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This paper presents a new dataset of comparable employment indicators for South Asian countries, constructed from more than 60 primary data sources from 2001 to 2017. The main contribution of the paper is to curate the information provided by individual respondents to censuses and surveys, in a way that is consistent across countries and over time. The usefulness of the dataset is illustrated by conducting a rigorous assessment of employment characteristics, of changes in employment over time, and of the short- and long-run relationship between economic growth and employment growth in South Asia. The exercise shows that agriculture still employs the majority of the working-age population across the region and, except in Sri Lanka, more than half of the employment is self-employment or unpaid family work. The paper also shows that employment rates are generally decreasing in South Asia, and that in some countries female employment rates are falling rapidly. Seasonal growth patterns are shown to affect the composition of employment, while non-seasonal changes in short-run growth affect the overall level of employment. The paper estimates that, in the long run, one percentage point growth of gross domestic product has led on average to a 0.34 percent increase in employment.
Data Harmonization --- Employment --- Labor Force Surveys --- Labor Markets --- Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor
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Obtaining consistent estimates on poverty over time as well as monitoring poverty trends on a timely basis is a priority concern for policy makers. However, these objectives are not readily achieved in practice when household consumption data are neither frequently collected, nor constructed using consistent and transparent criteria. This paper develops a formal framework for survey-to-survey poverty imputation in an attempt to overcome these obstacles, and to elevate the discussion of these methods beyond the largely ad-hoc efforts in the existing literature. The framework introduced here imposes few restrictive assumptions, works with simple variance formulas, provides guidance on the selection of control variables for model building, and can be generally applied to imputation either from one survey to another survey with the same design, or to another survey with a different design. Empirical results analyzing the Household Expenditure and Income Survey and the Unemployment and Employment Survey in Jordan are quite encouraging, with imputation-based poverty estimates closely tracking the direct estimates of poverty.
Consumption --- E-Business --- Household Surveys --- Imputation --- Labor Force Surveys --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Science and Technology Development --- Statistical & Mathematical Sciences
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Employment and earnings statistics are the key link between the size and structure of economic growth and the welfare of households, which is the ultimate goal of development policy, so it is important to monitor employment outcomes consistently. A cursory review of employment data for low-income Sub-Saharan African countries shows both large gaps and improbable variation within countries over time and among countries, suggesting that low quality data are routinely reported by national statistics offices. Unfortunately, policies are formed and projects developed and implemented on the basis of these statistics. Therefore, errors of measurement could be having profound implications on the strategic priorities and policies of a country. This paper explains the improbable results observed by using data from Uganda, where the labor module contains variation both within and across surveys, to show the sensitivity of employment outcomes to survey methodology. It finds that estimates of employment outcomes are unreliable if the questionnaire did not use screening questions, as labor force participation will be underestimated. Likewise, surveys that use a seven-day recall period underestimate or potentially misrepresent employment outcomes, owing to seasonality and multiple jobs. Common multivariate analysis applied on household survey data will be affected, as the errors in measurement in the dependent and independent variables will be correlated. Corrections to reduce measurement bias in existing data are tested with the survey data; none are found to be completely satisfactory. The paper concludes that there is a knowledge gap about employment outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa that will continue unless collection techniques improve.
Educational Sciences --- Employment --- Gender and employment --- Labor force participation --- Labor force surveys --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Poverty Monitoring & Analysis --- Poverty Reduction --- Tertiary Education --- Sub-Saharan Africa
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Since the last Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC) meeting, the PA has continued to strengthen its institutions, delivering public services and promoting reforms that many existing states struggle with. The quality of its public financial management (PFM) has further improved. Education and health in the West Bank and Gaza (WB&G) are highly developed, comparing favorably to the performance of countries in the region as well as globally. Ultimately, sustainable economic growth in WB&G can only be underpinned by a vibrant private sector. The latter will not rebound significantly while Israeli restrictions on access to natural resources and markets remain in place, and as long as investors are deterred by the increased cost of business associated with the closure regime. Education and health indicators for WB&G are impressive and reflect extensive coverage of the population, but a focus on improving the quality of these services remains warranted. Similarly, education investments take time to mature. While the PA is already implementing an education sector plan that highlights the importance of improving the quality of education, the relevance of graduates' skills remains an area requiring further attention. This report will therefore reflect on recent growth trends but also on the future trade regime and employability of the WB&G labor force.
