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The Myanmar Economic Monitor (MEM) periodically takes stock of economic developments anddiscusses economic prospects and policy priorities in Myanmar. The MEM draws on available datareported by the Government of Myanmar and additional information collected as part of the WorldBank Group's regular economic monitoring and policy dialogue. The government has carefully navigated a difficult economic and security environment in its first six months in office. In early April 2016, the economy was still recovering from a flood induced supply shock, which, together with low commodity prices, contributed to widening current account and fiscal deficits. In response the government has taken steps to try and maintain fiscal prudence, which have helped ease pressure on monetary growth and import demand.

Economic Forecasting --- Economic Growth --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth

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Linkages between the real and financial sectors in an economy can lead to a buildup of balance sheet mismatches of key entities-corporates, financial institutions, households, and the public sector. Once such imbalances have built up, they can make the economy vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks, whether external or domestic in origin. This paper discusses the key mismatches that can make entities vulnerable to shocks and how such vulnerability can build up during the business cycle. Against this backdrop, the paper then discusses a framework and potential indicators that may be useful to monitor such developments. These indicators are being developed as part of the MFM macro-financial monitoring effort. The paper is organized as follows. Section two provides a brief discussion of the risks associated with these different balance sheet mismatches. Section three discusses how positive shocks in the real sector-such as an upturn in domestic business cycles (which in turn are often instigated or accompanied by external developments such as capital inflows)-can interact with the financial sector and lead to a build-up of balance sheet mismatches. Section four then describes how, once such vulnerability has been built up, a negative shock can lead to a downward spiral of credit contraction and economic downturns. Finally, section five discusses a possible set of indicators for measuring the buildup of vulnerability.

Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Economic Conditions and Volatility --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth

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Mines represent Mongolia's present, while minds - broadly defined to include people and institutions - are its future. Current policies are excessively focused on preserving the mining-driven prosperity at the risk of future stagnation. Such complacency is ill-timed when climate change concerns and the COVID-19 shock require an acceleration of structural transformation. Mongolia faces deep-rooted, interrelated challenges: macroeconomic policy mistakes have amplified external shocks, an oligopolistic ownership structure and limited competition have led firms to become more inward-looking and less inclined to innovate, and gross underutilization of human capital - evident by an unprecedented exodus of young and educated workers to foreign countries - has eroded the foundation of a diversified economy.

Education --- Education For All --- Energy --- Human Capital --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Mining --- Poverty Reduction

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In the years leading to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, Liberia's economic performance was already weak. Since 2014 a series of severe shocks stopped in its track the growth momentum that had been spurred by the Accra Comprehensive Peace Agreement of 2003. The economy was buffeted by the devastating Ebola outbreak, a collapse in iron ore and rubber prices, and the drawdown of United Nations peacekeeping forces. Monetary and exchange rate policy remained tight in 2020, with the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) exercising caution in view of uncertainties about the economic impact from Coronavirus (COVID-19). The cash shortages have made headlines and prompted the CBL to provide explanations. Fiscal space can be increased by improving the efficiency of current expenditure. The government needs first and foremost to reduce the very high level of current spending and strengthen domestic revenue mobilization to generate savings for public investments financing. Liberia should remain prudent on external borrowing in its quest to meet the large investment required by the Pro-poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD). Finally, Liberia should improve the efficiency of its public investment through better planning, project preparation and management, and better alignment with PAPD priorities.

Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Economic Growth --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth

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Dominica continues to be at high risk of debt distress. However, hurricane Maria in September 2017 caused severe social hardship and deterioration of fiscal and external balances, weakening sustainability. In addition, Dominica's debt carrying capacity as measured by the three-year CPIA average declined. Thus, setting public and publicly guaranteed total and external debt on a declining path would require prudent and efficient fiscal policies that safeguard fiscal space for social relief and reconstruction investment. A fiscal consolidation plan is needed after recovery takes hold to sustain reconstruction investment. Donor grant mobilization is key to minimize the debt burden. Main risks to the debt sustainability outlook include sudden stop in citizenship-by-investment (CBI) program revenues, financial instability from weakened balance sheets, and recurrent natural disasters.

Debt markets --- External debt --- Finance and financial sector development --- Macroeconomic management --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Public debt --- Public sector development