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Retooling Poverty Targeting Using Out-of-Sample Validation and Machine Learning
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Proxy means test (PMT) poverty targeting tools have become common tools for beneficiary targeting and poverty assessment where full means tests are costly. Currently popular estimation procedures for generating these tools prioritize minimization of in-sample prediction errors; however, the objective in generating such tools is out-of-sample prediction. This paper presents evidence that prioritizing minimal out-of-sample error, identified through cross-validation and stochastic ensemble methods, in PMT tool development can substantially improve the out-of-sample performance of these targeting tools. The USAID poverty assessment tool and base data are used for demonstration of these methods; however, the methods applied in this paper should be considered for PMT and other poverty-targeting tool development more broadly.


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Finding the Poor vs. Measuring their Poverty : Exploring the Drivers of Targeting Effectiveness in Indonesia
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Centralized targeting registries are increasingly used to allocate social assistance benefits in developing countries. There are two key design issues that matter for targeting accuracy: (i) which households to survey for inclusion in the registry and (ii) how to rank surveyed households. The authors attempt to identify their relative importance by evaluating Indonesia's Unified Database for Social Protection Programs (UDB), among the largest targeting registries in the world, used to provide social assistance to over 25 million households. Linking administrative data with an independent household survey, they find that the UDB system is more progressive than previous, program-specific targeting approaches. However, simulating an alternative targeting system based on enumerating all households, they find a one-third reduction in undercoverage of the poor compared to focusing on households registered in the UDB. Overall, there are large gains in targeting performance from improving the initial registration stage relative to the ranking stage.


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Social Assistance - Cash Transfers : Potential Impact of Decision 67.
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Year: 2009 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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A wide range of public policies aims at improving the social welfare of the population or specific groups among the population. The use of the term social protection usually refers to the group of social policies that provide cash transfer to protect households from poverty. The goal of this study is to measure the possible impact of these new policies. Because the new regulations have been recently passed and few administrative data on the programs are available, the study cannot report on the effective impact of the new policy. The approach instead uses the 2006 VHLSS (Vietnamese Household Living Standard Survey) to estimate how efficient the new policy could be if it had enough resource to be fully implemented without any restriction. The first section measures how many of the poor could be eligible to social allowances if the decision 67 could be fully implemented. The second section describes the characteristics of the poor that would probably not benefit from this new policy.

Transformation of the welfare state : the silent surrender of public responsibility
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ISBN: 019517657X 1280481498 9786610481491 0198032242 1602569088 Year: 2002 Publisher: Oxford ; New York : Oxford University Press,

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In this work, Neil Gilbert argues that the changes in welfare policy we are witnessing in Europe and the US are not marginal adjustments to the borders of the welfare state, but represent a fundamental shift in the philosophy of social protection.


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Reserved for the poor: the means test in British social policy
Authors: ---
ISBN: 0855204354 0855204362 9780855204358 9780855204365 Year: 1983 Publisher: Oxford Basil Blackwell


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Universal Minimum Old Age Pensions : Impact On Poverty and Fiscal Cost in 18 Latin American Countries
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Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Alleviating poverty for the elderly requires a different approach from other age groups, and a minimum pension is likely to be the only viable option. This paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal cost of universal minimum old age pensions in 18 Latin American countries using recent household survey data. First the authors measure old age poverty rates for these countries. Then they discuss the design of minimum pensions schemes - means-tested or not - as well as the disincentives they introduce for the economic and social behavior of households including labor supply, saving and family solidarity. Finally, the authors use household survey data to simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty rates of alternative minimum pension schemes in the 18 countries. They show that a universal minimum pension would substantially reduce poverty among the elderly (except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimum pension systems already exist and poverty rates are low). Such schemes have much to be commended in terms of incentives, spillover effects and administrative simplicity, but they have a high fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age at which benefits are awarded, the prevailing longevity, the generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and the fiscal capacity of the country.


