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We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. Spikes in the index identify major events, which correspond very closely to event timelines from external sources for four major regional waves of social unrest. We show that the cross-sectional distribution of the index can be simply and precisely characterized, and that social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate.

Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- International Economics: General --- International Relations and International Political Economy: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Public expenditure review --- Labor --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Labor economics --- Thailand

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In this paper we seek to answer the question of how the patterns of bilateral trade are altered by rising trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Specifically, we investigate whether geopolitical alignments between country pairs determine how bilateral trade flows react during periods of greater uncertainty. Using a structural gravity framework augmented with a text-based TPU index and a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting records, we find a significant negative effect of the latter when TPU is elevated, indicating a shift to trading among “friends” in uncertain times.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International Relations and International Political Economy: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Trade policy --- International trade --- Trade balance --- Plurilateral trade --- Trade tensions --- Trade barriers --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade

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In this paper we seek to answer the question of how the patterns of bilateral trade are altered by rising trade policy uncertainty (TPU). Specifically, we investigate whether geopolitical alignments between country pairs determine how bilateral trade flows react during periods of greater uncertainty. Using a structural gravity framework augmented with a text-based TPU index and a geopolitical distance measure based on UN General Assembly voting records, we find a significant negative effect of the latter when TPU is elevated, indicating a shift to trading among “friends” in uncertain times.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Exports and Imports --- Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty: General --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International Relations and International Political Economy: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- International economics --- Trade policy --- International trade --- Trade balance --- Plurilateral trade --- Trade tensions --- Trade barriers --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Commercial policy --- Balance of trade

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We aim to provide a broad descriptive overview of Chile’s social issues, in comparison to other countries and over time, in order to place the recent social unrest in historical and international perspectives which can help prepare the ground for future policy priorities. We follow an eclectic approach, classifying a broad set of indicators along six dimensions—inequality across: i) income; ii) perception; iii) access; iv) opportunity; v) redistribution; and vi) location. The analysis puts forward a set of descriptive findings. First, income inequality declined substantially but remains high, also compared to countries with similar level and path of development. Second, Chile seems to be one of the few countries in Latin America with declining inequality where perceived inequality actually increased. Third, notwithstanding an increase in social spending, access to essential services appears limited, particularly for middle and lower income classes, amid fast growth of out-of-pocket health expenses, relatively faster growth of cost of living for the relatively poorer, and remaining weaknesses in the pension and education systems. Fourth, inequality of opportunity is high, with limited competition. Fifth, fiscal redistribution has improved markedly, but remains low by international standards. Finally, inter-regional inequality has declined substantially over the last two decades, reaching levels similar to the OECD median.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement --- International Relations and International Political Economy: General --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Education: General --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Education --- Income inequality --- National accounts --- Income --- Income distribution --- Fiscal redistribution --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Chile

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Central banks around the world are increasingly exploring central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). This paper investigates the possible impacts of cross-border CBDCs on capital flows and financial stability in a simple open economy extension of a classical model of bank runs, augmented with the presence of a credible foreign central bank, which issues an account-based interest bearing CBDC available to nonresidents. The paper finds that the presence of a foreign CBDC which acts as an international safe asset may increase the risk of financial disintermediation in the domestic banking sector, which can be accompanied by higher and more volatile capital flows.

Macroeconomics --- Economics: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- International Relations and International Political Economy: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Economics of specific sectors --- Distributed ledgers --- Banking --- International economics --- Central Bank digital currencies --- Technology --- Commercial banks --- Financial institutions --- Foreign banks --- Bank deposits --- Financial services --- Capital account --- Balance of payments --- Currency crises --- Informal sector --- Economics --- Financial services industry --- Technological innovations --- Banks and banking --- Banks and banking, Foreign --- United States