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Using panel quantile regressions for 11 advanced and 10 emerging market economies, we show that the conditional distribution of GDP growth depends on financial conditions, with growth-at-risk (GaR)—defined as growth at the lower 5th percentile—more responsive than the median or upper percentiles. In addition, the term structure of GaR features an intertemporal tradeoff: GaR is higher in the short run; but lower in the medium run when initial financial conditions are loose relative to typical levels, and the tradeoff is amplified by a credit boom. This shift in the growth distribution generally is not incorporated when solving dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with macrofinancial linkages, which suggests downside risks to GDP growth are systematically underestimated.

Banks and banking --- Agricultural banks --- Banking --- Banking industry --- Commercial banks --- Depository institutions --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Money --- Finance. --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Business Cycles --- Monetary Growth Models --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary economics --- Growth-at-risk assessment --- Credit booms --- Credit --- Financial sector risk --- Macrofinancial linkages --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial risk management --- Financial services industry --- United States

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This evaluation report assesses research produced at the IMF between 1999 and 2008, focusing on the relevance and utilization of research to member country authorities, IMF staff, and other stakeholders. The report also examines the technical quality and management of research and offers recommendations for enhancing the relevance of research, improving the technical quality of analytical work, promoting openness to alternative perspectives, and improving the management of research.

Economics --- International finance --- International Finance --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- International monetary system --- International money --- International economic relations --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- Research --- Evaluation --- International Monetary Fund --- Evaluation. --- Internationaal monetair fonds --- International monetary fund --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- International Economics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Budgeting --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- International Agreements and Observance --- International Organizations --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary economics --- International institutions --- Budgeting & financial management --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Labor --- Macrofinancial linkages --- Tax incentives --- Monetary policy frameworks --- Financial markets --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Monetary policy --- Financial sector stability --- Budget planning and preparation --- Public financial management (PFM) --- International organization --- International capital markets --- Financial services industry --- Labor economics --- Revenue --- Budget --- Capital market --- United States