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"This paper studies the cycles of nationalization and privatization in resource-rich economies. We discuss available evidence on the drivers and consequences of privatization and nationalization, review the existing literature, and present illustrative case studies. Our main contribution is then to develop a static and dynamic model of the choice between private and national regimes for the ownership of natural resources. In the model, this choice is driven by a basic equality-efficiency tradeoff: national ownership results in more redistribution of income and more equality, but undermines incentives for effort. The resolution of the tradeoff depends on external and domestic conditions that affect the value of social welfare under each regime. This allows us to characterize how external variables - such as the commodity price - and domestic ones - such as the tax system - affect the choice of private vs. national regimes. The analysis therefore identifies the determinants of the observed cycles of privatization and nationalization, and is consistent with a variety of observed phenomena"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance --- Economic Development

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"We examine how financial expansion and contraction cycles affect the broader economy through their impact on 8 real economic sectors in a panel of 28 countries over 1960-2005, paying particular attention to large, or sharp, contractions and magnifying and mitigating factors. Overall, the construction sector is the most responsive to financial sector growth, with a number of others such as government, public utilities, and transportation also exhibiting significant sensitivity to lagged financial sector growth. Sharp fluctuations in the financial sector have asymmetric effects, with the majority of real sectors adversely affected by contractions but not helped by expansions. The adverse effects of financial contractions are transmitted almost exclusively by the financial openness channel with foreign reserves mitigating these effects with a sizeable (10 to 15 times greater) impact during sharp financial contractions. Both effects are magnified during particularly large financial contractions (with coefficients on interaction terms 2 to 3 times greater than when all contractions are considered). Consequent upon a financial contraction, the most severe real sector contractions occur in countries with high financial openness, relative predominance of construction, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail sectors, and low international reserves. Finally, we find that abrupt financial contractions are more likely to follow periods of accelerated growth, indicative of "up by the stairs, down by the elevator dynamics.""--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.

Economic Integration --- Foreign Exchange --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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This paper examines the relevance of PPP, the adjustment channel of real exchange rate and the predictability of the movement in nominal exchange rate by studying the behavior of yen/DM exchange rate, using cointegration method. Results support PPP and find that the real exchange rate is mean-reverting. The change in the nominal exchange rate exhibits significant auto-regressive property. These findings imply that movements in the nominal yen/DM exchange rate is actually predictable. The error-correction model and a simple first order autoregressive model both outperform the random walk model in out-of-sample forecasting.

Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Purchasing power parity --- Real exchange rates --- Wholesale price indexes --- Export price indexes --- Prices --- Price indexes --- United States

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An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT messages on letters of credit, together with crude oil prices and new export orders of manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on machine-learning algorithms, confirming the linear relationship between trade and its financing through letters of credit.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China --- Business and Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Trade: General --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Oil prices --- Imports --- Exports --- Trade finance --- Trade balance --- International trade --- International finance --- Balance of trade

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This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms shows significant non-linearities between trade and its determinants during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China --- Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Trade: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Trade: General --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Imports --- International trade --- Exports --- Credit --- Money --- Trade finance --- Trade balance --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- International finance --- Balance of trade