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Central banks around the world, in their efforts to smoothen the economy through the business cycle, have devised for themselves a set of policies which they can turn to, when they need to react to the swings of the economy. Traditionally, those tools have been setting the interest rate, undertaking open market operations, and applying reserve requirements for banks. In the years that have followed the Financial Crisis of 2009, new approaches have been tried by monetary authorities to enhance the effectiveness of their policies. One of these new methods has been the expanded use of communications and media appearances by monetary officials, trying to made their objectives clearer for market participants and the general population. With a focus on the Federal Reserve System, this thesis examines, through the framework of Narrative Economics and Information Theory and by using newly developed tools such as Natural Language Understanding, the effectiveness that the Fed’s communication strategy has rendered them in their pursuit of price stability and the implications this new approach has carried for financial markets liquidity and investors.
Central banking --- Monetary policy --- Narrative Economics --- Natural Language Processing --- Financial markets --- Information theory --- Sciences économiques & de gestion > Finance
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Financial market bubbles are recurring, often painful, reminders of the costs and benefits of capitalism. While many books have studied financial manias and crises, most fail to compare times of turmoil with times of stability. In Bubbles and Crashes, Brent Goldfarb and David A. Kirsch give us new insights into the causes of speculative booms and busts. They identify a class of assets—major technological innovations—that can, but does not necessarily, produce bubbles. This methodological twist is essential: Only by comparing similar events that sometimes lead to booms and busts can we ascertain the root causes of bubbles. Using a sample of eighty-eight technologies spanning 150 years, Goldfarb and Kirsch find that four factors play a key role in these episodes: the degree of uncertainty surrounding a particular innovation, the attentive presence of novice investors, the opportunity to directly invest in companies that specialize in the technology, and whether or not a technology is a good protagonist in a narrative. Goldfarb and Kirsch consider the implications of their analysis for technology bubbles that may be in the works today, offer tools for investors to identify whether a bubble is happening, and propose policy measures that may mitigate the risks associated with future speculative episodes.
Technological innovations --- Economic aspects. --- Business cycles --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic aspects --- E-books --- Boom and Busts. --- Bubbles. --- Entrepreneurial Finance. --- Entrepreneurship. --- IPOs. --- Market Speculation. --- Narrative Economics. --- Narratives. --- Technology and Markets. --- Venture Capital.
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