Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian parameters and filtering volatilities. Volatility persistence being close to one was consistent with both volatility clustering and mean reversion. Filtering showed highly volatile markets, reflecting frequent pertinent news. Diagnostics showed no model failure, although specification improvements were always possible. The model corroborated stylized findings in volatility modeling and has potential value for market participants in asset pricing and risk management, as well as for policymakers in the design of macroeconomic policies conducive to less volatile financial markets.

Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Finance --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Bayesian inference --- Banking --- Asset prices --- Stock markets --- Vector autoregression --- Bayesian models --- Monetary operations --- Prices --- Stock exchanges --- Econometric models

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Achieving the primary objective of price stability without unduly compromising the operational efficiency of the payment system constitutes a major problem for central banks. Routine monetary policy presumes a given institutional and technological framework, including aspects of the payment system. Such a monetary policy concerns itself with intraday and interday credit for payments settlements and with float. Liquidity shocks and panics sometimes pose an additional challenge. In recent years, major and rapid institutional and technological changes in the payment system (mainly to lower risks and augment operational efficiency) have affected the monetary policy decision-making process, particularly in the short run.

Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Money Supply --- Credit --- Money Multipliers --- Monetary Policy --- Finance --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- Payment systems --- Central bank credit --- Monetary operations --- Financial markets --- Money --- Central banks --- Large value payment systems --- Clearinghouses --- Banks and banking --- Japan

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that Myanmar’s economy is expected to gain steam albeit at a somewhat slower pace than previously envisaged but faces greater downside risks including from the crisis in Rakhine state. The country’s long-term prospects remain strong, supported by a growing demographic dividend, a competitive labor force and its strategic location. The discussions recommend that successful implementation of the second wave of reforms in the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan with a focus on peace, stability and good governance will help sustain the growth take-off and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Financial regulations and supervision should be strengthened with a view to ensuring financial stability and deepening, while forming contingency plans to address systemic banking risks, and strengthening the resolution framework. Fiscal policy should be directed towards SDG-related spending, while lowering Central Bank of Myanmar financing and ensuring debt sustainability. The business environment is expected to benefit from upgraded infrastructure, access to finance, and strengthening of the overall governance framework.

Financial management. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Banking --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Macroeconomics --- External debt --- Public debt --- External sector statistics --- Monetary operations --- Economic and financial statistics --- Revenue administration --- Central banks --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Banks and banking --- Economic statistics --- Fiscal policy --- Revenue --- Myanmar

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This Selected Issues paper examines how and why Hungary reached historically high inflation. Particular attention is placed on cross-country comparisons to understand where Hungary may stand out, and on domestic drivers that could help explain stronger inflationary pressure in Hungary. Following an overview of inflation developments over the last two years, the paper draws on an augmented Phillips Curve to estimate the impact of common drivers of inflation, examines the role of labor market tightness and policy stances, and analyzes possible changes to the degree of exchange rate pass through in recent years. Based on the findings, the paper then explores risks to the inflation outlook and draws policy recommendations. Though monetary and fiscal policies are now tightening, inflation expectations are de-anchored and core inflation dynamics remain strong, reflecting a tight labor market and the lag-effect of loose policies that have boosted domestic demand. Going forward, a consistently and persistently tight overall policy mix is needed to drive inflation back to the central bank’s target.

Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Banking --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Prices --- Monetary operations --- Central banks --- Liquidity --- Asset and liability management --- Central bank policy rate --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- International agencies --- Economics --- Interest rates --- Hungary

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This Selected Issues paper examines how and why Hungary reached historically high inflation. Particular attention is placed on cross-country comparisons to understand where Hungary may stand out, and on domestic drivers that could help explain stronger inflationary pressure in Hungary. Following an overview of inflation developments over the last two years, the paper draws on an augmented Phillips Curve to estimate the impact of common drivers of inflation, examines the role of labor market tightness and policy stances, and analyzes possible changes to the degree of exchange rate pass through in recent years. Based on the findings, the paper then explores risks to the inflation outlook and draws policy recommendations. Though monetary and fiscal policies are now tightening, inflation expectations are de-anchored and core inflation dynamics remain strong, reflecting a tight labor market and the lag-effect of loose policies that have boosted domestic demand. Going forward, a consistently and persistently tight overall policy mix is needed to drive inflation back to the central bank’s target.

Hungary --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Economics --- Inflation --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Monetary Policy --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Banking --- Finance --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary policy --- International organization --- Prices --- Monetary operations --- Central banks --- Liquidity --- Asset and liability management --- Central bank policy rate --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- International agencies --- Economics --- Interest rates --- Income economics