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Long-Term Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh
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Year: 2017 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Bangladesh has achieved robust economic growth over the past 10 years, with real GDP growing by more than 6 percent on average each year. This paper investigates whether the country will be able to maintain such high levels of growth going forward. A simple growth model calibrated to the Bangladesh economy is used to analyze various growth scenarios. The main finding of the paper is that it is crucial for the country to focus on reforms to raise total factor productivity (TFP) growth, to sustain the high real GDP growth seen in the recent past. The country will fail to achieve high growth in absence of strong TFP growth despite meeting the levels of investment as outlined in the Seventh Five Year Plan. The model is also used to gain insights on government debt sustainability given different growth scenarios. The analysis highlights the significance of meeting revenue targets in maintaining sustainability, considering the planned expansion in expenditures.


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South Asia Economic Focus : Shifting Gears; Digitization and Services-Led Development.
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ISBN: 1464817979 Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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South Asia region's economies continue on a recovery path, with production and export having recovered to pre-COVID trend levels. But the recovery has been uneven across countries and sectors, and significant risks exist that could jeopardize short-term recovery and long-term growth. Over the short-term, low vaccination rates in most countries in the region make the population and economies vulnerable to future COVID waves and lockdowns; supply shortages due to global supply bottlenecks continue to put upward pressure on (food) inflation, especially after consumption recovers. Over the long-term, the region faces long-lasting scarring effects from the pandemic. The emergence of a new services economy creates an opportunity for the region to shift gears and to move towards a services-led development model. The importance of services has been increasing over time and got a further boost during the response to the COVID pandemic, when digital technologies became critical. This new services economy comprises not just the ICT sector, but also business and professional services that are increasingly critical inputs into manufacturing and other sectors, and digital platforms that are creating new markets. It can become the driver of development in South Asia because 1) Services are increasingly tradable and also represent a large part of value added incorporated in the exports of goods. 2) Services firms can drive productivity growth because of innovations that make their own products and other industries more efficient 3) The services sector also generates jobs and helps upgrading skills through on-the-job training. To unleash the potential of the new services economy, policy makers should rethink regulations and establish new institutions to enable 1) competition and innovation 2) increased labor mobility and up-skilling, through education and on-the job training; 3) the absorption of new services by firms and households. Governments in South Asia are addressing these new realities, but they face major challenges. With countries worldwide struggling to find an optimal institutional environment for the new services sectors, a good option for South Asia is to experiment with regulatory sandboxes.


Book
Go long : why long-term thinking is your best short-term strategy
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ISBN: 1613630891 Year: 2018 Publisher: Philadelphia, PA : Wharton Digital Press,

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800-CEO-READ BESTSELLERFeatured in Fortune, Harvard Business Review, and Entrepreneur, Go Long is "mandatory reading for the CEOs and boards of all public companies," according to David M. Rubenstein, co-founder and co-executive chairman of The Carlyle Group.The lifespans of companies are growing shorter each day. Why do some companies thrive and grow, while others fail?Inspired by the CEO Academy, the annual off-the-record gathering of chief executives organized by the authors, reveals how some of the world's most prominent business leaders resisted short-term pressures to successfully manage their organizations for the long term, and in turn, aim to create more jobs, more satisfied customers, and more shareholder wealth.In Go Long, authors Dennis Carey, Brian Dumaine, Michael Useem, and Rodney Zemmel take you behind the scenes to witness the business decisions that are enabling leading organizations to outsmart and outlast the competition.Why did CEO Larry Merlo allow CVS to take a $2 billion hit—on purpose? How did former CEO Alan Mulally maneuver Ford's $48 billion turnaround? How did director Maggie Wilderotter and her fellow board members engage top management to embark on an unusual exercise to help Hewlett Packard Enterprise build a long-term strategy? Why did former CEO Paul Polman turn back to Unilever's original mission of leading with a purpose to fuel profits? How did former Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg convince his investors and board to allow him to make a $150 billion bet? How did former CEO George Buckley find a way to address investor calls for 3M to spend less on research and development while still finding a way to innovate? These leaders argue that a short-term mindset might satisfy investors for this quarter or next, but there's a heavy price to be paid. Instead, they argue, long-term thinking is your best short-term strategy."Considering the enormous harm that short-term investing has done not only to companies, but to countries as well, this book should be required reading in boardrooms everywhere. A concise, powerful call for responsible, long-term business practices."—Kirkus Reviews"A must-read. If you're looking to build or lead a company that grows consistently not just from quarter to quarter, but year to year … this book is for you."—Indra Nooyi, Board of Directors, Amazon; former Chairman and CEO, PepsiCo, Inc.