Book
Universal Minimum Old Age Pensions : Impact On Poverty and Fiscal Cost in 18 Latin American Countries
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Abstract

Alleviating poverty for the elderly requires a different approach from other age groups, and a minimum pension is likely to be the only viable option. This paper examines the impact on old age poverty and the fiscal cost of universal minimum old age pensions in 18 Latin American countries using recent household survey data. First the authors measure old age poverty rates for these countries. Then they discuss the design of minimum pensions schemes - means-tested or not - as well as the disincentives they introduce for the economic and social behavior of households including labor supply, saving and family solidarity. Finally, the authors use household survey data to simulate the fiscal cost and the impact on poverty rates of alternative minimum pension schemes in the 18 countries. They show that a universal minimum pension would substantially reduce poverty among the elderly (except in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay where minimum pension systems already exist and poverty rates are low). Such schemes have much to be commended in terms of incentives, spillover effects and administrative simplicity, but they have a high fiscal cost. The latter is a function of the age at which benefits are awarded, the prevailing longevity, the generosity of benefits, the efficacy of means testing, and the fiscal capacity of the country.


Book
Unemployment and the state in Britain
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ISBN: 1526112337 9781526112330 9781526112323 1526112329 9780719086809 0719086809 1781705992 9781781705995 Year: 2013 Publisher: Manchester New York

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An important and original contribution to understandings of the 1930's. Through a comparative case study of south Wales and the north-east of England, the book explores the impact of the highly controversial means test, the relationship between the unemployed and the government and the nature of some of the largest protests of the interwar period.


Book
Republic of Chad : Priorities for Ending Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity.
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Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This systematic country diagnosis (SCD) for Chad aims to identify how to achieve the twin goals of ending poverty and improving shared prosperity. It acknowledges both: (i) the need for selectivity in pro-poor interventions, and (ii) the inherent difficulty to do so given the many competing binding reasons for poverty. Selectivity means the identification of principal opportunities for sustainable poverty reduction in the next 15 years, as well as the identification of binding constraints to reaping such opportunities. Selectivity also implies making trade-offs between immediate and longer term objectives, with priority given to the identification of poverty reduction opportunities which will: (i) deliver the highest possible results before 2030, and (ii) not undermine prospects for poverty reduction and shared prosperity beyond 2030. The analysis presented in the SCD draws on a variety of information sources. These include domestic statistics and reports, evaluations by the country's development partners, original research conducted by the World Bank team, and consultations held in N'Djamena with nongovernmental organizations and the private sector. Reaping poverty reduction opportunities will require addressing a selected number of binding constraints.


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Targeting : Poor and Vulnerable Households in Indonesia.
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Year: 2012 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Indonesia has experienced strong economic growth over the last forty years. At the same time, the proportion of Indonesians living below the poverty line has fallen dramatically. Nonetheless, around 12 percent of Indonesians remain in poverty and another 30 percent remain highly vulnerable to falling into poverty in any given year. In addition, Indonesia has experienced a number of crises in the last two decades, and such shocks are likely to continue in the future in an increasingly integrated global economy. Over the last fifteen years the Government has been developing social assistance programs designed to promote the poor out of poverty and protect poor and vulnerable households from both individual and more widespread shocks. The coverage, design and implementation of these programs continue to be improved as social protection in Indonesia matures, but a number of issues remain. One of the most important, and difficult, is how these programs can accurately target households who need those most. The challenge is to develop a targeting approach which includes most of the poor and vulnerable while minimizing leakage to the rich. At the same time, the system must be feasible, affordable, and accepted and used by all. Furthermore, identifying which households are poor is a difficult task in any developing country, but is particularly so in Indonesia, which has a very large population, a high degree of geographic dispersion, decentralization of much budgetary and operational governance, and frequent entry and exit of households into and from poverty. This evidence-based report builds in part on innovative research done collaboratively with the Government of Indonesia. In this respect Indonesia is contributing to the frontier of global knowledge on targeting, while also drawing on the experience of other countries. Moving from a thorough assessment of the current effectiveness of targeting in Indonesia, the report contains practical and detailed recommendations for the future. In particular, a National Targeting System is proposed, which envisages developing a single registry of potential beneficiaries to target social assistance to the right households, resulting in more accurate and cost-effective targeting outcomes, and ultimately stronger program impacts.

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