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Mission Impossible? Exploring the Promise of Multiple Imputation for Predicting Missing GPS-Based Land Area Measures in Household Surveys
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Research has provided robust evidence for the use of GPS technology to be the scalable gold standard in land area measurement in household surveys. Nonetheless, facing budget constraints, survey agencies often seek to measure with GPS only plots within a given radius of dwelling locations. Subsequently, it is common for significant shares of plots not to be measured, and research has highlighted the selection biases resulting from using incomplete data. This study relies on nationally-representative, multi-topic household survey data from Malawi and Ethiopia that exhibit near-negligible missingness in GPS-based plot areas, and validates the accuracy of a multiple imputation model for predicting missing GPS-based plot areas in household surveys. The analysis (i) randomly creates missingness among plots beyond two operationally relevant distance measures from the dwelling locations; (ii) conducts multiple imputation under each distance scenario for each artificially created data set; and (iii) compares the distributions of the imputed plot-level outcomes, namely, area and agricultural productivity, with the known distributions. In Malawi, multiple imputation can produce imputed yields that are statistically undistinguishable from the true distributions with up to 82 percent missingness in plot areas that are further than 1 kilometer from the dwelling location. The comparable figure in Ethiopia is 56 percent. These rates correspond to overall rates of missingness of 23 percent in Malawi and 13 percent in Ethiopia. The study highlights the promise of multiple imputation for reliably predicting missing GPS-based plot areas, and provides recommendations for optimizing fieldwork activities to capture the minimum required data.


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Making Gravity Great Again
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The gravity model is now widely used for policy analysis and hypothesis testing, but different estimators give sharply different parameter estimates and popular estimators are likely biased because dependent variables are limited-dependent, error variances are nonconstant and missing data frequently reported as zeros. Monte Carlo analysis based on real-world parameters for aggregate trade shows that the traditional Ordinary Least Squares estimator in logarithms is strongly biased downwards. The popular Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model also suffers from downward bias. An Eaton-Kortum maximum-likelihood approach dealing with the identified sources of bias provides unbiased parameter estimates.


Book
Missing(ness) in Action : Selectivity Bias in GPS-Based Land Area Measurements
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Year: 2013 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Land area is a fundamental component of agricultural statistics, and of analyses undertaken by agricultural economists. While household surveys in developing countries have traditionally relied on farmers' own, potentially error-prone, land area assessments, the availability of affordable and reliable Global Positioning System (GPS) units has made GPS-based area measurement a practical alternative. Nonetheless, in an attempt to reduce costs, keep interview durations within reasonable limits, and avoid the difficulty of asking respondents to accompany interviewers to distant plots, survey implementing agencies typically require interviewers to record GPS-based area measurements only for plots within a given radius of dwelling locations. It is, therefore, common for as much as a third of the sample plots not to be measured, and research has not shed light on the possible selection bias in analyses relying on partial data due to gaps in GPS-based area measures. This paper explores the patterns of missingness in GPS-based plot areas, and investigates their implications for land productivity estimates and the inverse scale-land productivity relationship. Using Multiple Imputation (MI) to predict missing GPS-based plot areas in nationally-representative survey data from Uganda and Tanzania, the paper highlights the potential of MI in reliably simulating the missing data, and confirms the existence of an inverse scale-land productivity relationship, which is strengthened by using the complete, multiply-imputed dataset. The study demonstrates the usefulness of judiciously reconstructed GPS-based areas in alleviating concerns over potential measurement error in farmer-reported areas, and with regards to systematic bias in plot selection for GPS-based area measurement.

Applied Bayesian modeling and causal inference from incomplete-data perspectives: an essential journey with Donald Rubin's statistical family
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ISBN: 047009043X 9780470090435 Year: 2004 Publisher: Chichester Wiley

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This book brings together a collection of articles on statistical methods relating to missing data analysis, including multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables, and Bayesian inference. Covering new research topics and real-world examples which do not feature in many standard texts. The book is dedicated to Professor Don Rubin (Harvard). Don Rubin has made fundamental contributions to the study of missing data. Key features of the book include: Comprehensive coverage of an imporant area for both research and applications. Adopts a pragmatic approach to describing a wide range of intermediate and advanced statistical techniques. Covers key topics such as multiple imputation, propensity scores, instrumental variables and Bayesian inference. Includes a number of applications from the social and health sciences. Edited and authored by highly respected researchers in the area.


