Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

A sobering and fascinating study on war in the modern era, this book carefully explores strategies that militarily and politically disadvantaged nations might take in order to successfully attack a geopolitical superpower like the United States. American military doctrine is typically led by technology; a new class of weapon or vehicle is developed, which allows or encourages an adjustment in strategy. The authors argue that this dynamic is a crucial weakness in the American military, and that this blind spot with regard to alternative forms of warfare could be effectively exploited by enemies. This book concerns the many ways in which this might occur, and, in turn, suggests what the United States might do to defend itself. The traditional mentality that offensive action is limited to military action is no longer adequate given the range of contemporary threats and the rising costs - both in dollars and lives lost - of traditional warfare. Instead, the authors suggest the significance of alternatives to direct military confrontation, including international policy, economic warfare, attacks on digital infrastructure and networks, and terrorism. Even a relatively insignificant state can incapacitate a far more powerful enemy by applying pressure to their economic and political systems.

Polemology --- WAR--FORECASTING --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--FORECASTING

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

In 1912 Sir Arthur Conan Doyle wrote a short story about a war fought from underwater submersibles that included the sinking of passenger ships. It was dismissed by the British admirals of the day, not on the basis of technical feasibility, but because sinking civilian ships was not something that any civilised nation would do. The reality of war often contradicts expectations, less because of some fantastic technical or engineering dimension, but more because of some human, political, or moral threshold that we had never imagined would be crossed. As the author shows, ideas about the causes of war and strategies for its conduct have rich and varied histories which shape predictions about the future. He shows how looking at how the future of war was conceived about in the past (and why this was more often than not wrong) can put into perspective current thinking about future conflicts.

WAR--FORECASTING --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--FORECASTING --- WAR--HISTORY --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--HISTORY

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

In 1912 Sir Arthur Conan Doyle wrote a short story about a war fought from underwater submersibles that included the sinking of passenger ships. It was dismissed by the British admirals of the day, not on the basis of technical feasibility, but because sinking civilian ships was not something that any civilised nation would do. The reality of war often contradicts expectations, less because of some fantastic technical or engineering dimension, but more because of some human, political, or moral threshold that we had never imagined would be crossed. As Lawrence Freedman shows, ideas about the causes of war and strategies for its conduct have rich and varied histories which shape predictions about the future. Freedman shows how looking at how the future of war was conceived about in the past (and why this was more often than not wrong) can put into perspective current thinking about future conflicts.

WAR--FORECASTING --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--FORECASTING --- WAR--HISTORY --- MILITARY ART AND SCIENCE--HISTORY --- War --- History --- Forecasting

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

War --- Military art and science --- World politics --- Guerre --- Art et science militaires --- Politique mondiale --- Forecasting. --- Forecasting --- Prévision --- Prévision --- Military art and science - Forecasting --- War - Forecasting --- World politics - 1989 --- -War

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. The book also demonstrates the methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

Data mining. --- Military art and science -- Forecasting. --- Violence -- Forecasting. --- Violence -- Statistics. --- War -- Forecasting. --- Physics --- Physical Sciences & Mathematics --- Physics - General --- Sociology, Military --- Social conflict --- Geospatial data. --- Mathematical models. --- Computer simulation. --- Data, Geospatial --- Class conflict --- Class struggle --- Conflict, Social --- Social tensions --- Military sociology --- Physics. --- Probabilities. --- Mathematics. --- Social sciences. --- Sociophysics. --- Econophysics. --- Complexity, Computational. --- Socio- and Econophysics, Population and Evolutionary Models. --- Mathematics in the Humanities and Social Sciences. --- Complexity. --- Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes. --- Signal, Image and Speech Processing. --- Geographic information systems --- Interpersonal conflict --- Social psychology --- Sociology --- Armed Forces --- Armies --- Peace --- War --- War and society --- Engineering. --- Distribution (Probability theory. --- Data-driven Science, Modeling and Theory Building. --- Distribution functions --- Frequency distribution --- Characteristic functions --- Probabilities --- Construction --- Industrial arts --- Technology --- Computational complexity. --- Signal processing. --- Image processing. --- Speech processing systems. --- Computational linguistics --- Electronic systems --- Information theory --- Modulation theory --- Oral communication --- Speech --- Telecommunication --- Singing voice synthesizers --- Pictorial data processing --- Picture processing --- Processing, Image --- Imaging systems --- Optical data processing --- Processing, Signal --- Information measurement --- Signal theory (Telecommunication) --- Probability --- Statistical inference --- Combinations --- Mathematics --- Chance --- Least squares --- Mathematical statistics --- Risk --- Complexity, Computational --- Electronic data processing --- Machine theory --- Behavioral sciences --- Human sciences --- Sciences, Social --- Social science --- Social studies --- Civilization --- Math --- Science --- Economics --- Statistical physics --- Mathematical sociology --- Statistical methods