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Between 1999 and 2008, world oil prices more than quadrupled in real terms. For oil importers, vulnerability to oil price increases, defined as the share of gross domestic product spent on net oil imports, rose considerably. Considering medians, low-income countries had the highest vulnerability in 2008 and the highest increase in vulnerability between 1999 and 2008. When changes in vulnerability were decomposed into several contributing factors, more than two-thirds of 170 countries studied were found to have offset the increase in the value of oil consumption by reducing the oil intensity of gross domestic product. Oil intensity fell in more than half the countries in every income group and in every region of the world, driven by falling energy intensity and, to a lesser extent, the oil share of energy. This study also examines the degree of pass-through to consumers of increases in world prices of gasoline, diesel, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas between January 2009 and January 2012, when oil prices in nominal U.S. dollars more than doubled. Retail fuel prices varied by two orders of magnitude in 2012, and oil-exporting countries were far less likely to pass on price increases. Gasoline had the highest pass-through, followed by diesel, liquefied petroleum gas, and kerosene. The median pass-through increased with income for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene, but was highest in low-income countries for liquefied petroleum gas. Despite divergent pricing policies, the pass-through coefficients of different fuels were strongly positively correlated, suggesting that the degrees to which domestic prices tracked world prices were comparable for the four fuels in many countries.
Decomposition analysis --- Diesel --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy intensity --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Environment and Energy Efficiency --- Gasoline --- Kerosene --- Liquefied petroleum gas --- Markets and Market Access --- Oil imports --- Oil intensity --- Oil pricing policy --- Oil Refining & Gas Industry --- Pass-through --- Vulnerability
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Unable to cope fully with steadily climbing world oil prices since mid-2009, many of the 65 countries reviewed in this paper have progressed slowly or even reversed course in reforming pricing of petroleum products. End-user prices in July 2012 varied by two orders of magnitude across the countries. More than two-fifths, including some that had only recently adopted automatic pricing mechanisms, froze the prices of gasoline, diesel, or both for months or even years on end during the study period. When the prices were finally adjusted, the increases were sometimes substantial, leading to large-scale protests, partial or full reversals of price adjustments, or softening of pricing reform policy. Governments' attempts to keep domestic prices artificially low-through price control, export or quantity restrictions, or political pressure put on oil companies-have helped curb inflation in the short term, but frequently with serious negative consequences: flourishing black markets, smuggling, fuel adulteration, illegal diversion of subsidy funds, large financial losses suffered by fuel suppliers, deteriorating refining and other infrastructure, and acute fuel shortages causing economy-wide damage. In several countries, subsidies, price controls, and other restrictions have helped protect inefficient refineries and oil marketers. Mitigation responses have included fuel conservation programs; fuel diversification, particularly liquid biofuels to substitute gasoline and diesel; and efforts to lower costs of supply, including strengthening infrastructure, promoting price competition, hedging, negotiating price discounts with exporters, and bulk procurement. Various forms of assistance to consumers have also been offered, especially to households, agriculture, transport, and fisheries.
Access to Markets --- Biodiesel --- Biofuel --- Conservation --- Diesel --- Diversification --- Energy --- Energy efficiency --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Ethanol --- Gasoline --- Kerosene --- Liquefied petroleum gas --- Markets and Market Access --- Oil pricing policy --- Oil Refining & Gas Industry --- Renewable energy --- Social protection --- Subsidies --- Transport Economics Policy & Planning
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