Book
Semiparametric theory and missing data
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ISBN: 1280743840 9786610743841 0387373454 Year: 2006 Publisher: New York : Springer,

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Missing data arise in almost all scientific disciplines. In many cases, the treatment of missing data in an analysis is carried out in a casual and ad-hoc manner, leading, in many cases, to invalid inference and erroneous conclusions. In the past 20 years or so, there has been a serious attempt to understand the underlying issues and difficulties that come about from missing data and their impact on subsequent analysis. There has been a great deal written on the theory developed for analyzing missing data for finite-dimensional parametric models. This includes an extensive literature on likelihood-based methods and multiple imputation. More recently, there has been increasing interest in semiparametric models which, roughly speaking, are models that include both a parametric and nonparametric component. Such models are popular because estimators in such models are more robust than in traditional parametric models. The theory of missing data applied to semiparametric models is scattered throughout the literature with no thorough comprehensive treatment of the subject. This book combines much of what is known in regard to the theory of estimation for semiparametric models with missing data in an organized and comprehensive manner. It starts with the study of semiparametric methods when there are no missing data. The description of the theory of estimation for semiparametric models is at a level that is both rigorous and intuitive, relying on geometric ideas to reinforce the intuition and understanding of the theory. These methods are then applied to problems with missing, censored, and coarsened data with the goal of deriving estimators that are as robust and efficient as possible. Anastasios A. Tsiatis is the Drexel Professor of Statistics at North Carolina State University. His research has focused on developing statistical methods for the design and analysis of clinical trials, censored survival analysis, group sequential methods, surrogate markers, semiparametric methods with missing and censored data and causal inference and has been the major Ph.D. advisor for more than 30 students working in these areas. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. He is the recipient of the Spiegelman Award and the Snedecor Award. He has been an Associate Editor of the Annals of Statistics and Statistics and Probability Letters and is currently an Associate Editor for Biometrika.


Book
Flexible imputation of missing data
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ISBN: 9781138588318 9780429492259 Year: 2018 Publisher: Boca Raton, Fla CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group


Book
A Survival Guide to the Misinformation Age : Scientific Habits of Mind
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ISBN: 0231541023 9780231541022 9780231168724 0231168721 Year: 2016 Publisher: New York, NY : Columbia University Press,

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We live in the Information Age, with billions of bytes of data just two swipes away. Yet how much of this is mis- or even disinformation? A lot of it is, and your search engine can't tell the difference. As a result, an avalanche of misinformation threatens to overwhelm the discourse we so desperately need to address complex social problems such as climate change, the food and water crises, biodiversity collapse, and emerging threats to public health. This book provides an inoculation against the misinformation epidemic by cultivating scientific habits of mind. Anyone can do it—indeed, everyone must do it if our species is to survive on this crowded and finite planet.This survival guide supplies an essential set of apps for the prefrontal cortex while making science both accessible and entertaining. It will dissolve your fear of numbers, demystify graphs, and elucidate the key concepts of probability, all while celebrating the precise use of language and logic. David Helfand, one of our nation's leading astronomers and science educators, has taught scientific habits of mind to generations in the classroom, where he continues to wage a provocative battle against sloppy thinking and the encroachment of misinformation.

Deterministic observation theory and applications
Authors: ---
ISBN: 9780511546648 9780521805933 9780521183864 0511016999 9780511016998 0521805937 0511044054 9780511044052 0511546645 1280433477 9781280433474 9786610433476 661043347X 0521183863 1107123895 0511174756 0511154771 051130238X Year: 2001 Publisher: Cambridge New York Cambridge University Press

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This 2001 book presents a general theory as well as a constructive methodology to solve 'observation problems', that is, reconstructing the full information about a dynamical process on the basis of partial observed data. A general methodology to control processes on the basis of the observations is also developed. Illustrative but also practical applications in the chemical and petroleum industries are shown. This book is intended for use by scientists in the areas of automatic control, mathematics, chemical engineering and physics.

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