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Fiscal policy --- Monetary policy --- Fiscal policy - United States --- Monetary policy - United States
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This paper argues that major oil price increases were not nearly as essential a part of the causal mechanism that generated the stagflation of the 1970s as is often thought. There is neither a theoretical presumption that oil supply shocks are stagflationary nor robust empirical evidence for this view. In contrast, we show that monetary expansions and contractions can generate stagflation of realistic magnitude even in the absence of supply shocks. Furthermore, monetary fluctuations help to explain the historical movements of the prices of oil and other commodities, including the surge in the prices of industrial commodities that preceded the 1973/74 oil price increase. Thus, they can account for the striking coincidence of major oil price increases and worsening stagflation.
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"From the three primary architects of the American policy response to the worst economic catastrophe since the Great Depression, a magnificent big-picture synthesis--from why it happened to where we are now In 2018, Ben Bernanke, Tim Geithner, and Hank Paulson came together to reflect on the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis ten years on. Recognizing that, as Ben put it, "the enemy is forgetting," they examine the causes of the crisis, why it was so damaging, and what it ultimately took to prevent a second Great Depression. And they provide to their successors in the United States and the finance ministers and central bank governors of other countries a valuable playbook for reducing the damage from future financial crises. Firefighting provides a candid and powerful account of the choices they and their teams made during the crisis, working under two presidents and with the leaders of Congress"-- "From the three primary architects of the American policy response to the economic crisis of 2008, this big-picture synthesis of why it happened, how it was combatted, what was learned, and where we are now is a short primer on leadership through crisis. It includes an 85 page Appendix of charts and graphs that depict visually the crisis and the results of actions taken to mitigate it"--
Monetary policy--United States. --- Monetary policy --- Banks and banking --- Government policy
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We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a production function approach) and accounts for unconventional monetary policies at the ZLB by using estimates of "shadow" policy rates. We find that our approach provides more plausible results than standard maximum likelihood estimates for the unobserved variables in the model. Results show a significant trend decline in the neutral real rate over time, driven only in part by a decline in potential growth where
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With the inflation rate in the United States and many other countries on the rise for over a year and nearing double digits, the Hoover Institution hosted its 2022 conference on monetary policy. Policy makers, market participants, and academic researchers gathered to discuss the situation. Many agreed that low interest rates and high money growth were inappropriate given the high inflation rate and evidence that the United States has recovered from the deep recession induced by the pandemic and its policy response in 2020. The thoughtful papers and the thorough discussions in this volume of conference proceedings illustrate the debate about the reasons for this mismatch, as well as how to get back on track. They reflect a range of opinions and perspectives, including examination of the fiscal shock resulting from the COVID pandemic and the related borrowing and spending; emphasis on the value of adherence to rules versus discretion in setting Fed policy; lessons from history in the spikes in federal expenditures during times of war (including the pandemic) and in the timing of the Feds use of its policy instruments; the role of central banks in the emerging inflation crisis; and s
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Money. Monetary policy --- Europe --- United States --- Monetary policy - United States --- Monetary policy --- Monetary policy - Europe --- United States of America
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