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Successful implementation of macroprudential policy is contingent on the ability to identify and estimate systemic risk in real time. In this paper, systemic risk is defined as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis and this conditional probability is modeled in a fixed effect binary response model framework. The model structure is dynamic and is designed for monitoring as the systemic risk forecasts only depend on data that are available in real time. Several risk factors are identified and it is hereby shown that the level of systemic risk contains a predictable component which varies through time. Furthermore, it is shown how the systemic risk forecasts map into crisis signals and how policy thresholds are derived in this framework. Finally, in an out-of-sample exercise, it is shown that the systemic risk estimates provided reliable early warning signals ahead of the recent financial crisis for several economies.

Management --- Business & Economics --- Management Styles & Communication --- Financial risk management. --- Risk management. --- Insurance --- Risk management --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Foreign Exchange --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Crises --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Systemic risk --- Systemic crises --- Commercial banks --- Systemic risk assessment --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial crises --- Financial institutions --- Real effective exchange rates --- Financial risk management --- Banks and banking --- United States

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Fintech payments leverage large digital platforms to fill gaps in the traditional payment system. They have made great strides in increasing access to payment services in several countries around the globe. At the same time, like any innovation, the new payment models are exposed to risks in their operating environment. We review the main fintech payment models (mobile money, internet-based fintech payment, and digital money) and discuss operational and financial risks as well as challenges they face. We then explore how public financial management (PFM), especially treasury payments and non-tax revenue collections, could benefit from fintech payments by providing examples of early fintech applications in different countries and discuss the challenges of integrating them into the public sector. The use of fintech in public finance could bring various benefits—including strengthening fiscal transparency, improving budget planning and execution, and upgrading cash management—if public sector institutional and technological capacities are strengthened and risks are adequately mitigated.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Public Finance --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial technology (fintech) --- Public finance & taxation --- Distributed ledgers --- Fintech --- Technology --- Mobile banking --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Revenue administration --- Digital currencies --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Banks and banking, Mobile --- Finance, Public --- Revenue --- India

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Fintech payments leverage large digital platforms to fill gaps in the traditional payment system. They have made great strides in increasing access to payment services in several countries around the globe. At the same time, like any innovation, the new payment models are exposed to risks in their operating environment. We review the main fintech payment models (mobile money, internet-based fintech payment, and digital money) and discuss operational and financial risks as well as challenges they face. We then explore how public financial management (PFM), especially treasury payments and non-tax revenue collections, could benefit from fintech payments by providing examples of early fintech applications in different countries and discuss the challenges of integrating them into the public sector. The use of fintech in public finance could bring various benefits—including strengthening fiscal transparency, improving budget planning and execution, and upgrading cash management—if public sector institutional and technological capacities are strengthened and risks are adequately mitigated.

India --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Public Finance --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial technology (fintech) --- Public finance & taxation --- Distributed ledgers --- Fintech --- Technology --- Mobile banking --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Revenue administration --- Digital currencies --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Banks and banking, Mobile --- Finance, Public --- Revenue

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We develop a micro-founded general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to identify pertinent constraints to financial inclusion. We evaluate quantitatively the policy impacts of relaxing each of these constraints separately, and in combination, on GDP and inequality. We focus on three dimensions of financial inclusion: access (determined by the size of participation costs), depth (determined by the size of collateral constraints resulting from limited commitment), and intermediation efficiency (determined by the size of interest rate spreads and default possibilities due to costly monitoring). We take the model to a firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey for six countries at varying degrees of economic development—three low-income countries (Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique), and three emerging market countries (Malaysia, the Philippines, and Egypt). The results suggest that alleviating different financial frictions have a differential impact across countries, with country-specific characteristics playing a central role in determining the linkages and tradeoffs between inclusion, GDP, inequality, and the distribution of gains and losses.

Financial services industry --- Income distribution --- Gross domestic product --- Computable general equilibrium models. --- Distribution of income --- Income inequality --- Inequality of income --- Distribution (Economic theory) --- Disposable income --- Services, Financial --- Service industries --- CGE models --- Equilibrium models, Computable general --- General equilibrium models, Computable --- Econometric models --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Gross national product --- Econometric models. --- Developing countries --- Emerging nations --- Fourth World --- Global South --- LDC's --- Least developed countries --- Less developed countries --- Newly industrialized countries --- Newly industrializing countries --- NICs (Newly industrialized countries) --- Third World --- Underdeveloped areas --- Underdeveloped countries --- Economic policy --- Computable general equilibrium models --- E-books --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Labor Demand --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Self-employment --- Credit --- Financial inclusion --- Collateral --- Money --- Financial markets --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Self-employed --- Loans --- Philippines