Book
Corporate valuation using the free cash flow method applied to Coca-Cola
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ISBN: 1631570307 Year: 2015 Publisher: New York, New York (222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017) : Business Expert Press,

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The value of a corporation is the discounted present value of future cash flows provided by the company to the shareholders. The valuation process requires that the corporate financial decision maker determine the future free cash flow to equity, the short-term growth rate, the long-term growth rate, and the required rate of return based on market beta. The objective of this book is to provide a template for demonstrating corporate valuation using a real company--Coca-Cola. The data used in this book comes from the financial statements of Coca-Cola available on EDGAR. Other data are from SBBI, Yahoo! Finance, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation, Market Results for 1926-2010, 2011 Yearbook, Classic Edition, Morningstar, and US Department of the Treasury.


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Assessing the Effect of Public Capital on Growth : An Extension of the World Bank Long-Term Growth Model
Authors: ---
Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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To analyze the effect of an increase in the quantity or quality of public investment on growth, this paper extends the World Bank's Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM), by separating the total capital stock into public and private portions, with the former adjusted for its quality. The paper presents the Long-Term Growth Model Public Capital Extension (LTGM-PC) and accompanying freely downloadable Excel-based tool. It also constructs a new Infrastructure Efficiency Index (IEI), by combining quality indicators for power, roads, and water as a cardinal measure of the quality of public capital in each country. In the model, public investment generates a larger boost to growth if existing stocks of public capital are low, or if public capital is particularly important in the production function. Through the lens of the model and utilizing newly-collated cross-country data, the paper presents three stylized facts and some related policy implications. First, the measured public capital stock is roughly constant as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) across income groups, which implies that the returns to new public investment, and its effect on growth, are roughly constant across development levels. Second, developing countries are relatively short of private capital, which means that private investment provides the largest boost to growth in low-income countries. Third, low-income countries have the lowest quality of public capital and the lowest efficient public capital stock as a share of gross domestic product. Although this does not affect the returns to public investment, it means that improving the efficiency of public investment has a sizable effect on growth in low-income countries. Quantitatively, a permanent 1ppt GDP increase in public investment boosts growth by around 0.1-0.2ppts over the following few years (depending on the parameters), with the effect declining over time.


Book
Living with China : Finding a Middle Power's Middle Way
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ISBN: 1487530978 148753096X Year: 2019 Publisher: Toronto : University of Toronto Press,

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Living with China makes the case to Canadians to adopt a forward-looking China strategy that recognizes forty years of successful reforms as foundations of President Xi Jinping's ambitious long game to 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People's Republic. Looking forward, market reforms will be key drivers of China's long-term growth yet Chinese policy is ambivalent about the potential dangers of spontaneous market forces undermining the Party's central goal of political stability. These tensions are pointed out in the book's early chapters that outline what Canadians need to know about the Chinese economy. Getting the foundations right by growing at sustainable rates and dealing with unproductive state-owned enterprises; promoting innovation as a future growth driver and modernizing the fragile financial system are all works in progress where tensions between 'plan' and market forces are apparent. Two chapters also examine how Chinese enterprises are going global through direct investments and participation in the dynamic but troubled Belt and Road Initiative. Urging Canadians to up their game with a China strategy takes place in an environment of rising tensions over trade and technology, evident in negotiating the 'new NAFTA' with Americans and doing business with Huawei, the China-based telecommunication giant. Living with China is one of the first comprehensive volumes to be published in Canada on a forward-looking Canada-China strategy. The recommended strategy includes more leadership from top officials, building a Canada brand, strengthening our international human capital, addressing security issues and negotiating bilateral trade and investment liberalization. The book also points out the importance of addressing such key issues as intellectual property protection, cybersecurity and discussing value differences such as respect for individual rights.


