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Successful implementation of macroprudential policy is contingent on the ability to identify and estimate systemic risk in real time. In this paper, systemic risk is defined as the conditional probability of a systemic banking crisis and this conditional probability is modeled in a fixed effect binary response model framework. The model structure is dynamic and is designed for monitoring as the systemic risk forecasts only depend on data that are available in real time. Several risk factors are identified and it is hereby shown that the level of systemic risk contains a predictable component which varies through time. Furthermore, it is shown how the systemic risk forecasts map into crisis signals and how policy thresholds are derived in this framework. Finally, in an out-of-sample exercise, it is shown that the systemic risk estimates provided reliable early warning signals ahead of the recent financial crisis for several economies.
Management --- Business & Economics --- Management Styles & Communication --- Financial risk management. --- Risk management. --- Insurance --- Risk management --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Foreign Exchange --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Crises --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Systemic risk --- Systemic crises --- Commercial banks --- Systemic risk assessment --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial crises --- Financial institutions --- Real effective exchange rates --- Financial risk management --- Banks and banking --- United States
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We study the effects of federal purchases on firms’ investment using a novel panel dataset that combines federal procurement contracts in the United States with key financial firm-level information. We find that 1 dollar of federal spending increases firms’ capital investment by 7 to 11 cents. The average effect masks heterogeneity: Effects are stronger for firms that face financing constraints and they are close to 0 for unconstrained firms. In line with the financial accelerator model, our findings indicate that the effect of government purchases works through easing firms’ access to external borrowing. Furthermore, industry-level analysis suggests that that the increase in investment at the firm level translates into an industry-wide effect without crowding-out capital investment of other firms in the same industry.
Investments: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Public finance & taxation --- Monetary economics --- Macroeconomics --- Expenditure --- Capital spending --- Credit ratings --- Currencies --- Private investment --- Money --- National accounts --- Expenditures, Public --- Capital investments --- Saving and investment --- United States
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Fintech payments leverage large digital platforms to fill gaps in the traditional payment system. They have made great strides in increasing access to payment services in several countries around the globe. At the same time, like any innovation, the new payment models are exposed to risks in their operating environment. We review the main fintech payment models (mobile money, internet-based fintech payment, and digital money) and discuss operational and financial risks as well as challenges they face. We then explore how public financial management (PFM), especially treasury payments and non-tax revenue collections, could benefit from fintech payments by providing examples of early fintech applications in different countries and discuss the challenges of integrating them into the public sector. The use of fintech in public finance could bring various benefits—including strengthening fiscal transparency, improving budget planning and execution, and upgrading cash management—if public sector institutional and technological capacities are strengthened and risks are adequately mitigated.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Public Finance --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial technology (fintech) --- Public finance & taxation --- Distributed ledgers --- Fintech --- Technology --- Mobile banking --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Revenue administration --- Digital currencies --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Banks and banking, Mobile --- Finance, Public --- Revenue --- India
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We develop a stylized balance sheet framework to help identify ‘quasi-fiscal’ components of central bank crisis interventions and show how sources of fiscal risk are created from both the new claims and how they are funded. Combining central bank balance sheet data with survey evidence from intervention announcements, we document the risks to the public sector balance sheet from central banks’ interventions in response to the Covid-19 crisis, including non-conventional lending to the financial and non-financial sectors and large-scale purchases of government securities. Case study analysis indicates that management of fiscal risks from central bank crisis interventions varies greatly across countries, although several good practices can be identified.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Banks and Banking --- Public Finance --- Accounting --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Crisis Management --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Banking --- Public finance & taxation --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Central bank balance sheet --- Central banks --- Central bank operations --- Financial statements --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Fiscal risks --- Public debt --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Finance, Public --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public
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Fintech payments leverage large digital platforms to fill gaps in the traditional payment system. They have made great strides in increasing access to payment services in several countries around the globe. At the same time, like any innovation, the new payment models are exposed to risks in their operating environment. We review the main fintech payment models (mobile money, internet-based fintech payment, and digital money) and discuss operational and financial risks as well as challenges they face. We then explore how public financial management (PFM), especially treasury payments and non-tax revenue collections, could benefit from fintech payments by providing examples of early fintech applications in different countries and discuss the challenges of integrating them into the public sector. The use of fintech in public finance could bring various benefits—including strengthening fiscal transparency, improving budget planning and execution, and upgrading cash management—if public sector institutional and technological capacities are strengthened and risks are adequately mitigated.
India --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Public Finance --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial technology (fintech) --- Public finance & taxation --- Distributed ledgers --- Fintech --- Technology --- Mobile banking --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Revenue administration --- Digital currencies --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Banks and banking, Mobile --- Finance, Public --- Revenue
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This paper presents case studies of central bank crisis interventions during the Covid-19 and the Global Financial Crises in four jurisdictions (Canada, Chile, the United Kingdom, and the United States). The paper serves as an Annex to the main IMF Working Paper WP/23/114 ‘Quasi-Fiscal Implications of Central Bank Crisis Interventions.’.
Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Accounting --- Industries: Financial Services --- Investments: Bonds --- Investments: General --- Public Finance --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Crisis Management --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Financial statements --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Loans --- Financial institutions --- Bonds --- Securities --- Public debt --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Finance, Public --- Financial instruments --- Debts, Public
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We develop a micro-founded general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to identify pertinent constraints to financial inclusion. We evaluate quantitatively the policy impacts of relaxing each of these constraints separately, and in combination, on GDP and inequality. We focus on three dimensions of financial inclusion: access (determined by the size of participation costs), depth (determined by the size of collateral constraints resulting from limited commitment), and intermediation efficiency (determined by the size of interest rate spreads and default possibilities due to costly monitoring). We take the model to a firm-level data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey for six countries at varying degrees of economic development—three low-income countries (Uganda, Kenya, Mozambique), and three emerging market countries (Malaysia, the Philippines, and Egypt). The results suggest that alleviating different financial frictions have a differential impact across countries, with country-specific characteristics playing a central role in determining the linkages and tradeoffs between inclusion, GDP, inequality, and the distribution of gains and losses.
Financial services industry --- Income distribution --- Gross domestic product --- Computable general equilibrium models. --- Distribution of income --- Income inequality --- Inequality of income --- Distribution (Economic theory) --- Disposable income --- Services, Financial --- Service industries --- CGE models --- Equilibrium models, Computable general --- General equilibrium models, Computable --- Econometric models --- Domestic product, Gross --- GDP --- Gross national product --- Econometric models. --- Developing countries --- Emerging nations --- Fourth World --- Global South --- LDC's --- Least developed countries --- Less developed countries --- Newly industrialized countries --- Newly industrializing countries --- NICs (Newly industrialized countries) --- Third World --- Underdeveloped areas --- Underdeveloped countries --- Economic policy --- Computable general equilibrium models --- E-books --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Financial Services --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: Other --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Labor Demand --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Self-employment --- Credit --- Financial inclusion --- Collateral --- Money --- Financial markets --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Self-employed --- Loans --- Philippines
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