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This open access book provides a step-by-step overview on how to build a microsimulation model with SAS. It shows how to convert an already existing multistate projection by age, sex, education and region into a microsimulation model. Two new dimensions are then added, either the labor force participation and the sector of activity, and/or some examples of outputs and alternative scenarios that would not be possible with standard demographic methods. The book also describes how to adapt the model for other countries or other purposes. It also provides details on how to extend and adapt the model for other purposes as well as other use of microsimulation with SAS. The book suggests codes that are easy to understand, so they can be replicated or adapted for other purposes. As such, this book provides a great resource for people with beginner to intermediate knowledge in SAS.
Population & demography --- Computer modelling & simulation --- Microsimulation in SAS --- Population Projection in SAS --- Multidimensional Projection Methods --- Statistical Software for Microsimulation --- Coding Microsimulation --- Projecting Labour Force Participation --- Projecting Human Capital --- Population Modelling in SAS --- Demographic Projections
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This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.
Conditional Cash Transfers --- Experiments --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microsimulation --- Poverty Monitoring & Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Primary Education --- Science Education --- Scientific Research & Science Parks --- Youth and Governance --- Ecuador --- Mexico
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This paper simulates the welfare and poverty impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Islamic Republic of Iran, emphasizing the role of inflation, which lowered the purchasing power of households and had heterogeneous impacts across the distribution and in different regions of the country. First, income losses are estimated with a microsimulation analysis based on shock scenarios. Second, combining data on price changes with expenditure baskets for various groups of households, group-specific price indices are calculated. These are then applied to the post-shock income changes to assess the deterioration of living standards associated with inflation. Poverty substantially increases, by up to 21 percentage points, as a combined result of the fall in household incomes and high inflation through the pandemic. Iranians in the bottom half of the welfare distribution, those working in services and high-contact economic sectors, and those in rural areas are disproportionately affected.
Coronavirus --- COVID-19 --- Disease Control and Prevention --- Distributional Impact --- Employment and Unemployment --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Inequality --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microsimulation --- Pandemic Impact --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction
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This paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.
Conditional Cash Transfers --- Experiments --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microsimulation --- Poverty Monitoring & Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Primary Education --- Science Education --- Scientific Research & Science Parks --- Youth and Governance --- Ecuador --- Mexico
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Matched sampling is often used to help assess the causal effect of some exposure or intervention, typically when randomized experiments are not available or cannot be conducted. This book presents a selection of Donald B. Rubin's research articles on matched sampling, from the early 1970s, when the author was one of the major researchers involved in establishing the field, to recent contributions to this now extremely active area. The articles include fundamental theoretical studies that have become classics, important extensions, and real applications that range from breast cancer treatments to tobacco litigation to studies of criminal tendencies. They are organized into seven parts, each with an introduction by the author that provides historical and personal context and discusses the relevance of the work today. A concluding essay offers advice to investigators designing observational studies. The book provides an accessible introduction to the study of matched sampling and will be an indispensable reference for students and researchers.
Mathematical statistics --- Statistical matching --- Sampling (Statistics) --- wiskundige statistiek --- Concatenation, File (Statistics) --- Data fusion (Statistics) --- Data matching (Statistics) --- Data merging (Statistics) --- File concatenation (Statistics) --- Fusion, Data (Statistics) --- Imputation, Mass (Statistics) --- Mass imputation (Statistics) --- Matching, Data (Statistics) --- Matching, Statistical --- Merging, Data (Statistics) --- Microsimulation modeling (Statistics) --- Modeling, Microsimulation (Statistics) --- Random sampling --- Statistics of sampling --- Statistics --- Statistical matching.
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'Practical Microsimulation Modelling' brings together a description and examples of the main methods used in microsimulation modelling used in the field of income distribution analysis. It is structured to develop and use the different types of models used in the field, with a focus on household targeted policy.
