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This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and cross-border spillovers. We parameterize the model through an extensive calibration process, and provide a wide range of model properties and evaluation exercises. Simulation results suggest a prominent role of foreign demand shocks (euro area and global) in driving Poland’s output, inflation and interest rate dynamics, particularly in recent years. Our model also has the capability for medium-term conditional forecasting and policy analysis.
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Estimation and simulation of sustainable real exchange rates in some of the new EU accession countries point to potential difficulties in sustaining the ERM2 regime if entered too soon and with weak policies. According to the estimates, the Czech, Hungarian, and Polish currencies were overvalued in 2003. Simulations, conditional on large-model macroeconomic projections, suggest that under current policies those currencies would be unlikely to stay within the ERM2 stability corridor during 2004-10. In-sample simulations for Greece, Portugal, and Spain indicate both a much smaller misalignment of national currencies prior to ERM2, and a more stable path of real exchange rates over the medium term than can be expected for the new accession countries.
Electronic books. -- local. --- European Union -- Membership. --- Foreign exchange rates -- European Union countries. --- Investments, Foreign -- European Union countries. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Real exchange rates --- Foreign direct investment --- External debt --- Exchange rates --- Currencies --- Investments, Foreign --- Debts, External --- Money --- Czech Republic --- Foreign exchange rates --- European Union --- Membership.
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Industrial location --- Foreign trade and employment --- Investments, Foreign --- Business relocation --- Labor market --- Contracting out --- AA / International- internationaal --- 332.691 --- 338.45 --- 338.43 --- 338.32 --- Evolutie van de arbeidsmarkt. --- Industriële autarkie. Economisch nationalisme. Verankering van vennootschappen. --- Regionaal beleid. Industriële ontwikkeling en omschakeling van bepaalde regio's. Nieuwe industrieën. --- Vestigingsplaats en specialisatie van de productie. Ondernemingscentra. --- European Union countries --- Investments [Foreign ] --- Industry --- Relocation --- United States --- Capital exports --- Capital imports --- FDI (Foreign direct investment) --- Foreign direct investment --- Foreign investment --- Foreign investments --- International investment --- Offshore investments --- Outward investments --- Capital movements --- Investments --- Business enterprises --- Business location --- Corporations --- Industries --- Industries, Location of --- Location of industries --- Plant location --- Regional planning --- Space in economics --- Employment and foreign trade --- Commerce --- International trade --- Labor supply --- Investments, Foreign, and employment --- Trade adjustment assistance --- Business --- Relocation of business --- Evolutie van de arbeidsmarkt --- Vestigingsplaats en specialisatie van de productie. Ondernemingscentra --- Regionaal beleid. Industriële ontwikkeling en omschakeling van bepaalde regio's. Nieuwe industrieën --- Industriële autarkie. Economisch nationalisme. Verankering van vennootschappen --- Location --- Effect of international trade on --- Removal --- Industrial location - European Union countries --- Foreign trade and employment - European Union countries --- Investments, Foreign - European Union countries --- Business relocation - European Union countries --- Labor market - United States --- Contracting out - United States
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