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Is Military Spending Converging Across Countries? An Examination of Trends and Key Determinants
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ISBN: 1513515519 151350987X 1513515497 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper studies the evolution of worldwide military spending during 1970-2018. It finds that military spending in relation to GDP is converging, but into three separate groups of countries. In the largest group, responsible for 90 percent of worldwide spending, outlays have remained stubbornly high. Military spending in developing economies reacts to improvements in security conditions and military spending in neighboring countries, suggesting that further increases in the peace dividend are possible. In developing economies, rising social spending tends to crowd out military outlays, but this is not the case in advanced economies. With social outlays projected to rise as developing countries look to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), military spending could come under pressure to fall further.


Book
Corruption and Military Spending.
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ISBN: 1462328881 1451988508 1281604887 9786613785572 145189189X Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Anecdotal evidence relates corruption with high levels of military spending. This paper tests empirically whether such a relationship exists. The empirical analysis is based on data from four different sources for up to 120 countries in the period 1985–98. The association between military spending and corruption is ascertained by using panel regression techniques. The results suggest that corruption is indeed associated with higher military spending as a share of both GDP and total government spending, as well as with arms procurement in relation to GDP and total government spending. This evidence indicates that defense spending can be considered for constructing governance indicators.


Book
Military Expenditure : Econometric Testing of Economic and Political Influences
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ISBN: 1462317731 1455223247 1281600091 1455212032 9786613780782 Year: 1991 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Econometric results from an analysis of the determinants of military expenditure in 125 countries during 1972-88 are presented. The dependent variable is the ratio of military expenditure to GDP; included among the explanatory variables are economic and financial indicators, political variables summarizing the form of government, and demographic and geographic features of nations. The results strongly confirm the importance of these variables in explaining cross-country differences in levels of military expenditure.


Book
Economic Consequences of Lower Military Spending : Some Simulation Results
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ISBN: 1462362192 1455225231 1281088919 1455292729 9786613774378 Year: 1993 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The IMF MULTIMOD model is used to trace the economic impact of a 20 percent reduction in world military expenditures. GDP falls in the short run, however private consumption and investment rise, leading to an increase in GDP in the medium and long run. The estimated gains to economic welfare are substantial, particularly for developing countries, although most of these gains are realized in the long run. A positive international economic externality is found to exist, implying that for any given country the economic gains from a coordinated reduction in military expenditures exceed the gains from a unilateral reduction.


Book
Military Expenditure and Arms Trade : Alternative Data Sources
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ISBN: 1462310648 1455221244 Year: 1994 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Analysis of the economic impact of military expenditures and arms trade is frequently hampered by the limited amount of transparent, comprehensive data. Country-specific information can be supplemented, however, by data from multicountry statistical sources. This paper describes seven publications which provide multicountry statistics on military expenditure and trade--the information each source conveys, as well as the differences in coverage and definition--to assist the analyst in understanding how to use this data. Comparisons of the data reported by the various sources reveal numerous, significant differences, particularly in data on military expenditures.


Book
Military Expenditures 1972-1990 : The Reasons Behind the Post-1985 Fall in World Military Spending
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ISBN: 1462352103 1455235326 1281089605 9786613774965 1455251356 Year: 1993 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

World military expenditures have fallen by over 20 percent in proportion to GDP from 1985 to 1990. This study examines the determinants of military expenditures in 125 countries during 1972-90 to ascertain what factors may be behind the recent decreases. Economic decline among developing countries in the 1980s and among industrial countries in the later part of the decade emerges as one possible factor. A second is the move towards more democratic regimes, which could diminish support for the military. A third factor is the improved world security situation and the concomitant decrease in military aid by the former major cold war combatants.


Book
Worldwide Military Spending, 1990-1995
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462324789 1455200042 1281600288 1455242314 9786613780973 Year: 1996 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The decline in military spending that began in the mid-1980s continued through 1995, and this decline was widespread both geographically and by level of development. Cuts in military spending appear to have potentially important implications for nonmilitary spending and fiscal adjustment. In contrast to findings for previous periods, military spending has declined more than proportionately in those countries that have reduced total spending. Countries with Fund programs have reduced military spending more sharply than other developing countries, largely reflecting outcomes in the transition economies. Further, military spending appears to have been less resilient in program countries than other developing countries.


Book
The Impact of Worldwide Military Spending Cutson Developing Countries
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462396380 145526766X 1281600237 1455258474 9786613780928 Year: 1993 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper investigates the economic impact of a coordinated reduction in military expenditures of 20 percent using a specially modified version of the MULTIMOD world economic model. Simulation results indicate that in developing countries the present value of consumption increases by 46 percent of 1992 GDP, compared to military expenditures cuts, in present value terms, of 33 percent of 1992 GDP. The gains reflect both the release of domestic resources and a positive international economic externality due to enhanced trade and lower world interest rates. Accordingly, the net debtor developing country gains exceed those of industrial countries. Examination of individual developing country economies confirms the significance of the external trade effect on the pattern and level of gains.


Book
The Peace Dividend : Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462331866 1455260576 1281602302 9786613782991 1455251380 Year: 1995 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Although conventional wisdom suggests that reducing military spending may improve a country’s economic growth performance, empirical studies have produced ambiguous results. This paper extends a standard growth model and estimates it using techniques that exploit both cross-section and time-series dimensions of available data to obtain consistent estimates of the growth-retarding effects of military spending via its adverse impact on capital formation and resource allocation. Model simulations suggest that a substantial long-run “Peace Dividend”--in the form of higher capacity output--may result from: (i) markedly lower military expenditure levels achieved in most regions during the late 1980s; and (ii) further military spending cuts that would be possible in the future if a global peace could be secured.


Book
Social Fractionalization, Political Instability, and the Size of Government
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ISBN: 1462349978 1452758328 128160190X 145189662X 9786613782595 Year: 2000 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between the degree of division or fractionalization of a country’s population (along ethnolinguistic and religious dimensions) and both political instability and government consumption, using a neoclassical growth model. The principal idea is that greater fractionalization, proxying for the degree of conflict in society, leads to political instability, which in turn leads to higher government consumption aimed at placating the opposition. There is also a feedback mechanism whereby the higher consumption leads to less instability as government consumption reduces the risk of losing office. Empirical evidence based on panel estimation supports this hypothesis.

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