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Iraq was plunged into two simultaneous crises in the second half of 2014, one driven by a sharp decline in oil prices, the other, by the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The severity and recurrent nature of these crises demand a fast understanding and quantification of their welfare impact, which is critical for policy makers. This paper employs an innovative extension of the micro-simulation methodology to provide an ex ante estimate and analysis of the complex and dynamic poverty and distributional impact of the twin crises. The results show an almost complete erosion of the welfare gains of the past, with poverty falling back to 2007 levels and a 20 percent increase in the number of the poor. While the incidence of poverty is higher among internally displaced persons than the rest of the population (except in the Islamic State-affected governorates, where poverty is higher), internally displaced persons make up only a small proportion of Iraq's eight million poor in 2014. The rest comprise of households who already lived below the poverty line, or those who have fallen below the poverty line in the face of the massive economic disruptions the country is facing. The welfare impact of the crises varies widely across space, with the largest increases in poverty headcount rates in Kurdistan and the Islamic State-affected governorates. Yet, the poorest regions in the 2014 crisis scenario are the same as in 2012, the currently Islamic State-affected, and the South, with poverty rates of 40 and 30 percent, respectively. Although the simulated results are not strictly comparable to ex post micro data estimates, because of survey coverage constraints, overall the results are very much in line, particularly in Kurdistan and the South.

Crisis --- Economic Theory & Research --- Ex-Ante --- Inequality --- Internal Displacement --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Micro-Simulation --- Oil --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Iraq

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Iraq was plunged into two simultaneous crises in the second half of 2014, one driven by a sharp decline in oil prices, the other, by the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The severity and recurrent nature of these crises demand a fast understanding and quantification of their welfare impact, which is critical for policy makers. This paper employs an innovative extension of the micro-simulation methodology to provide an ex ante estimate and analysis of the complex and dynamic poverty and distributional impact of the twin crises. The results show an almost complete erosion of the welfare gains of the past, with poverty falling back to 2007 levels and a 20 percent increase in the number of the poor. While the incidence of poverty is higher among internally displaced persons than the rest of the population (except in the Islamic State-affected governorates, where poverty is higher), internally displaced persons make up only a small proportion of Iraq's eight million poor in 2014. The rest comprise of households who already lived below the poverty line, or those who have fallen below the poverty line in the face of the massive economic disruptions the country is facing. The welfare impact of the crises varies widely across space, with the largest increases in poverty headcount rates in Kurdistan and the Islamic State-affected governorates. Yet, the poorest regions in the 2014 crisis scenario are the same as in 2012, the currently Islamic State-affected, and the South, with poverty rates of 40 and 30 percent, respectively. Although the simulated results are not strictly comparable to ex post micro data estimates, because of survey coverage constraints, overall the results are very much in line, particularly in Kurdistan and the South.

Crisis --- Economic Theory & Research --- Ex-Ante --- Inequality --- Internal Displacement --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Micro-Simulation --- Oil --- Poverty Reduction --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Social Protections and Labor --- Iraq

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Conflict-induced forced displacement is receiving increased interest within the international community. However, establishing an accurate picture of its scale and dynamics is extremely challenging. Large amounts of data on forced displacement are collected and disseminated each year and used to inform policy and programming by humanitarian and development actors. However, not all of these data are credible or complete, and there are significant gaps in the data required for longer-term development planning. This paper reviews the various sources of data on forced displacement and assesses how these can be improved to enable more effective analysis and assistance by development actors. At an aggregate level, the headline figure of 65 million forcibly displaced persons is an estimate, and the data on internally displaced persons are the least robust. There are also several significant gaps in data collection for those populations that are of concern to development actors, especially returnees, as well the substantial number of people living in displacement-affected host communities. In addition, there is little comprehensive data available on the socioeconomic vulnerabilities and needs of displaced populations, or on the social and economic impacts of displacement on host countries and communities. Significant efforts are needed to enhance the reliability, comparability, quality, and scope of data on forced displacement in general, and address the gaps in the data required for long-term development planning.

Affected Host Communities --- Asylum-Seekers --- Forced Displacement --- IDMC --- IDPS --- Internally Displaced People --- Refugees --- Returnees --- The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre --- UNHCR --- United Nations High Commissioner For Refugees

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Migration, whether forced or voluntary, continues to be an issue vital to Africa, arguably the continent most affected by internal displacement. Over centuries, in groups or as individuals, Africans have been forced to leave their homes to escape unfavorable natural, social, or political circumstances, or simply to seek better lives elsewhere. This essential volume establishes the centrality of human migration and movement to the evolution of African societies. Using oral, archaeological, and written sources, and focusing on various geographical areas, the contributors show that migration is a multifaceted phenomenon, historically varied in nature and character. 'Movements, Borders, and Identities in Africa' incorporates carefully selected case studies drawn from across the continent, and provides a broad but insightful overview of migration and its complex relationships to slavery, commerce, religion, architecture, material culture, poverty, diaspora life and identity formation, and the development of states and societies on the continent. Taken as a whole, this collection offers a groundbreaking interrogation of the myriad causes and effects of African migration, from the precolonial to the modern era. Contributors: Edmund Abaka, Maurice Amutabi, Toyin Falola, Ghislaine Geloin, Issiaka Mande, Jean-Luc Martineau, Pius S. Nyambara, Akinwumi Ogundiran, Adisa Ogunfolakan, Olatunji Ojo, Brigitte Kowalski Oshineye, Meshack Owino, Gerald Steyn, and Aribidesi Usman. Toyin Falola is the Frances Higginbotham Nalle Centennial Professor of History and Distinuished Teaching at the University of Texas at Austin. Aribidesi Usman is associate professor of African and African American studies and anthropology at Arizona State University.

Ethnicity --- Africa --- Emigration and immigration --- History. --- Boundaries. --- Historical geography. --- Eastern Hemisphere --- African Migration. --- African Societies. --- Architecture. --- Commerce. --- Development. --- Diaspora. --- Forced Migration. --- Geography. --- Identity Formation. --- Internal Displacement. --- Landscape. --- Material Culture. --- Poverty. --- Power. --- Religion. --- Slavery. --- Voluntary Migration.

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Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo has been embroiled in decades-long conflict that has resulted in the forced displacement of millions of people and extremely high rates of gender-based violence. Much attention has been focused on conflict-related sexual violence; however, it is important to recognize that intimate partner violence is one of the most pervasive forms of gender-based violence in the world, including in conflict settings. This paper is among the first to use a large, randomized survey to analyze both sexual violence and intimate partner violence as outcomes. Displacement increases a woman's risk of past-year intimate partner violence by 6 percent and experiencing war abuses increases the risk of lifetime intimate partner violence by 9 percent, after adjusting for other risk factors. Both exposure to war-related experiences and displacement independently increase the risk of past-year sexual violence by 6 percent, after adjusting for other risk factors. Forced displacement and traumatic war-related experiences are risk factors for intimate partner violence and sexual violence in this setting. Acknowledging these risks and creating programs that explicitly address the high risk of violence faced by displaced and war-affected women can more effectively break the cycles of violence that are often perpetuated in fragile settings.

Armed Conflict --- Conflict and Development --- Conflict-Affected States --- Cycle Of Violence --- Displaced Persons --- Gender --- Gender and Poverty --- Gender-Based Violence --- Internal Displacement --- Intimate Partner Violence --- Political Violence --- Poverty Reduction --- Sexual Violence --- Social Cohesion --- Social Conflict and Violence --- Vulnerability