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Does growing economic interdependence among great powers increase or decrease the chance of conflict and war? Liberals argue that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to stay peaceful. Realists contend that trade compels states to struggle for vital raw materials and markets. Moving beyond the stale liberal-realist debate, Economic Interdependence and War lays out a dynamic theory of expectations that shows under what specific conditions interstate commerce will reduce or heighten the risk of conflict between nations.Taking a broad look at cases spanning two centuries, from the Napoleonic and Crimean wars to the more recent Cold War crises, Dale Copeland demonstrates that when leaders have positive expectations of the future trade environment, they want to remain at peace in order to secure the economic benefits that enhance long-term power. When, however, these expectations turn negative, leaders are likely to fear a loss of access to raw materials and markets, giving them more incentive to initiate crises to protect their commercial interests. The theory of trade expectations holds important implications for the understanding of Sino-American relations since 1985 and for the direction these relations will likely take over the next two decades.Economic Interdependence and War offers sweeping new insights into historical and contemporary global politics and the actual nature of democratic versus economic peace.

POLITICAL SCIENCE / Peace. --- POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / Diplomacy. --- HISTORY / World. --- POLITICAL SCIENCE / Government / International. --- POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / General. --- Economic history --- Military history, Modern. --- Natural resources --- Competition, International. --- War --- Modern military history --- National resources --- Resources, Natural --- Resource-based communities --- Resource curse --- International competition --- World economics --- International relations --- International trade --- Causes of war --- Armed conflict (War) --- Conflict, Armed (War) --- Fighting --- Hostilities --- Wars --- Military art and science --- Peace --- Political aspects. --- Causes. --- Economic aspects --- History. --- American oil embargo. --- China. --- Cold War. --- Europe. --- European great powers. --- Japanese economy. --- Japanese foreign policy. --- Manchuria. --- Nazism. --- Pacific War. --- Russo-Japanese War. --- Shidehara Kijuro. --- Sino-American relations. --- Taisho democracy. --- USЃhinese relations. --- USЊapanese relations. --- USГoviet relations. --- World War I. --- World War II. --- case study research. --- causal theories. --- colonial territory. --- commerce. --- commercial expectations. --- conflict. --- democratic peace. --- economic interdependence. --- economic peace. --- existing literature. --- existing scholarship. --- future probabilities. --- future trade. --- global politics. --- global war. --- great power politics. --- great power system. --- great powers. --- historical analysis. --- imperial expansion. --- interdependence. --- international political economy. --- international relations. --- interstate commerce. --- investment. --- large-N quantitative research. --- leader expectations. --- liberalism. --- modern conflict. --- nineteenth-century geopolitics. --- political control. --- preventive wars. --- quantitative analysis. --- rare events research. --- realism. --- third-party territories. --- trade expectations theory. --- trade expectations. --- trade. --- war.