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This paper examines the issue of variable selection in linear regression modeling, where there is a potentially large amount of possible covariates and economic theory offers insufficient guidance on how to select the appropriate subset. In this context, Bayesian Model Averaging presents a formal Bayesian solution to dealing with model uncertainty. The main interest here is the effect of the prior on the results, such as posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors and predictive performance. The authors combine a Binomial-Beta prior on model size with a g-prior on the coefficients of each model. In addition, they assign a hyperprior to g, as the choice of g has been found to have a large impact on the results. For the prior on g, they examine the Zellner-Siow prior and a class of Beta shrinkage priors, which covers most choices in the recent literature. The authors propose a benchmark Beta prior, inspired by earlier findings with fixed g, and show it leads to consistent model selection. Inference is conducted through a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler over model space and g. The authors examine the performance of the various priors in the context of simulated and real data. For the latter, they consider two important applications in economics, namely cross-country growth regression and returns to schooling. Recommendations for applied users are provided.

Arts & Music --- Consistency --- Educational Technology and Distance Education --- Geographical Information Systems --- Information Security & Privacy --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Model Uncertainty --- Posterior Odds --- Poverty Reduction --- Prediction --- Robustness --- Statistical & Mathematical Sciences

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This open access book reports on innovative methods, technologies and strategies for mastering uncertainty in technical systems. Despite the fact that current research on uncertainty is mainly focusing on uncertainty quantification and analysis, this book gives emphasis to innovative ways to master uncertainty in engineering design, production and product usage alike. It gathers authoritative contributions by more than 30 scientists reporting on years of research in the areas of engineering, applied mathematics and law, thus offering a timely, comprehensive and multidisciplinary account of theories and methods for quantifying data, model and structural uncertainty, and of fundamental strategies for mastering uncertainty. It covers key concepts such as robustness, flexibility and resilience in detail. All the described methods, technologies and strategies have been validated with the help of three technical systems, i.e. the Modular Active Spring-Damper System, the Active Air Spring and the 3D Servo Press, which have been in turn developed and tested during more than ten years of cooperative research. Overall, this book offers a timely, practice-oriented reference guide to graduate students, researchers and professionals dealing with uncertainty in the broad field of mechanical engineering.

Technical design --- Operational research --- Stochastic Data Uncertainty --- Model Uncertainty --- Structural Uncertainty --- Robust Optimization Under Uncertainty --- Adaptive Technical Systems --- Optimal Design of Technical Systems --- Resilient Technical Systems --- Robust Design --- Product Design Under Uncertainty --- Visualization of Uncertainty --- Sonderforschungsbereich (SFB) 805 --- Fluid Dynamic Vibration Absorber --- 3D Servo Press --- Active Air Spring --- Active/Semi-Active Systems --- Increasing Flexibility in Manufacturing --- Open Access Book

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- Water resources management should be assessed under climate change conditions, as historic data cannot replicate future climatic conditions. - Climate change impacts on water resources are bound to affect all water uses, i.e., irrigated agriculture, domestic and industrial water supply, hydropower generation, and environmental flow (of streams and rivers) and water level (of lakes). - Bottom-up approaches, i.e., the forcing of hydrologic simulation models with climate change models’ outputs, are the most common engineering practices and considered as climate-resilient water management approaches. - Hydrologic simulations forced by climate change scenarios derived from regional climate models (RCMs) can provide accurate assessments of the future water regime at basin scales. - Irrigated agriculture requires special attention as it is the principal water consumer and alterations of both precipitation and temperature patterns will directly affect agriculture yields and incomes. - Integrated water resources management (IWRM) requires multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches, with climate change to be an emerging cornerstone in the IWRM concept.

Research & information: general --- California --- hydrologic regions --- warming --- drought --- regional climate modeling --- hydrological modeling --- bias correction --- multivariate --- pseudo reality --- rainfall --- trend analysis --- Mann–Kendall --- kriging interpolation --- multiple climate models --- standardized precipitation index (SPI) --- droughts --- weights --- Vu Gia-Thu Bon --- climate change --- optimal control --- geoengineering --- climate manipulation --- GCM --- RCM --- CMIP5 --- CORDEX --- climate model selection --- upper Indus basin --- NDVI --- ENSO --- wavelet --- time series analysis --- Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park --- Google Earth Engine --- Mediterranean climate --- cluster analysis --- objective classification --- ERA5 --- mega-fires --- Bayesian-model averaging --- model uncertainty --- climate-fire models --- Mono River watershed --- climate --- temperature --- heat wave --- excess heat factor --- acclimatization --- Greece --- precipitations --- Hurst exponent --- persistence --- spatial correlation --- Caucasian region --- Regional Climate Model --- climate classification --- bias correction methods --- precipitation --- terrestrial ecosystems --- GPP --- LAI --- CO2 fertilization effect --- feedback --- sassandra watershed --- Côte d’Ivoire --- boreal region --- extreme wind speed --- wind climate --- soil frost --- wind damage risk management --- wind multiplier --- downscaling --- topography --- surface roughness --- VIIRS --- MODIS --- OLCI --- RSB --- SNPP --- Terra --- Aqua --- Sentinel-3A --- reflective solar bands --- intersensor comparison --- intercalibration --- SNO --- climate indices --- climate change and Conakry --- California --- hydrologic regions --- warming --- drought --- regional climate modeling --- hydrological modeling --- bias correction --- multivariate --- pseudo reality --- rainfall --- trend analysis --- Mann–Kendall --- kriging interpolation --- multiple climate models --- standardized precipitation index (SPI) --- droughts --- weights --- Vu Gia-Thu Bon --- climate change --- optimal control --- geoengineering --- climate manipulation --- GCM --- RCM --- CMIP5 --- CORDEX --- climate model selection --- upper Indus basin --- NDVI --- ENSO --- wavelet --- time series analysis --- Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park --- Google Earth Engine --- Mediterranean climate --- cluster analysis --- objective classification --- ERA5 --- mega-fires --- Bayesian-model averaging --- model uncertainty --- climate-fire models --- Mono River watershed --- climate --- temperature --- heat wave --- excess heat factor --- acclimatization --- Greece --- precipitations --- Hurst exponent --- persistence --- spatial correlation --- Caucasian region --- Regional Climate Model --- climate classification --- bias correction methods --- precipitation --- terrestrial ecosystems --- GPP --- LAI --- CO2 fertilization effect --- feedback --- sassandra watershed --- Côte d’Ivoire --- boreal region --- extreme wind speed --- wind climate --- soil frost --- wind damage risk management --- wind multiplier --- downscaling --- topography --- surface roughness --- VIIRS --- MODIS --- OLCI --- RSB --- SNPP --- Terra --- Aqua --- Sentinel-3A --- reflective solar bands --- intersensor comparison --- intercalibration --- SNO --- climate indices --- climate change and Conakry

