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"Invisible in the Storm is the first book to recount the history, personalities, and ideas behind one of the greatest scientific successes of modern times--the use of mathematics in weather prediction. Although humans have tried to forecast weather for millennia, mathematical principles were used in meteorology only after the turn of the twentieth century. From the first proposal for using mathematics to predict weather, to the supercomputers that now process meteorological information gathered from satellites and weather stations, Ian Roulstone and John Norbury narrate the groundbreaking evolution of modern forecasting. The authors begin with Vilhelm Bjerknes, a Norwegian physicist and meteorologist who in 1904 came up with a method now known as numerical weather prediction. Although his proposed calculations could not be implemented without computers, his early attempts, along with those of Lewis Fry Richardson, marked a turning point in atmospheric science. Roulstone and Norbury describe the discovery of chaos theory's butterfly effect, in which tiny variations in initial conditions produce large variations in the long-term behavior of a system--dashing the hopes of perfect predictability for weather patterns. They explore how weather forecasters today formulate their ideas through state-of-the-art mathematics, taking into account limitations to predictability. Millions of variables--known, unknown, and approximate--as well as billions of calculations, are involved in every forecast, producing informative and fascinating modern computer simulations of the Earth system. Accessible and timely, Invisible in the Storm explains the crucial role of mathematics in understanding the ever-changing weather"--
MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy. --- MATHEMATICS / Calculus. --- MATHEMATICS / Differential Equations. --- NATURE / Weather. --- MATHEMATICS / Applied. --- SCIENCE / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology. --- Climatology --- Meteorology --- Climate --- Climate science --- Climate sciences --- Science of climate --- Atmospheric science --- Mathematical models. --- Data processing.
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The twelfth and thirteenth centuries in the Levant saw a substantial rise in the number of droughts. This coincided with some of the most violent tectonic activity the region had witnessed. Nature, however, could conjure other powerful disasters: swarms of locusts, armies of mice, scorching winds and thick dust storms. The data for this research is drawn from contemporary Arabic and Latin sources. The main aim is to try and determine the long and short-term repercussions of environmental disasters on the political, military and social affairs in the Levant during the Crusader, Ayyubid and Mamluk periods. Did environmental disasters spur or hinder conflict? This research examines the most destructive disasters and gradual climate changes within a broader historical context.
Climatic changes --- NATURE / Weather --- SCIENCE / Earth Sciences / Meteorology & Climatology --- Nature --- Paleoclimatology --- Geologic climate --- Palaeoclimatology --- Paleoclimate --- Climatology --- Changes, Climatic --- Changes in climate --- Climate change --- Climate change science --- Climate changes --- Climate variations --- Climatic change --- Climatic fluctuations --- Climatic variations --- Global climate changes --- Global climatic changes --- Climate change mitigation --- Teleconnections (Climatology) --- History --- Effect of human beings on --- History. --- Environmental aspects --- Middle East --- Asia, South West --- Asia, Southwest --- Asia, West --- Asia, Western --- East (Middle East) --- Eastern Mediterranean --- Fertile Crescent --- Levant --- Mediterranean Region, Eastern --- Mideast --- Near East --- Northern Tier (Middle East) --- South West Asia --- Southwest Asia --- West Asia --- Western Asia --- Orient --- Climate --- Climate and civilization --- Civilization and climate --- Civilization --- Social aspects --- Global environmental change
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A top priority in climate research is obtaining broad-extent and long-term data to support analyses of historical patterns and trends, and for model development and evaluation. Along with directly measured climate data from the present and recent past, it is important to obtain estimates of long past climate variations spanning multiple centuries and millennia. These longer time perspectives are needed for assessing the unusualness of recent climate changes, as well as for providing insight on the range, variation and overall dynamics of the climate system over time spans exceeding available records from instruments, such as rain gauges and thermometers. Tree rings have become increasingly valuable in providing this long-term information because extensive data networks have been developed in temperate and boreal zones of the Earth, and quantitative methods for analyzing these data have advanced. Tree rings are among the most useful paleoclimate information sources available because they provide a high degree of chronological accuracy, high replication, and extensive spatial coverage spanning recent centuries. With the expansion and extension of tree-ring data and analytical capacity new climatic insights from tree rings are being used in a variety of applications, including for interpretation of past changes in ecosystems and human societies. This volume presents an overview of the current state of dendroclimatology, its contributions over the last 30 years, and its future potential. The material included is useful not only to those who generate tree-ring records of past climate-dendroclimatologists, but also to users of their results-climatologists, hydrologists, ecologists and archeologists. ‘With the pressing climatic questions of the 21st century demanding a deeper understanding of the climate system and our impact upon it, this thoughtful volume comes at critical moment. It will be of fundamental importance in not only guiding researchers, but in educating scientists and the interested lay person on the both incredible power and potential pitfalls of reconstructing climate using tree-ring analysis.’, Glen M. MacDonald, UCLA Institute of the Environment, CA, USA ‘This is an up-to-date treatment of all branches of tree-ring science, by the world’s experts in the field, reminding us that tree rings are the most important source of proxy data on climate change. Should be read by all budding dendrochronology scientists.’, Alan Robock, Rutgers University, NJ, USA .
Climatic changes -- Measurement. --- Dendroclimatology. --- Nature -- Weather. --- Dendroclimatology --- Climatic changes --- Earth & Environmental Sciences --- Meteorology & Climatology --- Measurement --- Paleoclimatology --- Research. --- Geologic climate --- Palaeoclimatology --- Paleoclimate --- Environment. --- Climatology. --- Earth sciences. --- Paleontology. --- Trees. --- Climate change. --- Archaeology. --- Climate Change. --- Tree Biology. --- Earth Sciences, general. --- Climatology --- Climatic changes. --- Paleontology . --- Geography. --- Cosmography --- Earth sciences --- World history --- Archeology --- Anthropology --- Auxiliary sciences of history --- History --- Antiquities --- Fossilogy --- Fossilology --- Palaeontology --- Paleontology, Zoological --- Paleozoology --- Historical geology --- Zoology --- Fossils --- Prehistoric animals in motion pictures --- Dendrology --- Nursery stock --- Woody plants --- Arboriculture --- Forests and forestry --- Timber --- Changes, Climatic --- Changes in climate --- Climate change --- Climate change science --- Climate changes --- Climate variations --- Climatic change --- Climatic fluctuations --- Climatic variations --- Global climate changes --- Global climatic changes --- Climate change mitigation --- Teleconnections (Climatology) --- Environmental aspects --- Geosciences --- Environmental sciences --- Physical sciences --- Climate --- Climate science --- Climate sciences --- Science of climate --- Atmospheric science --- Global environmental change
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