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This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.

Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Local currency debt --- Foreign currency debt --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Public debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- United States

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Although the worldwide growth in dollarization of bank deposits has recently slowed, it has already reached very high levels in dozens of countries. Building on earlier findings that allowed the main cross-country variations in the share of dollars to be explained in terms of national policies and institutions, this paper turns to analysis of short-run variations, particularly the response of dollarization to exchange rate changes, which is shown to be too small to warrant "fear of floating" by dollarized economies. But high dollarization is shown to increase the risk of depreciation and even suspension, as indicated by interest rate spreads. While specific policy is needed to deal with the risks associated with dollarization, the underlying causes of unwanted dollarization should also be tackled.

Bank Deposits --- Bank Policy --- Central Bank --- Central Banks --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Currency --- Debt Markets --- Depositors --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Exchange Rate --- Exchange Rate Movements --- Exchange Rates --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Holding --- Inflation --- Interest --- Interest Rate --- Interest Rate Spreads --- Lender --- Lender of Last Resort --- Local Currency --- Options --- Private Sector Development --- Share

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Limited fiscal space limits Djibouti's ability to meet the Millennium Development Goals and improve the living conditions of its population. Djibouti's fiscal structure is unique in that almost 70 percent of government revenue is denominated in foreign currency (import taxes, foreign aid grants, and military revenue) while over 50 percent of government expenditure is denominated in local currency (wages, salaries, and social transfers). Djibouti's economic structure is also unusual in that merchandise exports of local origin are insignificant, and the country relies heavily on imported goods (food, medicines, consumer and capital goods). A currency devaluation, by reducing real wages, could potentially generate additional fiscal space that would help meet Djibouti's fundamental development goals. Using macroeconomic and household level data, the authors quantify the impact of a devaluation of the nominal exchange rate on fiscal savings, real public sector wages, real income, and poverty under various hypothetical scenarios of exchange-rate pass-through and magnitude of devaluation. They find that a currency devaluation could generate fiscal savings in the short-term, but it would have an adverse effect on poverty and income distribution. A 30 percent nominal exchange rate devaluation could generate fiscal savings amounting between 3 and 7 percent of GDP. At the same time, a 30 percent nominal devaluation could cause nearly a fifth of the poorest households to fall below the extreme poverty line and pull the same fraction of upper middle-income households below the national poverty line. The authors also find that currency devaluation could generate net fiscal savings even after accounting for the additional social transfers needed to compensate the poor for their real income loss. However, the absence of formal social safety nets limits the government's readiness to provide well-targeted and timely social transfers to the poor.

Accounting --- Bank Policy --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Currency Devaluation --- Debt Markets --- Devaluation --- Developing Countries --- Economic Development --- Economic Stabilization --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exchange --- Exchange Rate --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Literacy --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Foreign Currency --- Goods --- Government Expenditure --- Government Revenue --- Labor Markets --- Local Currency --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Development --- Real Exchange Rate --- Revenues --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Safety Nets --- Taxes

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A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuanAt first glance, the modern history of the global economic system seems to support the long-held view that the leading world power's currency-the British pound, the U.S. dollar, and perhaps someday the Chinese yuan-invariably dominates international trade and finance. In How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists provide a reassessment of this history and the theories behind the conventional wisdom.Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries, and marshaling extensive new data to test established theories of how global currencies work, Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia Chiţu argue for a new view, in which several national monies can share international currency status, and their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how changes in technology and in the structure of international trade and finance have reshaped the landscape of international currencies so that several international financial standards can coexist. They show that multiple international and reserve currencies have in fact coexisted in the pastupending the traditional view of the British pound's dominance prior to 1945 and the U.S. dollar's dominance more recently.Looking forward, the book tackles the implications of this new framework for major questions facing the future of the international monetary system, from whether the euro and the Chinese yuan might address their respective challenges and perhaps rival the dollar, to how increased currency competition might affect global financial stability.

Valute. --- Money. --- International finance. --- Account (accountancy). --- Annual report. --- Asset. --- Balance sheet. --- Bank for International Settlements. --- Bank of England. --- Bank of Japan. --- Bank rate. --- Bank. --- Barry Eichengreen. --- Bond (finance). --- Bretton Woods system. --- Canadian dollar. --- Capital control. --- Capital market. --- Central bank. --- Commodity. --- Credibility. --- Credit (finance). --- Credit risk. --- Currency Internationalization. --- Currency competition. --- Currency swap. --- Currency. --- Current account. --- Customer. --- Debt. --- Deflation. --- Determinant. --- Deutsche Mark. --- Devaluation. --- Discounts and allowances. --- Economics. --- Economist. --- Economy. --- Endogeneity (econometrics). --- Estimation. --- European Central Bank. --- Exchange rate. --- Export. --- Federal Reserve Bank. --- Fiat money. --- Finance. --- Financial crisis. --- Financial deepening. --- Financial institution. --- Financial transaction. --- Foreign Exchange Reserves. --- Foreign direct investment. --- Foreign exchange market. --- French franc. --- Gold reserve. --- Gold standard. --- Government debt. --- Gross world product. --- Import. --- Inflation. --- Institution. --- Interest rate. --- International Monetary Fund. --- International monetary systems. --- International trade. --- Internationalization. --- Investment. --- Investor. --- Invoice. --- Issuer. --- Liberalization. --- Local currency. --- Market capitalization. --- Market liquidity. --- Market participant. --- Monetary policy. --- Money market. --- Natural monopoly. --- Network effect. --- Payment. --- Pound sterling. --- Receipt. --- Renminbi. --- Reserve currency. --- Securitization. --- Security (finance). --- Sterling area. --- Store of value. --- Supply (economics). --- Swiss franc. --- Tax. --- Trade credit. --- Treasury Bill. --- U.S. Bancorp. --- Underwriting. --- Unit of account. --- United States dollar. --- Valuation effects. --- World War II. --- World currency. --- World economy.