social Development --- Social Protections and Labor --- Sugar --- Transaction Costs --- User Fees --- Wheat --- World Food Programme
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This policy note provides an assessment of some of the impacts and proposed policy responses to problems related to the drought, including the rise in food prices. To address immediate needs, the humanitarian response to the drought is being managed by the Government of Kenya and a number of international organizations including the World Food Program (WFP), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF). Recognizing that response needs are currently recognizing that response needs are currently being addressed, this note focuses on policy changes that can address long term vulnerabilities related to the drought.
Agribusiness & Markets --- Agricultural Policy --- Agriculture --- Cash Transfers --- Climate Change --- Drought Management --- Expenditures --- External Shocks --- Food Security --- Household Income --- Human Capital --- Hunger --- Insurance --- Land Tenure --- Maize --- Poverty Line --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Traps --- Price Stability --- Rainy Season --- Rice --- Risk Aversion --- Risk Management --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Insurance --- Social Protections and Labor --- Staple Foods --- Surplus --- Water Resources --- Wheat --- World Food Programme
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This book explores how persistent states of underdevelopment can arise in strategic environments in which players are imitative rather than fully rational. Standard growth theory teaches that poverty traps are stable, low-level balanced growth paths to which economies gravitate due to adverse initial conditions or poor equilibrium selection. In other words, societies fail to take off into sustained growth because they started out as poor, with, for example, low longevity or poor human capital, or because they cannot invent institutions that successfully coordinate their investments.Evolutionar
Game theory. --- Evolutionary economics. --- Economics, Mathematical. --- Economic development --- Poverty traps. --- Traps, Poverty --- Economics --- Growth models (Economics) --- Mathematical economics --- Econometrics --- Mathematics --- Games, Theory of --- Theory of games --- Mathematical models --- Mathematical models. --- Methodology --- Human capital --- Research --- Science --- Science research --- Scientific research --- Information services --- Learning and scholarship --- Research teams --- Human assets --- Human beings --- Human resources --- Capital --- Labor supply --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Economic aspects --- Economic value --- E-books
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