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According to U.N. estimates, low-income countries will have to increase their annual public spending by up to 30 percent of GDP to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), raising the question of whether they can do it all. This paper develops a new metric of fiscal space in low-income countries that accounts for macroeconomic uncertainty, allowing us to assess whether those spending needs can be accommodated. Illustrative simulations based on this methodology imply that, even under benign conditions, the fiscal space available in lowincome countries is likely insufficient to undertake the spending needed to achieve the SDGs. Improving public investment efficiency and domestic revenue mobilization can somewhat narrow the gap but it will require major efforts relative to recent trends.
Developing countries --- Economic conditions. --- Fiscal policy --- E-books --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- National Deficit Surplus --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal space --- Fiscal stance --- Public debt --- Public investment spending --- Expenditure --- Debts, Public --- Public investments --- United States
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This paper examines trends in government spending in Latin America from the mid-1990s to 2006. It also examines key policy issues, including the cyclicality of spending, public investment, public employment, and social expenditures. It finds that primary expenditures have trended upward for the past ten years as a share of GDP, driven by increases in current spending, in particular for social expenditures. Fluctuations in real spending have continued to follow a procyclical pattern. The paper finds that there is substantial scope to improve the efficiency of public investment, public employment, and social spending.
Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Public finance & taxation --- Expenditure --- Capital spending --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Public investment spending --- Total expenditures --- Expenditures, Public --- Capital investments --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Public investments --- Chile --- Finance, Public
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The paper assesses, using seven structural models used heavily by policymaking institutions, the effectiveness of temporary fiscal stimulus. Models can, more easily than empirical studies, account for differences between fiscal instruments, for differences between structural characteristics of the economy, and for monetary-fiscal policy interactions. Findings are: (i) There is substantial agreement across models on the sizes of fiscal multipliers. (ii) The sizes of spending and targeted transfers multipliers are large. (iii) Fiscal policy is most effective if it has some persistence and if monetary policy accommodates it. (iv) The perception of permanent fiscal stimulus leads to significantly lower initial multipliers.
Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Monetary Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal stimulus --- Real interest rates --- Accommodative monetary policy --- Fiscal multipliers --- Public investment spending --- Fiscal policy --- Interest rates --- Monetary policy --- Public investments --- United States
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How effective was public investment in stimulating the Japanese economy during the economic stagnation of the 1990s? Using a dataset of regional public investment spending, we find that investment multipliers were higher than for public consumption, although they were relatively low and declining over time. The paper also finds that the effectiveness of economic infrastructure investment, implemented mainly by the central government, is lower than that of social investment mostly undertaken by local governments. These results suggest that while public investment may yield higher output effects than other spending, its effectiveness depends upon its composition, the level of government implementation, and supply side factors.
Investments: General --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Public investment spending --- Expenditure --- Private investment --- Public debt --- Revenue administration --- Public investments --- Expenditures, Public --- Saving and investment --- Debts, Public --- Revenue --- Japan
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This Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement for the Kyrgyz Republic explains macroeconomic and structural performance. External debt service claimed a steadily increasing share of fiscal revenues, but a strengthened commitment to prudent fiscal policies and improved policy capacity have helped to turn around macroeconomic performance. Fiscal policy must deliver on its revenue targets, while addressing poverty and servicing large external debt obligations. Debt reduction must continue to be a main objective of any IMF-supported program.
Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- Trade: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Exports --- External debt --- Export performance --- Public investment spending --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- International trade --- Expenditure --- Debts, External --- Public investments --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Kyrgyz Republic
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This note examines the efficiency gains that might result from market-based debt reduction and alternative uses of resources. It is argued that when a country’s expected output falls short of contractual claims on that output, private investment is drawn to activities that protect the investors’ share of future output at the expense of activities that increase future output. Resources provided by a third party could reduce this gap through market-based debt reduction or by supporting government investment or consumption. Given considerable uncertainty about the efficiency returns of alternative uses of resources, it seems likely that an optimal strategy would include both debt reduction and government investment.
Currency --- Debt Management --- Debt reduction --- Debt --- Debts, External --- Finance --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Institutional arrangements for revenue administration --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Public finance & taxation --- Public Finance --- Public investment spending --- Public investments --- Real exchange rates --- Revenue --- Sovereign Debt --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General
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Over the past three decades, public spending on infrastructure, as a share of GDP, has been on the decline worldwide. Although the link between infrastructure investment and economic growth is not yet fully understood, the quality of infrastructure clearly affects a country's productivity, competitiveness in export markets, and ability to attract foreign investment. This EI explores the following questions: Should countries increase public investment in infrastructure? If the answer is yes, how can they do so in a fiscally responsible manner? Are public-private partnerships a viable alternative?.
Infrastructure --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Public investment spending --- Public debt --- Expenditure --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Public investments --- Saving and investment --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Brazil
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Durante las últimas tres décadas, el gasto público en infraestructura, como porcentaje del PIB, ha estado disminuyendo en todo el mundo. Aunque la relación entre la inversión en infraestructura y el crecimiento económico aún no se comprende cabalmente, la calidad de la infraestructura afecta sin lugar a dudas a la productividad de un país, la competitividad en los mercados de exportación y la capacidad para atraer inversiones extranjeras. Este estudio analiza las siguientes preguntas: ¿Deberían los países aumentar la inversión pública en infraestructura? Si la respuesta es sí, ¿cómo pueden hacerlo de una manera que sea responsable desde el punto de vista fiscal? ¿Son las asociaciones público-privadas una alternativa viable?.
Infrastructure --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Public investment spending --- Public debt --- Expenditure --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Public investments --- Saving and investment --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Brazil
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Over the past three decades, public spending on infrastructure, as a share of GDP, has been on the decline worldwide. Although the link between infrastructure investment and economic growth is not yet fully understood, the quality of infrastructure clearly affects a country's productivity, competitiveness in export markets, and ability to attract foreign investment. This EI explores the following questions: Should countries increase public investment in infrastructure? If the answer is yes, how can they do so in a fiscally responsible manner? Are public-private partnerships a viable alternative?.
Infrastructure --- Public Finance --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP) --- Public investment spending --- Public debt --- Expenditure --- Public-private sector cooperation --- Public investments --- Saving and investment --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Brazil
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The preponderance of evidence from the empirical literature on aid effectiveness suggests that development aid has not had a significant impact on growth in recipient countries. However, there is some evidence that aid has had positive effects when the policy environment has been conducive to growth. Regarding the relationship between aid and the main channels through which its impact on growth could flow—investment and domestic saving—the evidence is mixed, with some indication that aid has had a positive impact where adjustment efforts have been sustained.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Foreign Aid --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Foreign aid --- Domestic savings --- Expenditure --- Aid flows --- Public investment spending --- National accounts --- International relief --- Saving and investment --- Expenditures, Public --- Economic assistance --- Public investments --- Sri Lanka
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