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- Water resources management should be assessed under climate change conditions, as historic data cannot replicate future climatic conditions. - Climate change impacts on water resources are bound to affect all water uses, i.e., irrigated agriculture, domestic and industrial water supply, hydropower generation, and environmental flow (of streams and rivers) and water level (of lakes). - Bottom-up approaches, i.e., the forcing of hydrologic simulation models with climate change models’ outputs, are the most common engineering practices and considered as climate-resilient water management approaches. - Hydrologic simulations forced by climate change scenarios derived from regional climate models (RCMs) can provide accurate assessments of the future water regime at basin scales. - Irrigated agriculture requires special attention as it is the principal water consumer and alterations of both precipitation and temperature patterns will directly affect agriculture yields and incomes. - Integrated water resources management (IWRM) requires multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches, with climate change to be an emerging cornerstone in the IWRM concept.

Research & information: general --- California --- hydrologic regions --- warming --- drought --- regional climate modeling --- hydrological modeling --- bias correction --- multivariate --- pseudo reality --- rainfall --- trend analysis --- Mann–Kendall --- kriging interpolation --- multiple climate models --- standardized precipitation index (SPI) --- droughts --- weights --- Vu Gia-Thu Bon --- climate change --- optimal control --- geoengineering --- climate manipulation --- GCM --- RCM --- CMIP5 --- CORDEX --- climate model selection --- upper Indus basin --- NDVI --- ENSO --- wavelet --- time series analysis --- Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park --- Google Earth Engine --- Mediterranean climate --- cluster analysis --- objective classification --- ERA5 --- mega-fires --- Bayesian-model averaging --- model uncertainty --- climate-fire models --- Mono River watershed --- climate --- temperature --- heat wave --- excess heat factor --- acclimatization --- Greece --- precipitations --- Hurst exponent --- persistence --- spatial correlation --- Caucasian region --- Regional Climate Model --- climate classification --- bias correction methods --- precipitation --- terrestrial ecosystems --- GPP --- LAI --- CO2 fertilization effect --- feedback --- sassandra watershed --- Côte d’Ivoire --- boreal region --- extreme wind speed --- wind climate --- soil frost --- wind damage risk management --- wind multiplier --- downscaling --- topography --- surface roughness --- VIIRS --- MODIS --- OLCI --- RSB --- SNPP --- Terra --- Aqua --- Sentinel-3A --- reflective solar bands --- intersensor comparison --- intercalibration --- SNO --- climate indices --- climate change and Conakry

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As the most heavily populated areas in the world, coastal zones host the majority and some of the most important human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities. Harbour and coastal structures are essential to the above, facilitating the transport of people and goods through ports, and protecting low-lying areas against flooding and erosion. While these structures were previously based on relatively rigid concepts about service life, at present, the design—or the upgrading—of these structures should effectively proof them against future pressures, enhancing their resilience and long-term sustainability. This Special Issue brings together a versatile collection of articles on the modelling of harbour and coastal structures, covering a wide array of topics on the design of such structures through a study of their interactions with waves and coastal morphology, as well as their role in coastal protection and harbour design in present and future climates.

beach morphology --- beach nourishment performance --- sustainable development --- General Shoreline beach model --- United Arab Emirates --- Saadiyat Island --- breakwater --- extreme learning machine --- stability assessment --- machine learning --- column-stabilized fish cage --- horizontal wave force --- least squares method --- hydrodynamic coefficient --- vertical breakwater --- reliability analysis --- overall stability --- sliding failure --- overturning failure --- bearing capacity analysis --- breakwater’s foundation failure --- rubble-mound --- zero-freeboard --- porous-media --- immersed-boundary --- level-set --- Smagorinsky subgrid scale model --- wave reflection --- wave transmission --- wave overtopping --- wave setup --- Nowshahr port --- field measurements --- numerical simulation --- wave --- current --- sediment transport --- rubble mound breakwaters --- historical review --- damage measurement --- damage characterization --- damage --- damage model --- damage progression --- input reduction --- wave schematization --- pick-up rate --- MIKE21 CM FM --- long-term morphological modelling --- numerical model --- OpenFOAM --- scour --- vertical breakwaters --- mortar-grouted riprap revetment --- full-scale hydraulic tests --- design of revetments --- Balearic Islands --- Boumerdès --- current speed --- harbor --- tsunami --- model uncertainty --- reliability --- pile settlement --- piles in granular soil --- base resistance --- skin friction --- t-z curves --- climate change --- coastal flooding --- coastal structures --- numerical modelling --- Boussinesq equations --- n/a --- breakwater's foundation failure --- Boumerdès