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Mobility and Pathways to the Middle Class in Nepal
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper introduces a variety of concepts and methods to examine living standards improvements in Nepal in a dynamic perspective. Using data from three rounds of Nepal Living Standards Surveys conducted in the past two decades, together with data from a nationally representative survey that was implemented in 2014 specifically to collect information on social and economic mobility, the paper presents novel statistics on the extent of inter- and intra-generational mobility in Nepal. The findings suggest that there has been appreciable upward mobility in education; that is, Nepalis today are increasingly more likely to be better educated than their parents. However, inter-generational mobility of occupations has been much more muted, with 47 percent of Nepal today remaining in the same occupation as their parents. Upward mobility is higher for younger cohorts and for individuals who move from their rural areas of birth to an urban area. There are also significant differences in mobility by social groups, with Dalits and Terai caste groups having lower upward mobility odds. Examining mobility within generations using synthetic panel techniques, the paper finds that: (a) for every two people who escape poverty, one slides back, suggesting significant churning around the poverty line; (b) a large fraction of those who have escaped poverty remain vulnerable to falling back, with an overall vulnerable population of 45 percent; and (c) the share of the middle class-defined as those with sufficiently low likelihood of falling back into poverty-has increased steadily over the past two decades, reaching 22 percent in 2010-11. However, triangulating subjective well-being data from Gallup, it appears that a majority of even those who constitute the middle class are fundamentally insecure about their economic futures. The prevalence of a large vulnerable population and a nascent, growing but struggling middle class represents a key challenge to consolidating recent gains in moving people out of poverty.


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Intergenerational Mobility around the World
Authors: --- --- --- ---
Year: 2021 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Using individual data from over 400 surveys, this paper compiles a global database of intergenerational mobility in education for 153 countries covering 97 percent of the world's population. For 87 percent of the world's population, it provides trends in intergenerational mobility for individuals born between 1950 to 1989. The findings show that absolute mobility in education-the share of respondents that obtains higher levels of education than their parents-is higher in the developed world despite the higher levels of parental educational attainment. Relative mobility-measuring the degree of independence between parent and child years of schooling-is also found to be greater in the developed world. Together, these findings point to severe challenges in intergenerational mobility in the poorest parts of the world. Beyond national income levels, the paper explores the correlation between intergenerational mobility and a variety of country characteristics. Countries with higher rates of mobility have (i) higher tax revenues and rates of government expenditures, especially on education; (ii) better child health indicators (less stunting and lower infant mortality); (iii) higher school quality (more teachers per pupil and fewer school dropouts); and (iv) less residential segregation.


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Does Improved Local Supply of Schooling Enhance Intergenerational Mobility in Education? Evidence from Jordan
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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The impact of the growth of the local supply of public schools in the post-Colonial period on intergenerational mobility in education is a first-order question in the Arab World. This question is examined in Jordan using a unique dataset that links individual data on own schooling and parents' schooling for adults, from a household survey, with the supply of schools in the subdistrict of birth at the time the individual was of age to enroll, from a school census. The identification strategy exploits the variation in the supply of basic and secondary public schools across cohorts and subdistricts of birth in Jordan, controlling for year and subdistrict-of-birth fixed effects and interactions of governorate and year-of-birth fixed effects. The findings show that the local availability of basic public schools does, in fact, increase intergenerational mobility in education. For instance, a one standard deviation increase in the supply of basic public schools per 1,000 people reduces the father-son and mother-son associations of schooling by 18-20 percent and the father-daughter and mother-daughter associations by 33-44 percent. However, an increase in the local supply of secondary public schools does not seem to have an effect on the intergenerational mobility in education.


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Inequality of Opportunity in South Caucasus
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Year: 2018 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper discusses equality of opportunity in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, with an emphasis on access to labor market opportunities. It develops an inequality of opportunity index on access to good jobs and decomposes the contributing factors in the prevailing inequality. Then, it discusses the extent to which inequality in accessing human capital inputs among individuals during the early formative years may affect access to good jobs. The main takeaways are as follows. First, connections play an important role in obtaining access to good jobs in the South Caucasus, highlighting the unfairness in processes in the sub-region's labor markets. Second, access to good jobs-defined as work for 20 hours or more a week and work under contract or with tenure-is low in the South Caucasus in comparison with other parts of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Third, even among people who have access to these jobs, the share of the total inequality of opportunity that may be characterized as unfair is relatively high. Armenia and Azerbaijan stand out for the significant share of inequality in access to good jobs associated with gender differences. Fourth, the analysis on access to education and basic human capital inputs in the earlier, formative stages of life shows that learning performance in the South Caucasus tends to be poor and unequal across the life circumstances of children. Nonetheless, the coverage rates of basic human capital inputs are generally high; the relatively narrow inequalities arise mostly from spatial disparities. These results indicate that addressing the deep structural inequalities shaping the landscape of opportunity in the South Caucasus must be a key consideration in any strategy to share prosperity sustainably.


Book
Education and Intergenerational Social Mobility in Europe and the United States
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ISBN: 9781503611153 1503611159 1503610160 9781503610163 Year: 2020 Publisher: Stanford, CA : Stanford University Press,

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This volume examines the role of education in shaping rates and patterns of intergenerational social mobility among men and women during the twentieth century. Focusing on the relationship between a person's social class and the social class of his or her parents, each chapter looks at a different country—the United States, Sweden, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland. Contributors examine change in absolute and relative mobility and in education across birth cohorts born between the first decade of the twentieth century and the early 1970s. They find a striking similarity in trends across all countries, and in particular a contrast between the fortunes of people born before the 1950s, those who enjoyed increasing rates of upward mobility and a decline in the strength of the link between class origins and destinations, and later generations who experienced more downward mobility and little change in how origins and destinations are linked. This volume uncovers the factors that drove these shifts, revealing education as significant in promoting social openness. It will be an invaluable source for anyone who wants to understand the evolution of mobility and inequality in the contemporary world.


