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Does Debt Relief Improve Child Health? Evidence from Cross-Country Micro Data
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper analyzes the effects of a multilateral debt relief program on child health. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank launched the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative in the late 1990s to reduce the debt burdens of poor countries, and explicitly linked the initiative to the aim of poverty reduction and social targets. As a result, debt-servicing costs have gone down by an average 1.8 percentage points of gross domestic product in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries. However, the social effects of debt relief are not well known. The paper employs micro data on infant mortality from 56 country-specific Demographic and Health Surveys to investigate the effects of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative on child health. The retrospective fertility structure of the data allows for analysis using the within-mother variation in the probability of survival of babies before and after different stages of the initiative. The results suggest that after a debt-ridden country enters the program, which is conditional on reform and pro-development policies, and receives interim debt relief, the probability of infant mortality goes down by about 0.5 percentage point. This translates into about 3,000 fewer infant deaths in an average Heavily Indebted Poor Country. The findings are particularly strong for infants born to poor mothers and mothers living in rural areas, and are driven by access to vaccines early in life and during pregnancy. There are no child health effects from graduating from the program and receiving full debt relief.


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Dollar A Day Revisited
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Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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The paper presents the first major update of the international "USD 1 a day" poverty line, first proposed in 1990 for measuring absolute poverty by the standards of the world's poorest countries. In a new data set of national poverty lines we find that a marked economic gradient only emerges when consumption per person is above about USD 2.00 a day at 2005 purchasing power parity. Below this, the average poverty line is USD 1.25, which we propose as the new international poverty line. Relative poverty appears to matter more to developing countries than has been thought. Our proposed schedule of relative poverty lines is bounded below by USD 1.25, and rises at a gradient of USD 1 in USD 3 when mean consumption is above USD 2.00 a day.


Book
Dollar A Day Revisited
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

The paper presents the first major update of the international "USD 1 a day" poverty line, first proposed in 1990 for measuring absolute poverty by the standards of the world's poorest countries. In a new data set of national poverty lines we find that a marked economic gradient only emerges when consumption per person is above about USD 2.00 a day at 2005 purchasing power parity. Below this, the average poverty line is USD 1.25, which we propose as the new international poverty line. Relative poverty appears to matter more to developing countries than has been thought. Our proposed schedule of relative poverty lines is bounded below by USD 1.25, and rises at a gradient of USD 1 in USD 3 when mean consumption is above USD 2.00 a day.


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Implications of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low-Income Countries
Authors: ---
Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially.


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Implications of Higher Global Food Prices for Poverty in Low-Income Countries
Authors: ---
Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

In many poor countries, the recent increases in prices of staple foods raise the real incomes of those selling food, many of whom are relatively poor, while hurting net food consumers, many of whom are also relatively poor. The impacts on poverty will certainly be very diverse, but the average impact on poverty depends upon the balance between these two effects, and can only be determined by looking at real-world data. Results using household data for ten observations on nine low-income countries show that the short-run impacts of higher staple food prices on poverty differ considerably by commodity and by country, but, that poverty increases are much more frequent, and larger, than poverty reductions. The recent large increases in food prices appear likely to raise overall poverty in low income countries substantially.


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The Composition of Growth Matters For Poverty Alleviation
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Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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This paper contributes to explain the cross-country heterogeneity of the poverty response to changes in economic growth. It does so by focusing on the structure of output growth. The paper presents a two-sector theoretical model that clarifies the mechanism through which the sectoral composition of growth and associated labor intensity can affect workers' wages and, thus, poverty alleviation. Then it presents cross-country empirical evidence that analyzes first, the differential poverty-reducing impact of sectoral growth at various levels of disaggregation, and the role of unskilled labor intensity in such differential impact. The paper finds evidence that not only the size of economic growth but also its composition matters for poverty alleviation, with the largest contributions from labor-intensive sectors (such as agriculture, construction, and manufacturing). The results are robust to the influence of outliers, alternative explanations, and various poverty measures.


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Universal Minimum Old Age Pensions : Impact On Poverty and Fiscal Cost in 18 Latin American Countries
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Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Alleviating poverty for the elderly requires a different approach from other age groups, and a minimum pension is likely to be the only viable option. This paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal cost of universal minimum old age pensions in 18 Latin American countries using recent household survey data. First the authors measure old age poverty rates for these countries. Then they discuss the design of minimum pensions schemes - means-tested or not - as well as the disincentives they introduce for the economic and social behavior of households including labor supply, saving and family solidarity. Finally, the authors use household survey data to simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty rates of alternative minimum pension schemes in the 18 countries. They show that a universal minimum pension would substantially reduce poverty among the elderly (except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimum pension systems already exist and poverty rates are low). Such schemes have much to be commended in terms of incentives, spillover effects and administrative simplicity, but they have a high fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age at which benefits are awarded, the prevailing longevity, the generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and the fiscal capacity of the country.


Book
The Composition of Growth Matters For Poverty Alleviation
Authors: ---
Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

This paper contributes to explain the cross-country heterogeneity of the poverty response to changes in economic growth. It does so by focusing on the structure of output growth. The paper presents a two-sector theoretical model that clarifies the mechanism through which the sectoral composition of growth and associated labor intensity can affect workers' wages and, thus, poverty alleviation. Then it presents cross-country empirical evidence that analyzes first, the differential poverty-reducing impact of sectoral growth at various levels of disaggregation, and the role of unskilled labor intensity in such differential impact. The paper finds evidence that not only the size of economic growth but also its composition matters for poverty alleviation, with the largest contributions from labor-intensive sectors (such as agriculture, construction, and manufacturing). The results are robust to the influence of outliers, alternative explanations, and various poverty measures.


Book
Universal Minimum Old Age Pensions : Impact On Poverty and Fiscal Cost in 18 Latin American Countries
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

Alleviating poverty for the elderly requires a different approach from other age groups, and a minimum pension is likely to be the only viable option. This paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal cost of universal minimum old age pensions in 18 Latin American countries using recent household survey data. First the authors measure old age poverty rates for these countries. Then they discuss the design of minimum pensions schemes - means-tested or not - as well as the disincentives they introduce for the economic and social behavior of households including labor supply, saving and family solidarity. Finally, the authors use household survey data to simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty rates of alternative minimum pension schemes in the 18 countries. They show that a universal minimum pension would substantially reduce poverty among the elderly (except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimum pension systems already exist and poverty rates are low). Such schemes have much to be commended in terms of incentives, spillover effects and administrative simplicity, but they have a high fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age at which benefits are awarded, the prevailing longevity, the generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and the fiscal capacity of the country.


Book
Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence?
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Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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We are not seeing faster progress against poverty amongst the poorest developing countries. Yet this is implied by widely accepted "stylized facts" about the development process. The paper tries to explain what is missing from those stylized facts. Consistently with models of economic growth incorporating borrowing constraints, the analysis of a new data set for 100 developing countries reveals an adverse effect on consumption growth of high initial poverty incidence at a given initial mean. A high incidence of poverty also entails a lower subsequent rate of progress against poverty at any given growth rate (and poor countries tend to experience less steep increases in poverty during recessions). Thus, for many poor countries, the growth advantage of starting out with a low mean ("conditional convergence") is lost due to their high poverty rates. The size of the middle class - measured by developing-country, not Western, standards - appears to be an important channel linking current poverty to subsequent growth and poverty reduction. However, high current inequality is only a handicap if it entails a high incidence of poverty relative to mean consumption.

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