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The Dynamic Effect of Social and Political Instability on Output : The Role of Reforms
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ISBN: 1484301986 1484339266 1484312864 Year: 2013 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effect of social and political instability on output. Using a panel of up to 183 countries from 1980 to 2010, the results of the paper suggest that social conflicts have a significant and negative impact on output in the short-term with the magnitude of the effect being a function of the intensity of political instability. The results also show that the recovery of output over the medium-term depends on the ability of the country to implement, in the aftermath of a social instability episode, reforms aimed at improving the level of governance. The results are robust to different checks and estimation strategies.


Book
Labor Market Flexibility and Unemployment : New Empirical Evidence of Static and Dynamic Effects
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ISBN: 1463948913 1463948905 Year: 2012 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between labor market flexibility and unemployment outcomes. Using a panel of 97 countries from 1985 to 2008, the results of the paper suggest that improvements in labor market flexibility have a statistically and significant negative impact on unemployment outcomes (over unemployment, youth unemployment and long-term unemployment). Among the different labor market flexibility indicators analyzed, hiring and firing regulations and hiring costs are found to have the strongest effect.


Book
Financial Integration and Rebalancing in Asia
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ISBN: 1463922647 1463977662 9786613883100 1463948808 1463925182 1283570653 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper shows that Asia's degree of financial integration, both with the world and within the region remains low by various measures. The paper also provides empirical evidence that greater financial integration can support economic rebalancing in statistically meaningful ways. The implication is that in the debate on managing capital inflows the longer-term benefits of financial openness for broader-based growth should not be forgotten.


Book
Unemployment and Labor Market Issues in Algeria
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ISBN: 1475568703 1475516223 Year: 2012 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The aim of this paper is to analyze unemployment and labor market developments in Algeria and assess the factors that may hamper employment creation. The results of the paper suggest that the relative low output-employment elasticities and rigid labor market are the main factors behind the still high level of unemployment, particularly among the youth. Simulation analyses, based on the results on the relation between labor market institutions and unemployment, show that improvement in labor market conditions in Algeria would be key in reducing unemployment both in the short- and medium-term.


Book
The Role of Monthly Economic Statistical Bulletins
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ISBN: 1462376444 1455230618 1451970560 Year: 2002 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Monthly economic statistical bulletins issued by central banks and national statistical offices, the focus of this study, are well established in countries with advanced statistical systems. Such bulletins present a synopsis of current economic trends and cater to a broad group of users involved in policy, markets, media, and research. Compendium bulletins serve as a reference point, contribute to public economic knowledge and transparency, and can add to international visibility. The authors find that only about half of developing countries produce monthly bulletins. Based on experience in industrial countries and a survey of 22 successful bulletins from developing countries, this paper highlights the role of such bulletins and discusses selected aspects of their content, production, and dissemination.


Book
Crises, Labor Market Policy, and Unemployment
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ISBN: 1463948921 146393842X 1463948948 146394893X Year: 2012 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Using a sample of 97 countries spanning the period 1980?2008, we estimate that financial crises have a large negative impact on unemployment in the short term, but that this effect rapidly disappears in the medium term in countries with flexible labor market institutions, whereas the impact of financial crises is less pronounced but more persistent in countries with more rigid labor market institutions. These effects are even larger for youth unemployment in the short term and long-term unemployment in the medium term. Conversely, large upfront, or gradual but significant, comprehensive labor market policies have a positive impact on unemployment, albeit only in the medium term.


Book
Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis
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ISBN: 1475538588 147550568X 1475570074 1475574010 9781475538588 9781475505689 9781475574012 9781475505689 9781475574012 9781475570076 Year: 2012 Volume: WP/12/218 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The aim of this paper is to provide new estimates of employment-output elasticities and assess the effect of structural and macroeocnomic policies on the employment-intensity of growth. Using an unbalanced panel of 167 countries over the period 1991 - 2009, the results suggest that structural policies aimed at increasing labor and product market flexibility and reducing government size have a significant and positive impact on employment elasticities. In addition, the results also suggest that in order to maximize the positive impact on the responsiveness of employment to economic activity, structural policies have to be complemented with macroeconomic policies aimed at increasing macroeconomic stability.


Book
The Chilean Output Gap
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ISBN: 146239406X 1455237744 1283559706 9786613872159 1455214914 Year: 2011 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper estimates the potential output (and the output gap) in Chile using several different methodologies. After a structural brake in 1998, the average growth rate of potential output in Chile declined from over 7 percent to 3-4 percent in the aggregate economy, but to less than 2 percent in the natural resource sector. The contributions to aggregate potential output growth of the natural resource sector and the non-natural resource sector are estimated, finding that the contribution to growth of the natural resource sector is non-linear-increasing during the 1990s, declining during the 2000s, and turning negative in the mid-2000s-despite the monotonic decrease in the share of natural resource output in aggregate output.

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