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Financial system safeguards against money laundering and terrorist financing are crucial for the integrity of the global financial system, but these safeguards need to be crafted in such a way that they do not negatively affect financial inclusion and disincentive the use of the formal financial system by ordinary individuals and businesses. This study examines the possible unintended consequences of the implementation of international standards on anti-money laundering, combating the financing of terrorism (AML-CFT) on financial inclusion objectives and proposes ways to address any such consequences. This examination focuses mainly on external AML-CFT compliance evaluations, so-called mutual evaluations, led by international organizations and the money laundering and terrorist financing (ML-TF) risk assessments undertaken by the countries themselves. The analysis is supplemented by interviews with officials and private sector representatives from three countries and by field experience and observations from experts. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the international standard setter for AML-CFT, has been devoting increasing attention to financial inclusion over the past decade, but this is not yet fully reflected in country mutual evaluations. The FATF's increasing attention is evident in its guidance papers on financial inclusion and digital identification (ID), and in the recognition of the importance of financial inclusion in its 2019 mandate. However, coverage of financial inclusion in mutual evaluations is still uneven and mostly superficial and is not accompanied by concrete policy recommendations.
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Does the internet enable the recruitment of transnational terrorists Using geo-referenced population census data and personnel records from the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant-a highly tech-savvy terrorist organization-this paper shows that internet access has facilitated the organization's recruitment of foreign fighters from Tunisia. The positive association between internet access and Daesh recruitment is robust to controlling for a large set of observable and unobservable confounders as well as instrumenting internet access rates with the incidence of lightning strikes.
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The report provides the first primary research conducted in Tajikistan by the World Bank Group (WBG) to analyze the youth, gender and local dimensions of radicalization and recruitment by VE groups, helping fill a gap in such analysis and evidence. It is based on qualitative research conducted across Tajikistan in 2018 and builds on the government of Tajikistan's official statistics as well as existing literature on socio-economic conditions and violent extremism in the country. The research provided critical inputs to three projects under the Resilience Strengthening Program (RSP3) which is supported by the IDA-18 Risk Mitigation Regime through a contribution close to US 100 million dollars. In particular, this study informed the design of the 37 million dollars Socio-Economic Resilience Strengthening Project, an intervention that focuses on vulnerable communities and youth groups along border areas with Afghanistan. This report also seeks to contribute to the global understanding of radicalization and violent extremism, particularly in the context of the first pillar of the WBG Strategy for Fragility, Conflict and Violence 2020-2025 focusing on preventing violent conflict and interpersonal violence.
Access to Education --- Conflict and Development --- Education --- Education for All --- Employment and Unemployment --- Fragile States --- Human Rights --- International Terrorism and Counterterrorism --- Labor Markets --- Radicalization --- Social Analysis --- Social Conflict and Violence --- Social Development --- Social Inclusion --- Social Inclusion and Institutions --- Social Protections and Labor
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What is the impact of terrorism on trade through higher security at the borders? The authors set up a theory which shows that the impact goes not only from terrorism to trade. Higher trade with a partner might, in turn, increase the probability of terrorism acts and make security measures more costly for total welfare. To identify the true impact of terrorism, their theory allows for a strategy to condition out the latter mechanism. The authors show in particular how past incidents perpetrated in third countries (anywhere in the world except the origin or targeted country) constitute good exogenous factors for current security measures at the borders. Their tests suggest that terrorist incidents have a small effect on U.S. imports on average, but a much higher effect for those origin countries at the top of the distribution of incidents. In addition, the level of the impact is up to three times higher when the acts result in a relatively high number of victims, the products are sensitive to shipping time, and the size of the partner is small. The authors further show how terrorism affects the number of business visas given by the United States, thereby affecting significantly U.S. imports in differentiated products. These results suggest that security to prevent terrorism does matter for trade.
Attack --- Attacks --- Car Bomb --- Conflict and Development --- Counter-Terrorism --- Counter-Terrorism Measures --- Country Strategy and Performance --- Debt Markets --- E-Business --- E-Finance and E-Security --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Hazard Risk Management --- Homeland Security --- Industry --- Information --- International Terrorism and Counterterrorism --- International Trade --- Logistical Support --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Security --- Technology Industry --- Terrorism --- Terrorism Acts --- Terrorism Thre Terrorist --- Terrorist Activities --- Terrorist Attack --- Terrorist Incidents --- Terrorist Organizations --- Transport --- Transport Security --- Travel --- Urban Development --- World Trade
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Evening-hour luminosity observed using satellites is a good proxy for economic activity. The strengths of measuring economic activity using nightlight measurements include that the data capture informal activity, are available in near real-time, are cheap to obtain, and can be used to conduct very spatially granular analysis. This paper presents a measure of monthly economic activity at the district level based on cleaned Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite nightlight and rural population. The paper demonstrates that this new method can shed light on recent episodes in South Asia: first, the 2015 earthquake in Nepal; second, demonetization in India; and, third, violent conflict outbreaks in Afghanistan.
