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What is the extent of currency diversification in the international monetary system? How has it evolved over time? In this paper, we quantify the degree of currency diversification using regression methods of currency co-movements to determine the extent to which national currencies across the world belong to a reserve currency bloc. We then use these estimates to calculate the economic size of each currency bloc. A key contribution of our paper is that we quantify the size of the Chinese renminbi bloc. Our analysis suggests that the international monetary system has transitioned from a bi-polar system - consisting of the U.S. dollar and the euro - to a tri-polar one that includes the renminbi. The dollar bloc is estimated to continue to dominate, having the largest share in global GDP (40 percent), followed by the renminbi (30 percent) and the euro blocs (20 percent). The geographical area of influence for the RMB bloc appears to be most evident among the BRICS’ currencies. The British pound and the Japanese yen blocs appear to play minor roles.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Economic Integration --- Foreign Exchange --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Financial Crises --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Monetary unions --- Reserve currencies --- Currencies --- International monetary system --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Economic integration --- Money --- Numéraire --- International finance --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- United States
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There are, by now, several long term, time series data sets on important housing & macro variables, such as land prices, house prices, and the housing wealth-to-income ratio. However, an appropriate theory that can be employed to think about such data and associated research questions has been lacking. We present a new housing & macro model that is designed specifically to analyze the long term. As an illustrative application, we demonstrate that the calibrated model replicates, with remarkable accuracy, the historical evolution of housing wealth (relative to income) after World War II and suggests a further considerable increase in the future. The model also accounts for the close connection of house prices to land prices in the data. We also compare our framework to the canonical housing & macro model, typically employed to analyze business cycles, and highlight the main differences.
Housing. --- Affordable housing --- Homes --- Houses --- Housing --- Housing needs --- Residences --- Slum clearance --- Urban housing --- City planning --- Dwellings --- Human settlements --- Social aspects --- Infrastructure --- Investments: Stocks --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Macroeconomics --- Property & real estate --- Investment & securities --- Monetary economics --- Housing prices --- Land prices --- Stocks --- Numéraire --- National accounts --- Prices --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Saving and investment --- United States
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