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We present a new index of social unrest based on counts of relevant media reports. The index consists of individual monthly time series for 130 countries, available with almost no lag, and can be easily and transparently replicated. Spikes in the index identify major events, which correspond very closely to event timelines from external sources for four major regional waves of social unrest. We show that the cross-sectional distribution of the index can be simply and precisely characterized, and that social unrest is associated with a 3 percentage point increase in the frequency of social unrest domestically and a 1 percent increase in neighbors in the next six months. Despite this, social unrest is not a better predictor of future social unrest than the country average rate.

Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- International Economics: General --- International Relations and International Political Economy: General --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Labour --- income economics --- Public expenditure review --- Labor --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Labor economics --- Thailand

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The paper identifies a number of stylized facts on the behavior of key macroeconomic variables during high inflation and stabilization in countries in transition. To examine the extent to which these stylized facts conform to the predictions of standard open economy monetary theory, the paper develops a simple monetary model of the exchange rate incorporating price stickiness and inflation inertia, and carries out an econometric analysis of the behavior of real money balances during inflation stabilization. The paper concludes by assessing the prospects for velocity developments in countries in transition, including the likely pace of remonetization.

Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- General Aggregative Models: General --- International Economics: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Demand for Money --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Monetary base --- Demand for money --- Spot exchange rates --- Prices --- Money --- Money supply --- Russian Federation

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Insurance enterprises provide services, called insurance services, to policyholders. The values of such services are seldom, if ever, directly apparent; rather these values are implicitly entwined within the payment of premiums. This paper discusses the treatment of insurance services, and related transactions, in the balance of payments. A simple measure, based on a number of assumptions, of nonlife insurance services is considered. The assumptions underlying this measure are then relaxed. The treatment of life insurance, which has many of the characteristics of nonlife insurance, is then addressed. The paper concludes with a discussion on the practical aspects of measuring insurance transactions in the balance of payments.

Exports and Imports --- Insurance --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Economic Methodology --- Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data --- Data Access --- International Economics: General --- Insurance Companies --- Actuarial Studies --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Trade: General --- Insurance & actuarial studies --- Finance --- International economics --- Insurance companies --- Personal income --- Imports --- Income

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This paper discusses the broad orientation of the economic systems adopted in developing countries. While government-led development strategies were widely followed by developing countries since the 1950s and 1960s, a distinct trend towards the adoption of market-oriented systems has developed in the last decade. The paper reviews international trade policies, noting the move away from protectionism, and financial markets policies, where financial repression is also giving way to more liberal systems. The paper also discusses newer ideas supporting “industrial policies” or policies to promote certain export activities, that are partly inspired by the success of several East Asian economies, and observes that their application to other developing countries would not be promising.

Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- International Economics: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Crises --- International economics --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Trade liberalization --- Trade policy --- Real interest rates --- Trade barriers --- Financial crises --- International trade --- Financial services --- Commercial policy --- Interest rates --- Chile

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We quantify the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on firm leverage. When home currency appreciates, firms who hold foreign currency debt and local currency assets observe higher net worth as appreciation lowers the value of their foreign currency debt. These firms can borrow more as a result and increase their leverage. When home currency depreciates, the reverse happens as firms have to de-lever with a negative shock to their balance sheets. Using firm-level data for leverage from 10 emerging market economies during the period from 2002 to 2015, we show that firms operating in countries whose non-financial sectors hold more of the debt in foreign currency, increase (decrease) their leverage relatively more after home currency appreciations (depreciations). Combining the leverage data with firm-level FX debt data for 4 emerging market countries, we further show that our results hold at the most granular level. Our quantitative results are asymmetric: the effects of depre-ciations, that are generally associated with sudden stops, are quantitatively larger than those of appreciations, which take place at a slower pace over time during capital inflow episodes. As our exercise compares depreciations and appreciations of similar size, these results are suggestive of financial frictions being more binding during depreciations than a possible relaxation of such frictions during appreciations.

Business and Economics --- Foreign Exchange --- Investments: General --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General --- International Economics: General --- Trade: General --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Depreciation --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Currencies --- Saving and investment --- Money --- Korea, Republic of --- Foreign exchange rates. --- Depreciation. --- Financial risk management. --- Business and Economics. --- Foreign Exchange. --- Investments: General. --- Money and Monetary Policy. --- Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics: General. --- International Economics: General. --- Trade: General. --- Investment. --- Capital. --- Intangible Capital. --- Capacity. --- Monetary Systems. --- Standards. --- Regimes. --- Government and the Monetary System. --- Payment Systems. --- Currency. --- Macroeconomics. --- Monetary economics. --- Exchange rates. --- Exchange rate adjustments. --- Currencies. --- Saving and investment. --- Money. --- Korea, Republic of.