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Wages, Profitability, and Growth in a Small Open Economy
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ISBN: 1462381316 1455225258 Year: 1990 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines issues raised by the evolution of a rapidly growing small open economy—Singapore—from a labor-intensive, low-technology production base to a capital-intensive, high-technology, knowledge-and-skill-intensive emphasis as it approached the limits of its resource constraints in the labor market. In order to analyze the process of restructuring a model of endogenous growth for a small open economy that is driven by increases in labor productivity from learning and that allows for the dynamic acquisition of comparative advantage is developed. In this framework the effects of various policies and exogenous shocks on the direction and pace of restructuring are investigated.


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Education and Health for Inclusiveness.
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Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We discuss existing shortfalls and inequalities in the accumulation of human capital—knowledge, skills, and health. We analyze their immediate and systemic causes, and assess the scope for public intervention. The broad policy goals should be to improve: the quality, and not just the quantity, of education and health care; outcomes for disadvantaged groups; and lifelong outcomes. The means to achieve these goals, while maximizing value for money, include: focusing on results rather than just inputs; moving from piecemeal interventions to systemic reform; and adopting a “whole-of-society” approach. Reforms must be underpinned by a robust evidence base.


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Education and Health for Inclusiveness.
Author:
ISBN: 1513575260 Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

We discuss existing shortfalls and inequalities in the accumulation of human capital—knowledge, skills, and health. We analyze their immediate and systemic causes, and assess the scope for public intervention. The broad policy goals should be to improve: the quality, and not just the quantity, of education and health care; outcomes for disadvantaged groups; and lifelong outcomes. The means to achieve these goals, while maximizing value for money, include: focusing on results rather than just inputs; moving from piecemeal interventions to systemic reform; and adopting a “whole-of-society” approach. Reforms must be underpinned by a robust evidence base.


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Are Labor Market Indicators Telling the Truth? Role of Measurement Error in the U.S. Current Population Survey
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ISBN: 1498301614 1498300456 1498301584 Year: 2019 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor force status. Once I correct for measurement error using a latent variable approach, the unemployment rate is on average 0.8 percentage points (ppts) higher than the official unemployment rate, with a maximum of 2.0 ppts higher between 1996 and 2018. This paper further quantifies the contributions to business-cycle fluctuations in the unemployment rate from job separation, job finding, and participation. Correcting for misclassification changes previous studies' results about the contributions of these transition probabilities: job separation accounts for more of the unemployment fluctuations, while participation accounts for fewer. The methodology I propose can be applied to any other labor force survey in which labor force status is observed for three periods.


Book
Apartheid, Growth and Income Distribution in South Africa : Past History and Future Prospects
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ISBN: 1462372112 1455248525 1282109766 9786613802651 1455200980 Year: 1991 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Estimates of a supply-side model of the nonprimary sectors, in which particular attention has been paid to modeling key characteristics of the evolution of the apartheid system, are presented. These imply that the wage differential between white and nonwhite workers doing similar jobs fell significantly over the last two decades to around 14 percent in 1990. This relatively small gap implies that medium-term prospects for the advancement of the disadvantaged groups in South Africa depend heavily on their ability to take up skilled employment, with the direct gains from the elimination of apartheid being relatively small.


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Are the Unemployed Unemployable?
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ISBN: 1462308635 1455282782 1281600245 1455216070 9786613780935 Year: 1994 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper develops a matching model of the labor market under wage rigidity when hiring decisions are irreversible. There are two types of workers, the skilled and the unskilled. The model is used to analyze whether technological advances may have increased unemployment. It is shown that it is likely to be so if they are associated with an increase in the productivity and/or the supply of skilled workers relative to unskilled workers. These effects are stronger when hiring decisions are more irreversible.


Book
China's Labor Market Performance and Challenges
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ISBN: 1462381952 1452739943 1283517612 9786613830067 1451919409 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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A more market-oriented labor market has emerged in China in the past twenty years with growing importance of the urban private sector, as state-owned enterprises have downsized. Despite the progress on reforms, a sizable surplus of labor still exists in the rural sector and state-owned enterprises. The main challenge facing China’s labor market in coming years is to absorb the surplus labor into quality jobs while adjusting to World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. This paper estimates that if annual GDP growth averages 7 percent and the employment elasticity is one-half, urban unemployment could double to about 10 percent over the next three to four years. These pressures would be limited by stronger economic growth, especially in the private sector and more labor-intensive service industries which have generated the most jobs in recent years. Therefore, policy should focus on encouraging private sector development while reducing barriers to labor mobility, improving worker skills, upgrading job search services, and strengthening the social safety net.


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Labor Market Representation in Quantitative Macroeconomic Models for Developing Countries : An Application to Cote D'Ivoire
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ISBN: 1462368123 145525455X Year: 1995 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents a quantitative macroeconomic model that accounts for key features of the labor market in developing countries. Primarily inspired by Côte d’Ivoire, the model contrasts a formal urban sector, where wages are rigidly fixed and employment is submitted to firms profit-seeking behavior, to urban and rural informal sectors, where wages are flexible and employment is affected by fluctuations in formal sector employment. Dynamic simulations assess the impact on key macroeconomic variables of a terms of trade improvement, a public wage decrease, and an exchange rate adjustment, highlighting the roles of rural-urban migrations and capital accumulation in the informal urban sector.


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Explaining Unemployment in Spain : Structural Change, Cyclical Fluctuations, and Labor Market Rigidities
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ISBN: 1462325726 1455212180 1281296848 1455250414 9786613778444 Year: 1994 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Spain has the most serious and persistent unemployment problem in Europe, with an unemployment rate that reached 24.6 percent in early 1994. This paper explores the characteristics of this unemployment problem, its causes, and provides a brief discussion of recent labor market reform measures and their likely Impact. A demographic shift in recent years has produced a large rise in female labor force participation and a decrease in agricultural jobs to which the economy has been unable to adjust. The effects of generous unemployment benefits and the large underground economy may explain 6–12 percentage points of the resulting unemployment, but the remainder must be explained by failures and rigidities in the labor market. The paper presents econometric evidence that unemployment displays hysteresis, and that wages are not responsive to changes in the unemployment rate. This evidence supports the claim that insider-outsider factors and rigidities in the legal structure of the labor market are responsible for much of the high unemployment rate. Recent reforms have improved the functioning of the labor market, but they are unlikely to be sufficient to reduce unemployment to single digit rates without further action.


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Economic Geography and Wages : The Case of Indonesia
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ISBN: 1462399428 145271696X 1281244120 9786613777928 1451896425 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper finds a significant shift in the economic characteristics of civil conflicts during the1990s. Conflicts have become shorter but with more severe contractions and a stronger recovery of growth. The overall length and cost of the conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of macroeconomic policy was an important factor while the underlying "conflict process" remained unchanged. This shift seems related to changes in aid flows since the Cold War: donors became disinclined to provide support during conflict, but more inclined after conflict. These findings are buttressed by the post-conflict experience of countries that received financial assistance from the IMF and of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These findings have implications for policy and aid priorities after conflict.

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