Agriculture --- Armed Conflict --- Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies --- Common Carriers Industry --- Conflict and Development --- Construction Industry --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory and Research --- Food and Beverage Industry --- Food Security --- General Manufacturing --- Industrial Economics --- Industry --- Infrared Imaging --- International Economics and Trade --- International Terrorism and Counterterrorism --- International Trade and Trade Rules --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Plastics and Rubber Industry --- Pulp and Paper Industry --- Remote Sensing --- Satellite Imagery --- Textiles Apparel and Leather Industry
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What is the impact of terrorism on trade through higher security at the borders? The authors set up a theory which shows that the impact goes not only from terrorism to trade. Higher trade with a partner might, in turn, increase the probability of terrorism acts and make security measures more costly for total welfare. To identify the true impact of terrorism, their theory allows for a strategy to condition out the latter mechanism. The authors show in particular how past incidents perpetrated in third countries (anywhere in the world except the origin or targeted country) constitute good exogenous factors for current security measures at the borders. Their tests suggest that terrorist incidents have a small effect on U.S. imports on average, but a much higher effect for those origin countries at the top of the distribution of incidents. In addition, the level of the impact is up to three times higher when the acts result in a relatively high number of victims, the products are sensitive to shipping time, and the size of the partner is small. The authors further show how terrorism affects the number of business visas given by the United States, thereby affecting significantly U.S. imports in differentiated products. These results suggest that security to prevent terrorism does matter for trade.
Attack --- Attacks --- Car Bomb --- Conflict and Development --- Counter-Terrorism --- Counter-Terrorism Measures --- Country Strategy and Performance --- Debt Markets --- E-Business --- E-Finance and E-Security --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Hazard Risk Management --- Homeland Security --- Industry --- Information --- International Terrorism and Counterterrorism --- International Trade --- Logistical Support --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Private Sector Development --- Security --- Technology Industry --- Terrorism --- Terrorism Acts --- Terrorism Thre Terrorist --- Terrorist Activities --- Terrorist Attack --- Terrorist Incidents --- Terrorist Organizations --- Transport --- Transport Security --- Travel --- Urban Development --- World Trade
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The authors offer a general analytical framework illustrating the complex two-way interactions between trade and transnational terrorism. Then they survey the recent economic literature in light of this framework by pointing to the importance in empirical studies of (1) controlling appropriately for theses interactions, (2) distinguishing between "source" countries and "target" countries of terrorism, and (3) taking into account the intertemporal persistence of terrorism between specific pairs of countries.
Attacks --- Conflict and Development --- Counter-Terrorism --- Counter-Terrorism Policies --- Counterterrorist Policies --- Debt Markets --- E-Business --- E-Finance and E-Security --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Transactions --- Free Trade --- Hazard Risk Management --- International Economics & Trade --- International Terrorism and Counterterrorism --- International Trade --- Logistical Support --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monitoring --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures --- Security --- Terrorism --- Terrorist --- Terrorist Activities --- Terrorist Acts --- Terrorist Groups --- Terrorist Incidents --- Terrorist Organizations --- Terrorist Thre Terrorists --- Transport --- Transport Security --- Travel --- Urban Development --- Weapon
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The authors offer a general analytical framework illustrating the complex two-way interactions between trade and transnational terrorism. Then they survey the recent economic literature in light of this framework by pointing to the importance in empirical studies of (1) controlling appropriately for theses interactions, (2) distinguishing between "source" countries and "target" countries of terrorism, and (3) taking into account the intertemporal persistence of terrorism between specific pairs of countries.
Attacks --- Conflict and Development --- Counter-Terrorism --- Counter-Terrorism Policies --- Counterterrorist Policies --- Debt Markets --- E-Business --- E-Finance and E-Security --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial Transactions --- Free Trade --- Hazard Risk Management --- International Economics & Trade --- International Terrorism and Counterterrorism --- International Trade --- Logistical Support --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monitoring --- Private Sector Development --- Public Sector Corruption and Anticorruption Measures --- Security --- Terrorism --- Terrorist --- Terrorist Activities --- Terrorist Acts --- Terrorist Groups --- Terrorist Incidents --- Terrorist Organizations --- Terrorist Thre Terrorists --- Transport --- Transport Security --- Travel --- Urban Development --- Weapon
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