Book
Malaysia's Economic Growth and Transition to High Income : An Application of the World Bank Long Term Growth Model (LTGM)
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper studies economic growth in Malaysia, with the purpose of assessing the potential to attain the status and characteristics of a high-income country. Future economic growth is simulated under a business-as-usual baseline, where the growth drivers follow their historical or recent trends, and under different scenarios of reform, using the World Bank Long-Term Growth Model (LTGM). Under the business-as-usual baseline, Malaysia's GDP growth is expected to decline from 4.5 to 2.0 percent over the next three decades, following the country's transition to high income in 2024 (which might be delayed due to the effects of COVID-19). This decline is partly due to demographics, but also a declining marginal product of private capital and slowing growth rates of total factor productivity and human capital. Strong reforms are required for Malaysia to grow beyond what is expected based on historical trends, especially for human capital, female labor force participation, and total factor productivity. In the strong reform scenario, based on growth drivers achieving a target corresponding to the 75th percentile of high-income countries, GDP growth is expected to have a substantially higher trajectory, reaching 3.6 percent by 2050.


Book
Bright Lights, Big Cities : Measuring National and Subnational Economic Growth in Africa from Outer Space, with an Application to Kenya and Rwanda.
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper uses the night lights (satellite imagery from outer space) approach to estimate growth in and levels of subnational 2013 gross domestic product for 47 counties in Kenya and 30 districts in Rwanda. Estimating subnational gross domestic product is consequential for three reasons. First, there is strong policy interest in how growth can occur in different parts of countries, so that communities can share in national prosperity and not get left behind. Second, subnational entities want to understand how they stack up against their neighbors and competitors, and how much they contribute to national gross domestic product. Third, such information could help private investors to assess where to undertake investments. Using night lights has the advantage of seeing a new and more accurate estimation of informal activity, and being independent of official data. However, the approach may underestimate economic activity in sectors that are largely unlit notably agriculture. For Kenya, the results of the analysis affirm that Nairobi County is the largest contributor to national gross domestic product. However, at 13 percent, this contribution is lower than commonly thought. For Rwanda, the three districts of Kigali account for 40 percent of national gross domestic product, underscoring the lower scale of economic activity in the rest of the country. To get a composite picture of subnational economic activity, especially in the context of rapidly improving official statistics in Kenya and Rwanda, it is important to estimate subnational gross domestic product using standard approaches (production, expenditure, income).


Book
Bright Lights, Big Cities : Measuring National and Subnational Economic Growth in Africa from Outer Space, with an Application to Kenya and Rwanda.
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper uses the night lights (satellite imagery from outer space) approach to estimate growth in and levels of subnational 2013 gross domestic product for 47 counties in Kenya and 30 districts in Rwanda. Estimating subnational gross domestic product is consequential for three reasons. First, there is strong policy interest in how growth can occur in different parts of countries, so that communities can share in national prosperity and not get left behind. Second, subnational entities want to understand how they stack up against their neighbors and competitors, and how much they contribute to national gross domestic product. Third, such information could help private investors to assess where to undertake investments. Using night lights has the advantage of seeing a new and more accurate estimation of informal activity, and being independent of official data. However, the approach may underestimate economic activity in sectors that are largely unlit notably agriculture. For Kenya, the results of the analysis affirm that Nairobi County is the largest contributor to national gross domestic product. However, at 13 percent, this contribution is lower than commonly thought. For Rwanda, the three districts of Kigali account for 40 percent of national gross domestic product, underscoring the lower scale of economic activity in the rest of the country. To get a composite picture of subnational economic activity, especially in the context of rapidly improving official statistics in Kenya and Rwanda, it is important to estimate subnational gross domestic product using standard approaches (production, expenditure, income).


