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This paper uses loan-level data from 124 countries over 1995-2015 to examine the transmission of monetary policy through the cross-border syndicated loan market. The results show that the expansion of monetary policy increases cross-border credit supply especially to weaker firms. However, greater foreign bank presence in the borrower country appears to reduce the potentially destabilizing impact of lower policy interest rates on cross-border lending, as it attenuates increases in loan volume and maturity while magnifying increases in collateralization and covenant use. The mitigating effect of foreign banking presence in the borrowing country on the transmission of monetary policy is robust to controlling for borrower-country economic and financial development, and a range of borrower and lender country policies and institutions, including the strength of bank regulation and supervision, exchange rate flexibility, and restrictions on capital flows. The findings qualify the characterization of international banks as sources of credit instability, and suggest that foreign bank entry can improve the stability of cross-border credit in the face of international monetary policy shocks.

Macroeconomics and Economic Growth

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Returns to education remain an important parameter of interest in economic analysis. A large literature estimates returns to education in the labor market, often carefully addressing issues such as selection, into wage employment and in terms of completed schooling. There has been much less exploration of whether estimated returns are robust to survey design. Specifically, do returns to education differ depending on how information about wage work is collected? Using a survey experiment in Tanzania, this paper investigates whether survey methods matter for estimating mincerian returns to education. The results show that estimated returns vary by questionnaire design, but not by whether the information on employment and wages is self-reported or collected by a proxy respondent (another household member). The differences due to questionnaire type are substantial varying from 6 percentage points higher returns to education for the highest educated men, to 14 percentage points higher for the least educated women, after allowing for non-linearity and endogeneity in the estimation of these parameters. These differences are of similar magnitudes as the bias in OLS estimation, which receives considerable attention in the literature. The findings underline that survey design matters for the estimation of structural parameters, and that care is needed when comparing across contexts and over time, in particular when data is generated by different surveys.

Education --- Macroeconomics and economic growth

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Recent National Sample Surveys point to significant poverty reduction in India since 2004/05, with a marked acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. This paper enquires into important aspects of income mobility between 2004/05 and 2011/12, based on new statistical methods to convert the three pertinent National Sample Survey rounds into synthetic panels. The analysis draws on the synthetic panels to derive a vulnerability line for India that can be used to separate out a population subgroup comprising non-poor households facing a heightened risk of falling into poverty. The paper documents a strong pattern of upward mobility out of poverty and vulnerability into the middle class, with a noticeable acceleration between 2009/10 and 2011/12. The paper further undertakes a careful investigation into the comparability of the survey rounds, prompted by the observation that fairly significant modifications had been made to survey questionnaires. The findings suggest that changes in questionnaire design have not compromised the comparability of the data.

Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction

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This paper estimates the effect of income inequality on real gross domestic product per capita using a panel of 104 countries during the period 1970-2010. The empirical analysis addresses endogeneity issues by using instrumental variables estimation and controlling for country and time fixed effects. The analysis finds that, on average, income inequality has a significant negative effect on transitional gross domestic product per capita growth and the long-run level of gross domestic product per capita. However, the impact varies by the level of economic development, so much so that in poor countries income inequality has a significant positive effect on gross domestic product per capita.

Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Reduction

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Nepal depends entirely on imports for meeting its demand for petroleum products, which account for the largest share in total import volume. Diesel is the main petroleum product consumed in the country and accounts for 38 percent of the total national CO2 emissions from fuel consumption. There is a general perception that the country would economically benefit if part of imported diesel is substituted with domestically produced jatropha-based biodiesel. This study finds that the economics of jatropha-based biodiesel depend on several factors, such as diesel price, yield of jatropha seeds per hectare, and availability of markets for production byproducts, such as glycerol and jatropha cake. Under the scenarios considered, jatropha biodiesel is unlikely to be economically competitive in Nepal unless seed yields per hectare are implausibly large and high returns can be obtained from byproduct markets that do not yet exist. In the absence of byproduct markets, even earnings from a carbon credit do not help jatropha biodiesel to compete with diesel unless the credit value exceeds USD 50/tCO2 (which is well above current values) and jatropha seed yield is at or above the midrange of the scenarios considered. Declines in diesel prices from the levels observed in 2009-13 only compound the economic competitiveness issue.

Energy --- Environment --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth