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Dissertation
Modéliser l'effet des vents sur les décomptes d'oiseaux de proie diurnes à l'automne à Tadoussac
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
Year: 2022 Publisher: Liège Université de Liège (ULiège)

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Abstract

Selon l'Initiative de conservation des oiseaux d'Amérique du Nord, l'état des populations de &#13;rapaces s'est amélioré au cours des dernières années. Cette conclusion est principalement &#13;basée sur des enquêtes visuelles effectuées pendant les saisons de nidification et de &#13;migration. Généralement, ces enquêtes supposent que le processus de détection des rapaces &#13;reste constant au cours des périodes utilisées pour le calcul des tendances démographiques. &#13;Cette hypothèse a rarement été vérifiée. &#13;L'Observatoire d'oiseaux de Tadoussac (OOT) est l'un des principaux sites de recensement des &#13;rapaces en Amérique du Nord. Les dénombrements de rapaces à l'OOT ont été suspectés &#13;d'être renforcés par les vents du nord-ouest, qui dévient probablement les routes de &#13;migration vers la côte de l'estuaire du Saint-Laurent et ainsi augmente la détection. Nous &#13;avons utilisé les données météorologiques de l'OOT et des stations locales de 1996 à 2021 &#13;pour vérifier si la composante nord-ouest des vents avait un impact sur les dénombrements&#13;de rapaces et, par conséquent, sur les estimations de leur tendance. Nous avons analysé 13 &#13;espèces de rapaces diurnes migrateurs. Tout d'abord, nous avons déterminé s'il y avait un &#13;changement dans les vents du nord-ouest au fil du temps. Ensuite, nous avons déterminé le &#13;pic d'abondance de chaque espèce de rapaces pendant l'automne afin d'analyser comment &#13;chaque espèce était affectée par les vents de nord-ouest. Enfin, nous avons utilisé des &#13;modèles linéaires généralisés avec une distribution binomiale négative pour modéliser les &#13;tendances de la population des espèces avec et sans le facteur vent afin d'étudier si le vent du &#13;nord-ouest avait un effet sur ces tendances.&#13;Les vents du nord-ouest ne montrent pas de tendance linéaire significative durant la période&#13;étudiée. L'Aigle royal, le Busard des marais, le Pygargue à tête blanche et l'Urubu à tête rouge &#13;ont connu des tendances de population à la hausse significatives, tandis que celle de la Buse &#13;pattue a diminué (p < 0,001). L'Autour des palombes, le Crécerelle d’Amérique, le Faucon &#13;pèlerin et la Petite Buse ne présentaient aucune tendance significative à Tadoussac.&#13;L'ajout des vents du nord-ouest aux modèles de tendances des espèces n'a affecté que l'Urubu &#13;à tête rouge (p < 0,05). Les tendances des autres espèces n'ont pas été affectées par la prise &#13;en compte des vents du nord-ouest.


Book
From Transition to Market : Evidence and Growth Prospects
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462302602 1452709912 1281601446 9786613782137 145189418X Year: 1998 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents evidence on the behavior of output and inflation in the transition economies during 1992–95. A regression analysis explores the differences in output performance across the transition economies during this period. The paper then engages in a numerical, somewhat speculative, exercise to assess the long-run growth potential of the transition economies. It concludes that it should take about 20 years for the faster reformers to reach current OECD per capita levels.


Book
Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462353967 1452751242 1282107593 9786613800947 145189886X Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper reexamines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1–3 percent for industrial countries and 7–11 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications.


Book
The Impact of U.S. Economic Growthon the Rest of the World : How Much Does it Matter?
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462344879 1452767386 1282101382 1451899599 9786613799470 Year: 2001 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper provides a quantitative assessment of the impact of economic growth in the United States on growth in other countries. Using panel data estimation, the paper finds a significant positive impact of U.S. growth on growth in the rest of the world, especially developing countries, during the past few decades. The evidence suggests that the impact of U.S. growth on other countries can be explained by the significance of the United States as a global trading partner. The paper provides estimates of the direct impact of trade with the United States on growth in several individual countries.