Book
Pricing the Planet's Future
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ISBN: 1283646188 1400845408 9781400845408 9780691148762 0691148767 Year: 2012 Publisher: Princeton, NJ

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Our path of economic development has generated a growing list of environmental problems including the disposal of nuclear waste, exhaustion of natural resources, loss of biodiversity, climate change, and polluted land, air, and water. All these environmental problems raise the crucial challenge of determining what we should and should not do for future generations. It is also central to other policy debates, including, for example, the appropriate level of public debt, investment in public infrastructure, investment in education, and the level of funding for pension benefits and for research and development. Today, the judge, the citizen, the politician, and the entrepreneur are concerned with the sustainability of our development. The objective of Pricing the Planet's Future is to provide a simple framework to organize the debate on what we should do for the future. A key element of analysis by economists is the discount rate--the minimum rate of return required from an investment project to make it desirable to implement. Christian Gollier outlines the basic theory of the discount rate and the various arguments that favor using a smaller discount rate for more distant cash flows. With principles that can be applied to many policy areas, Pricing the Planet's Future offers an ideal framework for dynamic problems and decision making.

Keywords

Investments --- Discount. --- discount rate --- consumption --- econometrics --- economic indicator --- economic growth --- majandusnäitaja --- ekonominis rodiklis --- economische indicator --- indicatore economico --- táscaire eacnamaíoch --- indicador económico --- indicator economic --- економски показател --- икономически индикатор --- hospodársky ukazovateľ --- gospodarski kazalec --- ekonomikas rādītājs --- економски показатељ --- ekonomski pokazatelj --- hospodářský ukazatel --- gazdasági mutató --- οικονομικός δείκτης --- wskaźnik gospodarczy --- økonomisk indikator --- tregues ekonomik --- Wirtschaftsindikator --- indikatur ekonomiku --- ekonomisk indikator --- indicateur économique --- taloudellinen indikaattori --- ekonomický ukazatel --- економски индикатор --- indice economico --- ekonometrie --- економетрија --- econometría --- ökonomeetria --- econometrie --- økonometri --- οικονομετρία --- економетрия --- econometria --- économétrie --- ekonometri --- ekonometria --- ökonometria --- ekonometrija --- Ökonometrie --- економетричар --- tarbimine --- konsum --- κατανάλωση --- consommation --- потрошувачка --- ídiú --- forbrug --- consumo --- Verbrauch --- spotreba --- konsumtion --- konsumpcja --- kulutus --- patēriņš --- consum --- spotřeba --- vartojimas --- потрошња --- потребление --- verbruik --- potrošnja --- fogyasztás --- ídiú breosla --- sottoconsumo --- åtgång --- consumptie --- förbrukning --- normë e skontimit --- есконтна стопа --- diskontní sazba --- discontovoet --- taxa de desconto --- diskontná sadzba --- diskonttokorko --- taux d'escompte --- diskonto norma --- diskontna stopnja --- diskonto --- tasso di sconto --- diskontomäär --- дисконтна стапка --- leszámítolási kamatláb --- Diskontsatz --- stopa dyskontowa --- diskontosats --- tipo de descuento --- rată a scontului --- rata ta' skont --- diskonta likme --- eskontna stopa --- ráta lascaine --- сконтов лихвен процент --- προεξοφλητικό επιτόκιο --- Abzinsungssatz --- официјална дисконтна стапка --- laskentakorko --- есконтна каматна стопа --- saggio di sconto --- diskontna stopa --- tasso ufficiale di sconto --- normë e skontuar e interesit --- есконтна стапка --- diskonteringsrente --- Diskontzinssatz --- actualiseringspercentage --- stopa dyskonta --- základná úroková sadzba --- дисконтов лихвен процент --- diszkontráta --- diszkontláb --- normë skontimi --- rate of discount --- rată de actualizare --- taxa de atualização --- diskonteringsränta --- tasso di attualizzazione --- kalkulationsrente --- προεξοφλητικός τόκος --- discount interest rate --- eskontna obrestna mera --- disconteringsfactor --- tipo de actualización --- taux d'actualisation --- Wirtschaftswachstum --- ekonomisk tillväxt --- ūkio augimas --- gospodarska rast --- crescimento económico --- taloudellinen kasvu --- wzrost