Access to Education --- Access to Finance --- Accounting --- Audits --- Corruption --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Domestic Debt --- Early Childhood --- Economic Development --- Employment --- Entrepreneurs --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Management --- Fiscal Policy --- Gender --- Gross Domestic Product --- Human Capital --- Human Rights --- Interest Rates --- Investment Climate --- Job Creation --- Labor Force Surveys --- Labor Market --- Labor Markets --- Labor Policies --- Legal Framework --- Legal Reform --- Legislation --- Municipalities --- Natural Resources --- Nutrition --- On-the-Job Training --- Private Sector --- Productivity --- Risk Management --- Social Protections and Labor --- Telecommunications --- Transparency --- Unemployment --- Valuations --- Wages --- Water Supply --- Younger Workers
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The economic rebound in recent quarters has been stronger than expected and the economy is showing signs of overheating. These signs are show up in rising inflation, especially of those goods and services which are in strong demand, but cannot easily be imported or whose local supply cannot readily be increased to meet the growing demand. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reached 20.8 percent year-on-year (yoy) in Q3, following an outturn of 17.3 percent in Q2. Growth for the year as a whole will likely hit 15 percent, if not more, up from 6.4 percent in 2010, and is being pushed by infrastructure spending as Mongolia develops its vast mineral wealth. Inflation continues its upward trend. The trade deficit is close to record levels (USD 1.4 bn in September using 12-month rolling sums) driven by a surge in mining-related equipment and fuel imports. Exports are growing strongly too, driven by large coal shipments to China. The 2012 budget continues this fiscal expansion and targets a 74 percent increase in expenditures (mostly on wages and social transfers).
Access to Finance --- Agriculture --- Air Pollution --- Banking Sector --- Capital Expenditures --- Cash Transfers --- Commercial Banks --- Commodity Prices --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Depreciation --- Economic Growth --- Employment --- Equity Markets --- Expenditures --- Exporters --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Crisis --- Financial Sector --- Financial Stability --- Fiscal & Monetary Policy --- Fiscal Policy --- Foreign Direct Investment --- Gdp --- Global Economy --- Gross Domestic Product --- Housing --- Income Tax --- Inflation --- Insurance --- Interest Rates --- Labor Force Surveys --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market Forces --- Monetary Policy --- Poverty Reduction --- Public Investment --- Purchasing Power --- Remittances --- Risk Aversion --- Slowdown --- Surplus --- Transport --- Uncertainty --- Unemployment --- Wages
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Inclusive growth (IG) analysis involves analyzing the available data in a country to determine the best course of action for accelerating growth and or improving the distribution of the opportunities and benefits from the growth process. In economies in which international migration is a significant trend, that determination may be especially challenging. The international migration phenomenon can contribute to (or detract from) growth and its distribution through myriad number of complex and sometimes divergent channels, and these effects can change substantially over time. The ability to analyze these impacts, however, is often significantly handicapped by a lack of appropriate data. Moreover, because the migration decision is inherently a private decision made by households in the best interest of their welfare, determining the policy conclusions based on the results of inclusive growth analysis is often unclear. Governments are rightfully wary of interfering with the migration process. This paper examines the issue of international migration in inclusive growth. The aim is to provide the practitioners of inclusive growth diagnostics a useful framework for assessing the nature of the international migration phenomenon, and to highlight the key tools utilized in evaluating its current and potential impact on shared growth.
Access to Finance --- Access to Information --- Accounting --- Banking Sector --- Brain Drain --- Business Development --- Central Banks --- Child Care --- Collateral --- Corruption --- Creditworthiness --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Developing Countries --- Economic Development --- Economic Policy --- Educational Attainment --- Employment Opportunities --- Exchange Rates --- Expenditures --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Development --- Financial Institutions --- Financial Services --- Gender --- Health Monitoring & Evaluation --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Host Countries --- Household Income --- Household Surveys --- Housing --- Human Capital --- Human Rights --- Immigration --- Income Inequality --- Inflation --- Insurance --- Interest Rates --- International Food Policy Research Institute --- International Migration --- Investment In Education --- Labor Force Surveys --- Labor Mobility --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migrant Workers --- Population Policies --- Poverty Reduction --- Productivity --- Profitability --- Remittances --- Return Migration --- Rule of Law --- Savings --- Secondary Education --- Skilled Workers --- Social Safety Nets --- Unemployment --- Urban Areas --- Wages
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