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At the outset of China's reform period, the country had a far higher poverty rate than for Africa as a whole. Within five years that was no longer true. This paper tries to explain how China escaped from a situation in which extreme poverty persisted due to failed and unpopular policies. While acknowledging that Africa faces constraints that China did not, and that context matters, two lessons stand out. The first is the importance of productivity growth in smallholder agriculture, which will require both market-based incentives and public support. The second is the role played by strong leadership and a capable public administration at all levels of government.
Absolute Poverty --- Extreme Poverty --- Inequality --- National Poverty --- National Poverty Line --- Poor --- Poverty Line --- Poverty Rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Smallholder Agriculture
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At the outset of China's reform period, the country had a far higher poverty rate than for Africa as a whole. Within five years that was no longer true. This paper tries to explain how China escaped from a situation in which extreme poverty persisted due to failed and unpopular policies. While acknowledging that Africa faces constraints that China did not, and that context matters, two lessons stand out. The first is the importance of productivity growth in smallholder agriculture, which will require both market-based incentives and public support. The second is the role played by strong leadership and a capable public administration at all levels of government.
Absolute Poverty --- Extreme Poverty --- Inequality --- National Poverty --- National Poverty Line --- Poor --- Poverty Line --- Poverty Rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Smallholder Agriculture
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In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially.
Food commodities --- Food consumers --- Food Prices --- Impact on poverty --- Income --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Poor --- Poor countries --- Poor households --- Poor people --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction
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In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially.
Food commodities --- Food consumers --- Food Prices --- Impact on poverty --- Income --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Poor --- Poor countries --- Poor households --- Poor people --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction
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National poverty lines vary greatly across the world, from under USD 1 per person per day to over USD 40 (at 2005 purchasing power parity). What accounts for these huge differences, and can they be understood within a common global definition of poverty? For all except the poorest countries, the absolute, nutrition-based, poverty lines found in practice tend to behave more like relative lines, in that they are higher for richer countries. Prevailing methods of setting absolute lines allow ample scope for such relativity, even when nutritional norms are common across countries. Both macro data on poverty lines across the world and micro data on subjective perceptions of poverty are consistent with a weak form of relativity that combines absolute consumption needs with social-inclusion needs that are positive for the poorest but rise with a country's mean consumption. The strong form of relativism favored by some developed countries - whereby the line is set at a fixed proportion of the mean - emerges as the limiting case for very rich countries.
Absolute poverty --- Achieving Shared Growth --- Economic growth --- Household size --- Income --- Income distribution --- Income poverty --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- National poverty --- National poverty lines --- Nutrition --- Nutritional status --- Per capita consumption --- Poor --- Poverty Assessments --- Poverty comparisons --- Poverty line --- Poverty Lines --- Poverty measurement --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Targeting
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In the absence of household level data on participation in public programs, spending allocations and poverty measures across regions of Morocco are used to infer incidence across poor and non-poor groups and to decompose incidence within rural and urban areas separately, as well as to decompose improvements in enrollment rates across poor and non-poor children by gender. Programs appear to be well targeted to the rural poor but not to the urban poor. Substantial benefits accrue to the urban non-poor, while benefits largely bypass the urban poor. The analysis also uncovers evidence of impressive progress in primary and secondary school enrollments for the poor, as well as for poor girls since 1994. However, here too, the gains are concentrated on the rural poor. This paper-a product of the Public Services Team, Development Research Group-is part of a larger effort in the group to assess the incidence and targeting of public expenditures.
Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household Level Data --- Poor --- Poor Children --- Poor Girls --- Population Policies --- Poverty --- Poverty Incidence --- Poverty Incidence Across Regions --- Poverty Map --- Poverty Measures --- Poverty Programs --- Poverty Rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty Reduction Strategies --- Rural --- Rural Development --- Rural Infrastructure --- Rural Infrastructure Problem --- Rural Level --- Rural Poor --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Rural Roads --- Services and Transfers to Poor --- Social Programs --- Targeting --- Transfers
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As the financial crisis has spread through the world, the lack of real-time data has made it difficult to track its impact in developing countries. This paper uses a micro-simulation approach to assess the poverty and distributional effects of the crisis in the Philippines. The authors find increases in both the level and the depth of aggregate poverty. Income shocks are relatively large in the middle part of the income distribution. They also find that characteristics of people who become poor because of the crisis are different from those of both chronically poor people and the general population. The findings can be useful for policy makers wishing to identify leading monitoring indicators to track the impact of macroeconomic shocks and to design policies that protect vulnerable groups.