gospodarczy --- hospodářský růst --- majanduskasv --- croissance économique --- tkabbir ekonomiku --- rritje ekonomike --- economische groei --- creștere economică --- crescita economica --- икономически растеж --- привредни раст --- fás eacnamaíoch --- hospodársky rast --- crecimiento económico --- ekonomski rast --- økonomisk vækst --- економски раст --- ekonomikas pieaugums --- οικονομική μεγέθυνση --- gazdasági növekedés --- vækstrate --- zero growth --- miera rastu --- expansiune economică --- prieaugis --- pieauguma temps --- creștere zero --- nulový rast --- boom economico --- нулти раст --- crecimiento cero --- espansione economica --- talouden laajentuminen --- növekedés üteme --- nullkasv --- nulvækst --- kasvuvauhti --- ekonomisk expansion --- οικονομική επέκταση --- nulgroei --- nollakasvu --- nulti rast --- Nullwachstum --- ritmo de crecimiento --- növekedés mértéke --- μηδενική μεγέθυνση --- hospodársky vzostup --- tillväxttakt --- ρυθμός οικονομικής μεγέθυνσης --- kasvumäär --- nulles pieaugums --- míra hospodářského růstu --- nolltillväxt --- taxa de crescimento --- ekonomický růst --- nulinis augimas --- growth rate --- crescita zero --- gospodarski rast --- економска експанзија --- expansão económica --- stopa rasta --- økonomisk ekspansion --- rată de creștere economică --- croissance zéro --- majanduse laienemine --- expansion économique --- tasa de crecimiento --- zgjerim ekonomik --- economische expansie --- ekonomická expanze --- rritje zero --- augimo norma --- taux de croissance --- economic expansion --- nulový růst --- crescimento zero --- Wachstumsrate --- οικονομική αύξηση --- Wirtschaftsexpansion --- tasso di crescita --- zéró növekedés --- стапка на раст --- Investing --- Investment management --- Portfolio --- Finance --- Disinvestment --- Loans --- Saving and investment --- Speculation --- Bank discount --- Discount rate --- Social aspects. --- Discount --- Social aspects --- E-books --- tomhaltas --- eacnaiméadracht --- CBA. --- Markov switches. --- NPV. --- Poisson two-armed bandit. --- Ramsey rule. --- Weitzman argument. --- actual behaviors. --- adaptations. --- alternative decision criteria. --- backward induction. --- biodiversity. --- canonical models. --- capital. --- classical discounting approach. --- climate change. --- competitive economy. --- concordance. --- consumption. --- cost-benefit analysis. --- development sustainability. --- discount rate. --- discounted expected utility. --- ecological discount rate. --- ecological environments. --- economic depressions. --- economic development. --- economic growth rates. --- economic growth. --- economic reversions. --- economics. --- efficient discount rates. --- environmental assets. --- environmental policies. --- environmental quality. --- environmental risks. --- extreme events. --- fat tails. --- future environmental damages. --- future planning. --- inequalities. --- inequality aversion. --- interest rate. --- intergenerational habit formation. --- intergenerational welfare. --- intertemporal inequalities. --- investment opportunities. --- investment project selection. --- liquidity. --- long-term credit contracts. --- long-term growth. --- long-term risk. --- macroeconomic effects. --- maxmin ambiguity aversion. --- mean-reversion. --- natural resource exhaustion. --- net benefit. --- net future value. --- net present value. --- net present values. --- new investment opportunities. --- non-marginal projects. --- non-monetary benefits. --- nuclear waste disposal. --- option value. --- parametric uncertainty. --- pollution. --- positive discount rate. --- possible investments. --- precautionary effect. --- project valuation. --- public debt. --- public infrastructure. --- public policies. --- radical economic transformations. --- random walk. --- recursive expected utility. --- risk aversion. --- risk management. --- risk preferences. --- risk premium. --- risk. --- risky assets. --- risky projects. --- safe investment projects. --- safe investment. --- safe projects. --- saving. --- smooth ambiguity aversion. --- social welfare. --- stochastic dominance approach. --- substitution. --- term structure. --- theory of investment. --- two-period model. --- uncertain cash flows. --- uncertain economic growth. --- uncertain projects. --- uncertainty. --- unequal society. --- utility function. --- wealth inequalities.

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