Book
Occupational Dualism and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in the Rural Economy : Evidence from China and India
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper extends the Becker-Tomes model of intergenerational educational mobility to a rural economy characterized by farm-nonfarm occupational dualism and provides a comparative analysis of rural China and rural India. The model builds a micro-foundation for the widely used linear-in-levels estimating equation. Returns to education for parents and productivity of financial investment in children's education determine relative mobility, as measured by the slope, while the intercept depends, among other factors, on the degree of persistence in nonfarm occupations. Unlike many existing studies based on coresident samples, our estimates of intergenerational mobiity do not suffer from truncation bias. The sons in rural India faced lower educational mobility compared with the sons in rural China in the 1970s to 1990s. To understand the role of genetic inheritance, Altonji and others (2005) sensitivity analysis is combined with the evidence on intergenerational correlation in cognitive ability in economics and behavioral genetics literature. The observed persistence can be due solely to genetic correlations in China, but not in India. Fathers' nonfarm occupation and education were complementary in determining a sons' schooling in India, but separable in China. There is evidence of emerging complementarity for the younger cohorts in rural China. Structural change in favor of the nonfarm sector contributed to educational inequality in rural India. Evidence from supplementary data on economic mechanisms suggests that the model provides plausible explanations for the contrasting roles of occupational dualism in intergenerational educational mobility in rural India and rural China.


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Gender, Geography and Generations : Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Post-Reform India
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Year: 2012 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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India experienced sustained economic growth for more than two decades following the economic liberalization in 1991. While economic growth reduced poverty significantly, it was associated with an increase in inequality. Does this increase in inequality reflect deep-seated inequality of opportunity or efficient incentive structure in a market oriented economy? This paper provides evidence on economic mobility in post-reform India by focusing on the educational attainment of children. It uses two related measures of immobility: sibling and intergenerational correlations. The paper analyzes the trends in and patterns of educational mobility from 1992/93 to 2006, with a special emphasis on the roles played by gender and geography. The evidence shows that family background plays a strong role; the estimated sibling correlation in India in 2006 is higher than the available estimates for Latin American countries. There is a persistent gender gap in rural and less-developed areas. The only group that experienced substantial improvements is women in urban and developed areas, with the lower caste women benefiting the most. Almost 70 percent of the variance in children's education can be accounted for by parental education and geographic location. The authors provide possible explanations for the apparently puzzling improvements for urban women in a country with strong son preference.


Book
When Measure Matters : Coresidency, Truncation Bias, and Intergenerational Mobility in Developing Countries
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Year: 2016 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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Biases from truncation caused by coresidency restriction have been a challenge for research on intergenerational mobility. Estimates of intergenerational schooling persistence from two data sets show that the intergenerational regression coefficient, the most widely used measure, is severely biased downward in coresident samples. But the bias in intergenerational correlation is much smaller, and is less sensitive to the coresidency rate. The paper provides explanations for these results. Comparison of intergenerational mobility based on the intergenerational regression coefficient across countries, gender, and over time can be misleading. Much progress on intergenerational mobility in developing countries can be made with the available data by focusing on intergenerational correlation.


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The Middle Class in the Philippines : An Exploration of the Conditions for Upward Mobility.
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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A decade of rapid economic growth has supported upward mobility and the expansion of the middle class in the Philippines. While the Philippines' record of economic growth has been sound, many East Asian countries have performed better, resulting in higher levels of economic mobility and more rapid middle-class expansion. This study aims to inform these efforts through an in-depth examination of varying factors that affect upward mobility and middle-class expansion in the Philippines.


Book
The Rural-Urban Divide and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in a Developing Country : Theory and Evidence from Indonesia
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Year: 2020 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : The World Bank,

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This paper provides an analysis of the rural-urban divide in intergenerational educational mobility in Indonesia with two distinguishing features. First, the estimating equations are derived from theory incorporating rural-urban differences in returns to education and school quality, and possible complementarity between parent's education and financial investment. Second, the data are suitable for tackling the biases from sample truncation due to coresidency and omitted cognitive ability heterogeneity. The evidence rejects the workhorse linear intergenerational educational persistence equation in favor of a convex relation in rural and urban Indonesia. The rural-urban relative mobility curves cross, with the children of low educated fathers enjoying higher relative mobility in rural areas, while the pattern flips in favor of the urban children when the father has more than nine years of schooling. However, the rural children face lower absolute mobility across the whole distribution of father's schooling. Estimates from the investment equation suggest that, in urban areas, children's peers are complementary to financial investment by parents, while the adult role models are substitutes. In contrast, separability holds in villages. Peers and role models are not responsible for the convexity in both rural and urban areas, suggesting more efficient investment by educated parents as a likely mechanism, as proposed by Becker and others (2015, 2018). The theoretical relation between the intercepts of the mobility and investment equations helps in understand whether school quality is complementary to or a substitute for parental financial investment. This paper finds evidence of substitutability, implying that public investment to improve the quality of rural schools is desirable on both equity and efficiency grounds.

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