Book
Regional Trade Agreements Versus Broad Liberalization : Which Path Leads to Faster Growth? Time-Series Evidence
Author:
ISBN: 1462327850 1452717990 1281608270 1451893221 9786613788764 Year: 1998 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Should a closed economy open its trade to all countries or limit itself to participation in regional trade agreements (RTAs)? Based on time-series evidence for a data set for 1950-92, this paper estimates and compares the growth performance of countries that liberalized broadly and those that joined an RTA. The comparisons show that economies grew faster after broad liberalization, both in the short and long run, but slower after participation in an RTA. Economies also had higher investment shares after broad liberalization, but lower ones after joining an RTA. The policy implications support broad liberalization.


Book
How Far Is Eastern Europe from Brussels?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462346995 1451998570 1281602574 1451894260 9786613783264 Year: 1998 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The current destination of Central and Eastern European countries—explicitly for some, implicitly for all—is Brussels. The concept of the distance from Brussels is multi-dimensional. One simple measure, not without theoretical and empirical justification, is physical distance. This paper’s focus, however, lies more in the distances in time and economic space. The paper first compares income gaps between Central and Eastern European and European Union (EU) countries, then evaluates recent economic performance in Central and Eastern Europe in light of EU standards. Finally; addresses the question of how long it will take the Central and Eastern European countries to close the income gap with EU countries.


Book
Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth : A Panel Data Approach
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462341861 1455244473 Year: 1992 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Several recent empirical studies have examined determinants of economic growth using country average (cross-section) data. In contrast, this paper employs a technique for using a panel of both cross-section and time-series data for 98 industrial and developing countries over 1960-85 to determine the quantitative importance for economic growth of both country-specific and time-varying factors such as human capital, public investment, and outward-oriented trade policies. The empirical results provide support for the view that these factors exert a positive and significant influence on economic growth. They also provide estimates of the speed at which the gap in real per capita income between rich and poor countries is likely to be reduced over the longer term.


Book
Growth Determinants Revisited
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462346677 1452744009 1283512408 1451918291 9786613824851 Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper revisits the cross-country growth empirics debate using a novel Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging framework to address model uncertainty in the context of a dynamic growth model in panel data with endogenous regressors. Our empirical findings suggest that once model uncertainty is accounted for there is strong evidence that initial income, investment, life expectancy, and population growth are robustly correlated with economic growth. We also find evidence that debt, openness, and inflation are robust growth determinants. Overall, the set of our robust growth determinants differs from those identified by other studies that incorporate model uncertainty, but ignore dynamics and/or endogeneity. This underscores the importance of accounting for model uncertainty and endogeneity in the investigation of growth determinants.


Book
Israel : Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462361501 1452735514 1280892757 1452725616 9786613734068 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper suggests that several factors, besides tight monetary policy, may well have contributed to the high real interest rates that have been observed in Israel. The paper examines the impact of unanticipated changes in nominal interest rate monetary policy shocks on a number of variables in Israel. The paper provides evidence that the inflation expectation measure derived from the capital markets tends to overstate the trend in actual inflation. The paper also provides statistical data on the economic indices of Israel.


Book
Sub-Saharan African Migration : Patterns and Spillovers
Authors: --- --- --- ---
ISBN: 1475558821 1475550715 Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the region, as this has greater global spillovers. It finds that the economic impact of migration for the region occurs mainly through two channels. First, the migration of young and educated workers—brain drain—takes a toll as human capital is already scarce in the region, although some recent studies suggest that migration may have also a positive effect—brain gain. Second, remittances represent an important source of foreign exchange and income in a number of sub-Saharan African countries, contribute to the alleviation of poverty, and help smooth business cycles.

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