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medicine --- public health --- biomedicine --- low income countries --- social science --- environmental science
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The digitalization and development of new financial products accelerated by Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) crisis will transform drastically the financial sector of all countries in the following years. Consequently, this will also lead to the transformation of supervisory processes, which can be greatly benefit from the support of supervisory technology (SupTech) tools. Even though there is a great potential for SupTech tools to support and enhance the supervisory processes, many supervisors are still struggling to find the right balance between functionalities, costs, and implementation approaches of SupTech tools. To support financial sector supervisors, forge their understanding and provide practical information on how to implement SupTech tools, this paper provides a step-by-step guide and use cases. The paper presents the main challenges faced by the supervisory authorities, provides different governance models used globally, and guidelines for the development of the SupTech strategy and its implementation for prudential and anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML and CFT) use cases.
Access to Finance --- Data Quality --- E-Finance and E-Security --- Finance and Development --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Low-Income Countries
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This paper introduces a new data set on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 low-income countries over the period 1971-2011. It characterizes the recent trends regarding the do-mestic public debt of low-income countries and explores the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. It is also observed that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term in-struments over time and that maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the central bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.
Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Debt Markets --- Debt Structure --- Domestic Debt --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- International Economics & Trade --- Low-Income Countries, Hipcs --- Private Sector Development
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This research analyzes the success of the infrastructure projects financed by the World Bank, focusing on the causal link between the quality of project implementation and its outcome. The results show that the success of infrastructure projects depends fundamentally on the quality of implementation. Although bad implementation can harm structurally solid projects, good implementation cannot make structurally weak projects successful. This leads to the conclusion that governance and selection of well-designed projects are essential for success and, in order to improve project outcomes, multilateral development banks may need to align their incentives toward this objective and invest more in governance and capacity building.
World Bank --- Aid Effectiveness --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Debt Markets --- Emerging Markets --- Housing & Human Habitats --- Infrastructure --- Infrastructure Economics and Finance --- Low-Income Countries --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Multilateral Development Banks --- Project Design --- Public Investment --- Public Sector Corruption & Anticorruption Measures
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Conventional assessments of debt sustainability in low income countries are hampered by poor data and weaknesses in methodology. In particular, the standard International Monetary Fund-World bank debt sustainability framework relies on questionable empirical assumptions: its baseline projections ignore statistical uncertainty, and its stress tests, which are performed as robustness checks, lack a clear economic interpretation and ignore the interdependence between the relevant macroeconomic variables. This paper proposes to alleviate these problems by pooling data from many countries and estimating the shocks and macroeconomic interdependence faced by a generic, low income country. The paper estimates a panel vector autoregression to trace the evolution of the determinants of debt, and performs simulations to calculate statistics on external debt for individual countries. The methodology allows for the value of the determinants of debt to differ across countries in the long run, and for additional heterogeneity through country-specific exogenous variables. Results in this paper suggest that ignoring the uncertainty and interdependence of macroeconomic variables leads to biases in projected debt trajectories, and consequently, the assessment of debt sustainability.
Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Bootstrap --- Debt Markets --- Debt sustainability --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Low income countries --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Panel vector autoregression
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This paper introduces a new data set on the stock and structure of domestic debt in 36 low-income countries over the period 1971-2011. It characterizes the recent trends regarding the do-mestic public debt of low-income countries and explores the relevance of different arguments put forward on the benefits and costs of government borrowing in local public debt markets. The main stylized fact emerging from the data is the increase in domestic government debt since 1996. It is also observed that poor countries have been able to increase the share of long-term in-struments over time and that maturity lengthening went together with a decrease in borrowing costs. However, the concentration of the investor base, mainly dominated by commercial banks and the central bank, may crowd out lending to the private sector.
Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Debt Markets --- Debt Structure --- Domestic Debt --- Emerging Markets --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- International Economics & Trade --- Low-Income Countries, Hipcs --- Private Sector Development
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Debt vulnerabilities in low-income countries have increased substantially in recent years. Since 2013, median government debt has risen by about 20 percentage points of gross domestic product and increasingly comes from non-concessional and private sources. As a result, in most low-income countries, interest payments are absorbing an increasing proportion of government revenues. The majority of low-income countries would be hard hit by a sudden weakening in trade or global financial conditions given high levels of external debt, lack of fiscal space, low foreign currency reserves, and undiversified exports. A proactive effort to identify and reduce debt-related vulnerabilities is a priority for many low-income countries. Policy makers should focus on mobilizing domestic resources, improving debt transparency, and strengthening debt management practices. These efforts should be complemented by measures to strengthen fiscal frameworks, improve the efficiency of public expenditures and public investment management, and develop domestic financial systems.
Debt --- Debt Management --- Debt Markets --- Debt Vulnerabilities --- External Debt --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Markets --- Interest Rates --- International Economics and Trade --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Low-Income Countries --- Macroeconomic Management --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Non-Concessional Debt
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A. W. Clausen, President of the World Bank Group, discusses the major economic challenges confronting the interdependent world, the role transnationals can play in helping to overcome them, and the effects of the rampant and stubborn inflation that has characterized the past dozen years.
Business in Development --- Competition --- Corporations --- Developing Countries --- Economic Development --- Global Economy --- Host Countries --- Inflation --- Loans --- Low-Income Countries --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Middle-Income Countries --- Natural Resources --- Private Sector Development --- Risk --- Trade --- Trade Liberalization
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This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Divers Of Inflation --- Emerging And Developing Economies --- Exchange-Rate Pass Through --- Food Price --- Globalization --- Inflation --- Inflation And Poverty --- Inflation Expectations --- Inflation Sychronization --- Low-Income Countries --- Monetary Policy --- Oil Price Shock --- Developing countries.
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This research analyzes the success of the infrastructure projects financed by the World Bank, focusing on the causal link between the quality of project implementation and its outcome. The results show that the success of infrastructure projects depends fundamentally on the quality of implementation. Although bad implementation can harm structurally solid projects, good implementation cannot make structurally weak projects successful. This leads to the conclusion that governance and selection of well-designed projects are essential for success and, in order to improve project outcomes, multilateral development banks may need to align their incentives toward this objective and invest more in governance and capacity building.
World Bank --- Aid Effectiveness --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Debt Markets --- Emerging Markets --- Housing & Human Habitats --- Infrastructure --- Infrastructure Economics and Finance --- Low-Income Countries --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Multilateral Development Banks --- Project Design --- Public Investment --- Public Sector Corruption & Anticorruption Measures
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