Econometric models. --- Statistical matching. --- Appariement (Statistique) --- Income distribution --- Mathematical models. --- Concatenation, File (Statistics) --- Data fusion (Statistics) --- Data matching (Statistics) --- Data merging (Statistics) --- File concatenation (Statistics) --- Fusion, Data (Statistics) --- Imputation, Mass (Statistics) --- Mass imputation (Statistics) --- Matching, Data (Statistics) --- Matching, Statistical --- Merging, Data (Statistics) --- Microsimulation modeling (Statistics) --- Modeling, Microsimulation (Statistics) --- Sampling (Statistics) --- Econometric models --- Statistical matching
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The digital economy led to many new services where supply is matched with demand for various types of goods and services. More and more people and organizations are now in a position to design market rules that are being implemented in software. The design of markets is challenging as it needs to consider strategic behavior of market participants, psychological factors, and computational problems in order to implement the objectives of a designer. Market models in economics have not lost their importance, but the recent years have led to many new insights and principles for the design of markets, which are beyond traditional economic theory. This book introduces the fundamentals of market design, an engineering field concerned with the design of real-world markets.
Markets --- Supply and demand. --- Statistical matching. --- Game theory. --- Games, Theory of --- Theory of games --- Mathematical models --- Mathematics --- Concatenation, File (Statistics) --- Data fusion (Statistics) --- Data matching (Statistics) --- Data merging (Statistics) --- File concatenation (Statistics) --- Fusion, Data (Statistics) --- Imputation, Mass (Statistics) --- Mass imputation (Statistics) --- Matching, Data (Statistics) --- Matching, Statistical --- Merging, Data (Statistics) --- Microsimulation modeling (Statistics) --- Modeling, Microsimulation (Statistics) --- Sampling (Statistics) --- Demand and supply --- Industrial production --- Law of supply and demand --- Economics --- Competition --- Exchange --- Overproduction --- Prices --- Value --- Public markets --- Commerce --- Fairs --- Market towns --- Mathematical models.
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This handbook brings together the latest research on applied market design. It surveys matching markets: environments where there is a need to match large two-sided populations to one another, such as law clerks and judges or patients and kidney donors.
Game theory. --- Markets --- Statistical matching. --- Supply and demand. --- Mathematical models. --- Demand and supply --- Industrial production --- Law of supply and demand --- Economics --- Competition --- Exchange --- Overproduction --- Prices --- Value --- Concatenation, File (Statistics) --- Data fusion (Statistics) --- Data matching (Statistics) --- Data merging (Statistics) --- File concatenation (Statistics) --- Fusion, Data (Statistics) --- Imputation, Mass (Statistics) --- Mass imputation (Statistics) --- Matching, Data (Statistics) --- Matching, Statistical --- Merging, Data (Statistics) --- Microsimulation modeling (Statistics) --- Modeling, Microsimulation (Statistics) --- Sampling (Statistics) --- Public markets --- Commerce --- Fairs --- Market towns --- Games, Theory of --- Theory of games --- Mathematical models --- Mathematics --- Supply and demand --- Statistical matching --- Game theory --- E-books
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Evidence indicates that trade costs are a much more substantial barrier to trade than tariffs are, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This paper decomposes trade costs into: (i) trade facilitation, (ii) non-tariff barriers, and (iii) the costs of business services. The paper assesses the poverty and shared prosperity impacts of deep integration to reduce these three types of trade costs in: (i) the East African Customs Union-Common Market of East and Southern Africa-South African Development Community "Tripartite" Free Trade Area; (ii) within the East African Customs Union; and (iii) unilaterally by the East African Customs Union. The analysis employs an innovative, multi-region computable general equilibrium model to estimate the changes in the macroeconomic variables that impact poverty and shared prosperity. The model estimates are used in the Global Income Distribution Dynamics microsimulation model to obtain assessments of the changes in the poverty headcount and shared prosperity for each of the simulations for the six African regions or countries. The paper finds that these reforms are pro-poor. There are significant reductions in the poverty headcount and the percentage of the population living in poverty for all six of the African regions from deep integration in the Tripartite Free Trade Area or comparable unilateral reforms by the East African Customs Union. Further, the incomes of the bottom 40 percent of the populations noticeably increase in all countries or regions that are engaged in the trade reforms. The reason for the poor share in prosperity is the fact that the reforms increase unskilled wages faster than the rewards of other factors of production, as the reforms tend to favor agriculture. Despite the uniform increases in income for the poorest 40 percent, there are some cases where the share of income captured by the poorest 40 percent of the population decreases. The estimated gains vary considerably across countries and reforms. Thus, countries would have an interest in negotiating for different reforms in different agreements.
CGE --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microsimulation --- Non-Tariff Barriers --- Poverty Head Count --- Private Sector Development --- Regional Integration --- Services Liberalization --- Shared Prosperity --- Trade Costs --- Trade Facilitation --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy --- Tripartite Free Trade
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