Achieving Shared Growth --- Chronically poor --- Distributional effects --- Economic growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Food price --- Impact on poverty --- Incidence of poverty --- Income --- Income distribution --- Income inequality --- Income poverty --- Inequality --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomic shocks --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor people --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural poverty --- Rural poverty rate --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Unemployment
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Measuring the poverty and distributional impact of the global crisis for developing countries is not easy, given the multiple channels of impact and the limited availability of real-time data. Commonly-used approaches are of limited use in addressing questions like who are being affected by the crisis and by how much, and who are vulnerable to falling into poverty if the crisis deepens? This paper develops a simple micro-simulation method, modifying models from existing economic literature, to measure the poverty and distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks by linking macro projections with pre-crisis household data. The approach is then applied to Bangladesh to assess the potential impact of the slowdown on poverty and income distribution across different groups and regions. A validation exercise using past data from Bangladesh finds that the model generates projections that compare well with actual estimates from household data. The results can inform the design of crisis monitoring tools and policies in Bangladesh, and also illustrate the kind of analysis that is possible in other developing countries with similar data availability.
Achieving Shared Growth --- Counterfactual --- Distributional effects --- Economic Theory & Research --- Employment status --- Global markets --- Household heads --- Household income --- Household survey --- Impact on poverty --- Income --- Income distribution --- Income poverty --- Inequality --- Macroeconomic shocks --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poor rural households --- Poverty line --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural areas --- Rural Poverty Reduction
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Alleviating poverty for the elderly requires a different approach from other age groups, and a minimum pension is likely to be the only viable option. This paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal cost of universal minimum old age pensions in 18 Latin American countries using recent household survey data. First the authors measure old age poverty rates for these countries. Then they discuss the design of minimum pensions schemes - means-tested or not - as well as the disincentives they introduce for the economic and social behavior of households including labor supply, saving and family solidarity. Finally, the authors use household survey data to simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty rates of alternative minimum pension schemes in the 18 countries. They show that a universal minimum pension would substantially reduce poverty among the elderly (except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimum pension systems already exist and poverty rates are low). Such schemes have much to be commended in terms of incentives, spillover effects and administrative simplicity, but they have a high fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age at which benefits are awarded, the prevailing longevity, the generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and the fiscal capacity of the country.
Debt Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Health --- Household survey --- Human Development --- Impact on Poverty --- Income --- Inequality --- Insurance --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Means testing --- Nutrition and Population --- Old Age --- Old age poverty --- Poor --- Poor areas --- Poor countries --- Population Policies --- Poverty gap --- Poverty line --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Price subsidies --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social assistance --- Social insurance programs
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The objective of the paper is to update the small area estimates of poverty and inequality for rural Vietnam. The new estimates of province and district level poverty for the year 2006, when combined with estimates available for 1999, allow for examination of how poverty has changed in rural Vietnam over the past seven years. The analysis finds that all provinces across the country experienced a noticeable reduction in rural poverty during the period 1999-2006. Some of the largest reductions in poverty are observed for provinces with poverty rates close to the national average. The poorest provinces have also experienced reductions in poverty, albeit at a more modest pace. Provinces and districts with lower levels of inequality in 2006 have seen above average poverty reductions. The authors consider both expenditure and income based measures of poverty and inequality, and find the results to be very similar.
Achieving Shared Growth --- Employment status --- Estimates of poverty --- Household survey --- Income --- Inequality --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poor --- Poverty estimates --- Poverty levels --- Poverty mapping --- Poverty maps --- Poverty measurement --- Poverty rates --- Poverty Reduction --- Poverty reduction programs --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural --- Rural areas --- Rural households --- Rural livelihoods --- Rural poverty --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Services & Transfers to Poor --- War
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